Hostname: page-component-76fb5796d-vfjqv Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-04-29T19:48:08.285Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

The expected ultimate size of a carrier-borne epidemic

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  14 July 2016

Claude Lefèvre
Claude Lefèvre*
Affiliation:
Université Libre de Bruxelles
Get access Rights & Permissions [Opens in a new window]

Abstract

This paper is concerned with the expected ultimate size of the Downton carrier-borne epidemic (1968). The solution obtained is slightly recursive and it may be expressed as a power series in π, the proportion of the infected susceptibles becoming carriers. It generalizes the results of Dietz (1966) and Abakuks (1973) for some special cases of this model.

Keywords

CARRIER-BORNE EPIDEMICSEXPECTED ULTIMATE SIZE
Type
Short Communications
Information
Journal of Applied Probability , Volume 15 , Issue 2 , June 1978 , pp. 414 - 419
Copyright
Copyright © Applied Probability Trust 1978 

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

Abakuks, A. (1973) An optimal isolation policy for an epidemic. J. Appl. Prob. 10, 247–262.Google Scholar
Bailey, N. T. J. (1957) The Mathematical Theory of Epidemics. Griffin, London.Google Scholar
Dietz, K. (1966) On the model of Weiss for the spread of epidemics by carriers. J. Appl. Prob. 3, 357–382.Google Scholar
Downton, F. (1968) The ultimate size of carrier-borne epidemics. Biometrika 55, 277–289.Google Scholar
Gani, J. and Jerwood, D. (1972) The cost of a general stochastic epidemic. J. Appl. Prob. 9, 257–269.Google Scholar
Lefèvre, Cl. (1976) Le coût d'une épidémie du type “Downton”. Mém. Lic. Sc. Actuarielles (non publié). Université Libre de Bruxelles.Google Scholar
Weiss, G. H. (1965) On the spread of epidemics by carriers. Biometrics 21, 481–490.Google Scholar