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The cost of a general stochastic epidemic

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  14 July 2016

J. Gani  and
D. Jerwood
J. Gani
Affiliation:
University of Sheffield
D. Jerwood
Affiliation:
University of Bradford
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Abstract

This paper is concerned with the cost Cis = aWis + bTis (a, b > 0) of a general stochastic epidemic starting with i infectives and s susceptibles; Tis denotes the duration of the epidemic, and Wis the area under the infective curve. The joint Laplace-Stieltjes transform of (Wis, Tis ) is studied, and a recursive equation derived for it. The duration Tis and its mean Nis are considered in some detail, as are also Wis and its mean Mis . Using the results obtained, bounds are found for the mean cost of the epidemic.

Keywords

GENERAL STOCHASTIC EPIDEMICDURATIONSTOCHASTIC PATH INTEGRALCOSTBOUNDS FOR COST

Information

Type
Research Papers
Information
Journal of Applied Probability , Volume 9 , Issue 2 , June 1972 , pp. 257 - 269
Copyright
Copyright © Applied Probability Trust 1972 

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