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A threshold theorem for the Reed-Frost chain-binomial epidemic

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  14 July 2016

Frank Ball
Frank Ball*
Affiliation:
University of Sussex
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Abstract

We prove a threshold theorem for the Reed–Frost chain-binomial model which is analogous to the threshold theorem of Williams (1971) for the general stochastic epidemic. We show that when the population size is large a ‘true epidemic’ occurs with a non-zero probability if and only if an initial infective individual infects on average more than one susceptible individual.

Keywords

EPIDEMICSTHRESHOLD THEOREMSSIZE OF EPIDEMICRANDOM GRAPHTREES
Type
Short Communications
Information
Journal of Applied Probability , Volume 20 , Issue 1 , March 1983 , pp. 153 - 157
Copyright
Copyright © Applied Probability Trust 1983 

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References

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