The Dixit-Pindyck model was applied to examine the hypothesis that uncertainty associated with grapefruit production costs and returns is an important determinant of Texas grapefruit growers' investment behavior. Freezes, price variability, and the effects of expanded trade were analyzed as risk factors. An investment decision rule based on a net-present value calculation would approve a 25-year commitment to a 20-acre grapefruit grove, given a 6-percent discount rate. The modified hurdle rate, calculated using an ex ante version of the Dixit-Pindyck model, is 24 percent. The major source of the risk borne by Texas grapefruit investors is from freezes, rather than from expanded trade.

This paper analyses the world demand for fibers using the system-wide approach with three dimensions—product × space × time. We investigate to what extent differences in international consumption patterns of fibers can be explained by differences in incomes and prices faced by different consumers. A novel approach to cross-country consumption comparisons is employed to avoid the troublesome problem of what exchange rates to use when converting data into a common currency unit. We use data from the ten largest consuming countries to estimate demand systems and then examine how they perform in predicting consumption patterns in a large number of out-of-sample countries.

Factors unique to the turkey industry suggest that conclusions concerning market structure and demand specification drawn from aggregate poultry data cannot necessarily be extrapolated to the turkey industry. The Wu-Hausman endogeneity test is used to examine demand specifications and industry structure specifically for turkey meat. In contrast to general poultry, quantity—not price—is found to be predetermined in demand models that use annual turkey data. Quarterly demand analysis suggests this result stems from biological cycles that limit a producer's ability to react to price change and the use of a weighted average for determining price and quantity.

This study adopted the scaling approach to examine the impacts of inventories on tuna auction prices in Japan using the Rotterdam inverse demand system. The inclusion of two inventory variables in the model only increases the number of parameters by two. Results indicate that frozen tunas are more likely to be close substitutes, fresh and frozen tunas of the same species are also likely to be substitutes, and inventory had significant impacts on auction prices.

Agricultural policy in the U.S. is examined in a metaphorical context. It is likened to securing a place at a large family dinner table. Until the early 1970s effective and relatively comprehensive agricultural policy shifts could be largely effected through the “USDA dinner table,” (and its affiliates). Today, meaningful agricultural policy is crafted and implemented at a number of other big policy tables, e.g., energy and the environment, education, health and human services.

Using recent advances in the stochastic production frontier framework, this paper presents an empirical analysis of technical, allocative and economic efficiency of a sample of organic and conventional cotton farms located in Greece. The results suggest that both farm types in the sample examined are technically, allocatively and economically inefficient. Farmer's age and education and farm size are important factors in explaining differentials in efficiency estimates. In comparative terms, organic farms exhibit lower efficiency scores vis-à-vis their conventional counterparts in terms of technical and economic efficiency; regarding allocative efficiency both farm types are almost equally inefficient. Low efficiency scores in both types of farming may be attributed to the respective intervention policies of the last 20 years.

Using optimization techniques in a Simulation framework, this study demonstrates the synergy between risk balancing and alternative strategies in effectively reducing risk under changing farm conditions. Highly risk-averse farmers tend to prefer integrated risk-management plans, based on the diversification principle, that yield offsetting combinations of the risk-reducing benefits of most strategies and the profit-generating capacities of the others. The greater appeal of a more diversified plan usually downplays the risk balancing strategy as the farm utilizes credit reserves to implement other production and marketing plans considered essential to Overall risk reduction. The farm, however, still realizes overall, though more regulated, reduction in its financial risk position.

In many parts of the U.S., beef cattle production is a large sector of the agricultural economy, yet few of the cattle are stockered; instead the production is focused on cow-calf operations only. Restricting their Operation to only the first phase of beef production may be limiting the cattle owners’ profit potential. This paper examines the opportunities for Operators to earn additional profit from stockering cattle. Using a representative risk-averse producer, a decision set with seven possible marketing strategies is evaluated for the optimal decision in a Bayesian framework which allows for price and production risk. We find that in many instances retaining the cattle for stockering is a superior decision when done in conjunction with specific hedging strategies utilizing options and futures contracts.

Colleges of veterinary medicine are often asked to provide evidence of the economic impacts of their activities. This paper presents methods for evaluating a veterinary college and applies them to the Virginia-Maryland Regional College of Veterinary Medicine. It assesses short-run impacts on income and employment using input-output analysis. Long-run benefits are estimated using a combination of economic surplus analysis, travel cost analysis and demand estimation, animal-owner willingness-to-pay based on a survey of practicing veterinarians, and earnings differentials.

A Just-Pope model was developed to assess tillage, nitrogen, weather, and pest effects on risk for cotton grown after alternative winter cover crops. Yield risk for cotton after hairy vetch was less than for cotton with no winter cover when no nitrogen fertilizer was used to Supplement the vetch nitrogen. However, because cotton after vetch has a higher production cost, farmers growing conventionally tilled cotton may be slow to adopt because risk-return tradeoffs may be unacceptable under risk neutrality and risk aversion. For risk-averse farmers who have already adopted no tillage, cotton grown after hairy vetch is risk efficient.

Regional water scarcity has motivated the South Central Texas Regional Water Planning Group to actively develop water management plans to address long-/short-term regional water needs. This study, therefore, develops an integrated Edwards Aquifer groundwater and river system simulation model to determine the “best” choice of regional water management plans using mixed-integer linear programming. The economic, hydrologic, and environmental consequences of the “best” choice of regional and other water management plans and options are evaluated and compared. Results indicate a tradeoff between the economic and environmental benefits. A slight decrease in economic benefit results in a substantial increase in environmental benefit.

Private investment in plant breeding has been increasing while public plant breeding has stagnated or declined. Moreover, research investment among crop commodities is uneven. Using a comprehensive survey of U.S. plant breeders from 1994, we use a simultaneous equations model to examine incentives and public-private tradeoffs in plant breeding research among 84 crop commodities. Allocation of private breeders among crops is strongly influenced by market size, hybrid seed technology, and ease of breeding improvement. In general, the allocation of public breeders does not appear to “crowd out” private breeders, but some competition may occur in applied breeding. Public breeding declines as private breeding increases on a commodity. Public breeding is also affected by market size, ease of breeding improvement, and political influence.

Some suppliers of broilers without giblets (WOG) offer customers a choice between paying Urner Barry's WOG quote or a formula price based on futures prices. From a buyer's perspective, the formula price examined in this study is second-degree stochastic dominant. The formula price allows the seller to set perfect cross-hedges of WOGs with corn and soymeal. Stochastic dominance and mean variance results suggested that the seller's dominant strategy would shift from the Urner Barry quote to the hedged formula price as risk aversion increased. Input-based formula pricing may be usefully extended to other industries.

The willingness to plant identity preserved (IP) crops was examined using Mississippi soybean producers as an example. A contingent valuation framework was used to assess the impacts of offered premiums on a producer's probability of planting IP soybeans. Findings suggest that offered premiums significantly affect planting decisions. In addition, desire to learn more about IP production was found to increase the probability of planting, suggesting that desire to learn leads to experimentation. Finally, prior knowledge or experience planting IP crops significantly decreased the probability of planting.