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Identifying key environmental drivers of chickpea yield and water-use efficiency: a statistical modelling approach

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  10 September 2025

Muhuddin Rajin Anwar Open the ORCID record for Muhuddin Rajin Anwar [Opens in a new window] ,
David John Luckett ,
Ryan H. L. Ip ,
Yashvir Chauhan ,
Neroli Graham ,
Rosy Raman ,
Mark F. Richards ,
Jens Berger  and
Maheswaran Rohan
Muhuddin Rajin Anwar*
Affiliation:
NSW Department of Primary Industries and Regional Development, Wagga Wagga Agricultural Institute, Wagga Wagga, NSW 2650, Australia Gulbali Institute (Agriculture, Water and Environment), Charles Sturt University, Locked Bag 588, Wagga Wagga, NSW 2678, Australia
David John Luckett
Affiliation:
Gulbali Institute (Agriculture, Water and Environment), Charles Sturt University, Locked Bag 588, Wagga Wagga, NSW 2678, Australia
Ryan H. L. Ip
Affiliation:
Department of Mathematical Sciences, Auckland University of Technology, Auckland, New Zealand School of Computing and Mathematics, Charles Sturt University, Wagga Wagga, NSW, Australia
Yashvir Chauhan
Affiliation:
Queensland Department of Primary Industries Research Station, Kingaroy, Qld 4610, Australia
Neroli Graham
Affiliation:
NSW Department of Primary Industries and Regional Development, Wagga Wagga Agricultural Institute, Wagga Wagga, NSW 2650, Australia
Rosy Raman
Affiliation:
NSW Department of Primary Industries and Regional Development, Wagga Wagga Agricultural Institute, Wagga Wagga, NSW 2650, Australia
Mark F. Richards
Affiliation:
NSW Department of Primary Industries and Regional Development, Wagga Wagga Agricultural Institute, Wagga Wagga, NSW 2650, Australia
Jens Berger
Affiliation:
CSIRO Agriculture and Food, PMB5, Wembley, WA 6913, Australia
Maheswaran Rohan
Affiliation:
NSW Department of Primary Industries and Regional Development, Wagga Wagga Agricultural Institute, Wagga Wagga, NSW 2650, Australia
*
Corresponding author: Muhuddin Rajin Anwar; Emails: muhuddin.anwar@dpi.nsw.gov.au and 1anwar191962@gmail.com
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Abstract

Chickpea (Cicer arietinum L.) is a vital legume crop with significant global importance, yet its productivity is highly sensitive to environmental variability. This study employed advanced statistical modelling to identify key environmental drivers of chickpea yield and water-use efficiency (WUE). Field trial data from 29 experiments across 10 Australian locations were analysed, focusing on 19 climatic variables across four growth stages: sowing to flowering, flowering to podding, podding to maturity and the critical period around flowering. Using correlation analysis and Exclusive LASSO regression, the study quantified relationships between environmental factors, growth stages and chickpea performance metrics. Key findings identified soil evaporation and soil moisture supply-demand ratio during the sowing-to-flowering stage, along with frost during the critical period, as significant determinants of yield. Frost negatively impacted WUE across multiple growth stages, while mean photothermal quotient during early growth positively influenced transpiration-based WUE. Predictive models developed using daily climate data demonstrated strong performance (R2 > 0.68–0.72) for yield and WUE predictions. The study provides actionable insights for optimising chickpea production under varying environmental conditions, offering practical tools for farmers and agronomists to enhance crop management strategies, supporting sustainable and profitable chickpea farming in Australia and beyond.

Keywords

Abiotic stresscrop growth stagesCicer arietinum L.exclusive LASSO predictionshrinkage estimator

Information

Type
Crops and Soils Research Paper
Information
The Journal of Agricultural Science , Volume 163 , Issue 5 , October 2025 , pp. 532 - 546
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Copyright
© The Author(s), 2025. Published by Cambridge University Press

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