Hostname: page-component-76fb5796d-dfsvx Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-04-28T17:58:30.850Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false

The transition probabilities of the general stochastic epidemic model

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  14 July 2016

Richard J. Kryscio*
Affiliation:
Northern Illinois University

Abstract

Recently, Billard (1973) derived a solution to the forward equations of the general stochastic model. This solution contains some recursively defined constants. In this paper we solve these forward equations along each of the paths the process can follow to absorption. A convenient method of combining the solutions for the different paths results in a simplified non-recursive expression for the transition probabilities of the process.

Type
Research Papers
Copyright
Copyright © Applied Probability Trust 1975 

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

Bailey, N. T. J. (1957) The Mathematical Theory of Epidemics. Charles Griffin and Co., Ltd., London.Google Scholar
Bartlett, M. S. (1949) Some evolutionary stochastic processes. J. R. Statist. Soc. B 11, 211222.Google Scholar
Billard, L. (1973) Factorial moments and probabilities for the general stochastic epidemic. J. Appl. Prob. 10, 277288.Google Scholar
Downton, F. (1967) A note on the ultimate size of a general stochastic epidemic. Biometrika 54, 314316.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Feller, W. (1968) An Introduction to Probability Theory and its Applications. Vol. 1, 3rd ed. John Wiley, New York.Google Scholar
Gani, J. (1965) On a partial differential equation of epidemic theory. I. Biometrika 52, 617622.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Kryscio, R. J. (1972) The transition probabilities of the extended simple stochastic epidemic model and the Haskey model. J. Appl. Prob. 9, 471485.Google Scholar
Siskind, V. (1965) A solution of the general stochastic epidemic. Biometrika 52, 613616.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Severo, N. C. (1967) Two theorems on solutions of differential-difference equations and applications to epidemic theory. J. Appl. Prob. 4, 271280.Google Scholar
Severo, N. C. (1969a) A recursion theorem on solving differential-difference equations and applications to some stochastic processes. J. Appl. Prob. 6, 673681.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Severo, N. C. (1969b) Generalizations on some stochastic epidemic models. Math. Biosciences 4, 395402.Google Scholar