Hostname: page-component-8448b6f56d-t5pn6 Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-04-19T19:16:24.669Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

Relative quiescence within the Jiashi swarm in Xinjiang, China: an application of the ETAS point process model

Part of: Geophysics Inference from stochastic processes Geophysics (general) Stochastic processes

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  14 July 2016

Li Ma  and
Jiancang Zhuang
Li Ma*
Affiliation:
China Seismological Bureau
Jiancang Zhuang*
Affiliation:
China Seismological Bureau
*
1Postal address: Center for Analysis and Prediction, China Seismological Bureau, PO Box 166, Beijing 100036, China. Email: mali@seis.ac.cn
2Postal address: Dept Statistical Science, Graduate University for Advanced studies, 4–5–6 Minami Azabu, Minato-ku, Tokyo, 106–8659, Japan. Email: zhuangjc@ism.ac.jp
Get access Rights & Permissions [Opens in a new window]

Abstract

This paper uses the epidemic-type aftershock sequence (ETAS) point process model to study certain seismicity features of the Jiashi swarm of certain earthquakes, investigating in particular whether there is relative quiescence prior to the quite big events within the Jiashi sequence. The seven earthquake sequences studied occurred in the region of Jiashi, south of Tianshan Mountain, Xinjiang, China. The particular ETAS model that is developed is consistent with the reality of seismic activity. The various features of Jiashi swarm activity can be described as focusing in different stages. There is obvious precursory quiescence prior to most big events with Ms ≥ 6.0 within the Jiashi swarm. Thus, checking for relative quiescence can be use for earthquake prediction.

Keywords

Earthquake sequencequiescenceOmori formulaETAS point process model

MSC classification

Primary: 86A15: Seismology
Secondary: 60G55: Point processes 62M10: Time series, auto-correlation, regression, etc.
Type
Models and statistics in seismology
Information
Journal of Applied Probability , Volume 38 , Issue A: Probability, Statistics and Seismology , 2001 , pp. 213 - 221
Copyright
Copyright © Applied Probability Trust 2001 

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

Ma, L. and Zhuang, J. (1999). Estimation the seismicity tendency of the Zhangbi sequence using the statistical model for point processes (in Chinese). In 1998 Zhangbei Earthquake , Seismological Press: Beijing, 6–10.Google Scholar
Mogi, K. (1985). Earthquake Prediction. Academic Press, Tokyo.Google Scholar
Ogaya, Y. (1988). Statistical models for earthquake occurrences and residual analysis for point processes. J. Amer. Statist. Assoc. 83, 9–27.Google Scholar
Ogata, Y. (1992). Detection of precursory relative quiescence before great earthquakes through a statistical model. J. Geophys. Res. 97, 19845–19871.Google Scholar
Omori, F. (1894). On the after-shock of earthquakes. J. Coll. Sci. Imp. Univ. Tokyo 7, 111–200.Google Scholar
Utsu, T. (1961). A statistical study on the occurrence of aftershocks. Geophys. Mag. 30, 521–605.Google Scholar
Zhang, G. et al. (1999). Predictions of the 1997 strong earthquakes in Jiashi, Xinjiang, China. Bull. Sinica Seismol. Assoc. 89(5), 1171–1183.Google Scholar
Zhuang, J. and Ma, L. (2000). Main shock and after shock–from the Omori formula to the ETAS model. In Recent Developments in World Seismology 5, 12–18 (in Chinese).Google Scholar