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Convergence properties of age distributions

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  14 July 2016

G. A. Keenay ,
R. W. Morgan  and
K. H. Ray
G. A. Keenay
Affiliation:
University of Cambridge
R. W. Morgan
Affiliation:
University of Cambridge
K. H. Ray
Affiliation:
University of Cambridge
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Abstract

The literature on supply models for manpower planning in a hierarchy shows that an important consideration is the size of the discrepancy between the age distribution of the population and the stationary age distribution which would be reached if present policies were continued indefinitely. We establish the convergence properties of age distribution in various cases and show under what circumstances a convergent age distribution exists. In the convergent case we examine both the speed of convergence and the form of the stationary age distribution.

Keywords

POPULATION GROWTH MODELSMANPOWER PLANNINGCONVERGENCE OF MARKOV CHAINS

Information

Type
Research Papers
Information
Journal of Applied Probability , Volume 12 , Issue 4 , December 1975 , pp. 684 - 691
Copyright
Copyright © Applied Probability Trust 1975 

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References

[1] Keenay, G. A. (1974) Manpower Planning in Large Organisations: A Statistical Approach. Ph.D. Thesis, Cambridge.Google Scholar
[2] Morgan, R. W. (1971) The use of a steady state model for manpower planning, in Manpower and Management Science , ed. Bartholomew, D. J. and Smith, A. R. English University Press, London.Google Scholar
[3] Ray, K. H. (1973) A Mathematical System for Career Planning in a Hierarchy. Ph.D. Thesis, Cambridge.Google Scholar
[4] Pollard, J. H. (1973) Mathematical Models for the Growth of Human Populations. Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
[5] Vajda, S. (1947) The stratified semi-stationary population. Biometrika 34, 243–254.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed