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Comparing the performance of 11 crop simulation models in predicting yield response to nitrogen fertilization

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  22 December 2015

T. J. SALO ,
T. PALOSUO ,
K. C. KERSEBAUM ,
C. NENDEL ,
C. ANGULO ,
F. EWERT ,
M. BINDI ,
P. CALANCA ,
T. KLEIN  and
M. MORIONDO
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T. J. SALO*
Affiliation:
Natural Resources Institute Finland, 31600 Jokioinen, Finland
T. PALOSUO
Affiliation:
Natural Resources Institute Finland, 50100 Mikkeli, Finland
K. C. KERSEBAUM
Affiliation:
Leibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research (ZALF), Institute of Landscape Systems Analysis, Eberswalder Straße 84, 15374 Müncheberg, Germany
C. NENDEL
Affiliation:
Leibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research (ZALF), Institute of Landscape Systems Analysis, Eberswalder Straße 84, 15374 Müncheberg, Germany
C. ANGULO
Affiliation:
University of Bonn, Institute of Crop Science and Resource Conservation, Katzenburgweg 5, 53115 Bonn, Germany
F. EWERT
Affiliation:
University of Bonn, Institute of Crop Science and Resource Conservation, Katzenburgweg 5, 53115 Bonn, Germany
M. BINDI
Affiliation:
DISPAA, Department of Agri-food Production and Environmental Sciences, University of Florence, Piazzale delle Cascine 18, 50144 Florence, Italy
P. CALANCA
Affiliation:
Agroscope Reckenholz-Tänikon ART, 8046 Zurich, Switzerland
T. KLEIN
Affiliation:
Agroscope Reckenholz-Tänikon ART, 8046 Zurich, Switzerland
M. MORIONDO
Affiliation:
National Research Council of Italy, IBIMET-CNR, Institute of Biometeorology, via Caproni 8, 50145 Florence, Italy
R. FERRISE
Affiliation:
DISPAA, Department of Agri-food Production and Environmental Sciences, University of Florence, Piazzale delle Cascine 18, 50144 Florence, Italy
J. E. OLESEN
Affiliation:
Department of Agroecology, Aarhus University, Blichers Allé 20, DK-8830 Tjele, Denmark
R. H. PATIL
Affiliation:
Department of Agroecology, Aarhus University, Blichers Allé 20, DK-8830 Tjele, Denmark Department of Agronomy, University of Agricultural Sciences, 580005 Dharwad, India
F. RUGET
Affiliation:
INRA, UMR 1114 EMMAH Environement et Agronomie, F-84000, Avignon, France
J. TAKÁČ
Affiliation:
National Agricultural and Food Centre – Soil Science and Conservation Research Institute, Gagarinova 10, 827 13 Bratislava, Slovak Republic
P. HLAVINKA
Affiliation:
Global Change Research Centre AS CR, v.v.i., Bělidla 986/4a, 603 00 Brno, Czech Republic Institute of Agrosystems and Bioclimatology, Mendel University in Brno, Zemedelska 1, Brno 613 00, Czech Republic
M. TRNKA
Affiliation:
Global Change Research Centre AS CR, v.v.i., Bělidla 986/4a, 603 00 Brno, Czech Republic Institute of Agrosystems and Bioclimatology, Mendel University in Brno, Zemedelska 1, Brno 613 00, Czech Republic
R. P. RÖTTER
Affiliation:
Natural Resources Institute Finland, 50100 Mikkeli, Finland
*
* To whom all correspondence should be addressed. Email: tapio.salo@luke.fi
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Summary

Eleven widely used crop simulation models (APSIM, CERES, CROPSYST, COUP, DAISY, EPIC, FASSET, HERMES, MONICA, STICS and WOFOST) were tested using spring barley (Hordeum vulgare L.) data set under varying nitrogen (N) fertilizer rates from three experimental years in the boreal climate of Jokioinen, Finland. This is the largest standardized crop model inter-comparison under different levels of N supply to date. The models were calibrated using data from 2002 and 2008, of which 2008 included six N rates ranging from 0 to 150 kg N/ha. Calibration data consisted of weather, soil, phenology, leaf area index (LAI) and yield observations. The models were then tested against new data for 2009 and their performance was assessed and compared with both the two calibration years and the test year. For the calibration period, root mean square error between measurements and simulated grain dry matter yields ranged from 170 to 870 kg/ha. During the test year 2009, most models failed to accurately reproduce the observed low yield without N fertilizer as well as the steep yield response to N applications. The multi-model predictions were closer to observations than most single-model predictions, but multi-model mean could not correct systematic errors in model simulations. Variation in soil N mineralization and LAI development due to differences in weather not captured by the models most likely was the main reason for their unsatisfactory performance. This suggests the need for model improvement in soil N mineralization as a function of soil temperature and moisture. Furthermore, specific weather event impacts such as low temperatures after emergence in 2009, tending to enhance tillering, and a high precipitation event just before harvest in 2008, causing possible yield penalties, were not captured by any of the models compared in the current study.

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Type
Crops and Soils Research Papers
Information
The Journal of Agricultural Science , Volume 154 , Issue 7 , September 2016 , pp. 1218 - 1240
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Copyright © Cambridge University Press 2015 

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