Hostname: page-component-5db58dd55d-htx7c Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2026-06-06T01:44:00.242Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

DIFFERENTIAL RESPONSES IN FIRST BIRTH BEHAVIOUR TO ECONOMIC RECESSION IN THE UNITED KINGDOM

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  15 June 2017

Mark Lyons-Amos  and
Ingrid Schoon
Mark Lyons-Amos*
Affiliation:
Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, UK Institute of Education, University College London, UK
Ingrid Schoon
Affiliation:
Institute of Education, University College London, UK Wissenschaftszentrum, Berlin, Germany
*
1 Corresponding author. Email: mark.lyons-amos@lshtm.ac.uk
Get access Rights & Permissions [Opens in a new window]

Summary

Economic conditions have dramatic influences on fertility. This paper evaluates the effect of the 2008 ‘Great Recession’ in the UK on first birth rate, which is the fertility behaviour most susceptible to external economic conditions. The key aim of the study was to assess the effect of the recession on fertility by individual-level characteristics, enabling variation in responses to economic hardship to be observed. Data were from the nationally representative UK Household Longitudinal Study (UK-HLS). Cumulative transition models were used to model the probability of first birth for women between the ages of 17 and 30 in three UK birth cohorts. The effect of the recession was captured using direct measures (local unemployment rates and individual unemployment status) and a pre-/post-comparison, capturing indirect effects. In general, higher birth rates were observed among more disadvantaged women compared with advantaged groups. The effect of the recession was disaggregated by social strata; the overall effect was counter-cyclical although at a slower rate among disadvantaged women.

Information

Type
Research Article
Information
Journal of Biosocial Science , Volume 50 , Issue 2 , March 2018 , pp. 275 - 290
Copyright
Copyright © Cambridge University Press, 2017 

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

Article purchase

Temporarily unavailable

References

Andersson, G. (2000) The impact of labour-force participation on childbearing behavior: pro-cyclical fertility in Sweden during the 1980s and the 1990s. European Journal of Population 16(4), 293–333.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bernardi, L., Klaerner, A. & von der Lippe, H. (2007) Job insecurity and the timing of parenthood: a comparison between Eastern and Western Germany. European Journal of Population 2, 287–313.Google Scholar
Berrington, A. (2004) Perpetual postponers? Women’s, men’s and couple’s fertility intentions and subsequent fertility behaviour. Population Trends 117, 9–19.Google Scholar
Cherlin, A. J., Cumberworth, E., Morgan, S. P. & Wimer, C. (2013) The effects of the Great Recession on family structure and fertility. Annals of the American Academy of Political and Social Science 650, 214–231.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Elzinga, C. & Liefbroer, A. C. (2007) De-standardization of family-life trajectories of young adults: a cross-national comparison using sequence analysis. European Journal of Population 23(3), 225–250.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Frejka, T. & Sardon, J. P. (2007) Cohort birth order, parity progression ratio and parity distribution trends in developed countries. Demographic Research 16(11), 315–374.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Goldstein, J. R., Kreyenfeld, M., Jasilioniene, A. & Orsal, D. K. (2013) Fertility reactions to the Great Recession in Europe: recent evidence from order-specific data. Demographic Research 29, 85–104.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Goldstein, J. R., Sobotka, T. & Jasilioniene, A. (2009) The end of lowest-low fertility? Population and Development Review 35(4), 663–700.Google Scholar
Heuveline, P. & Timberlake, J. M. (2004) The role of cohabitation in family formation: the United States in comparative perspective. Journal of Marriage and Family 66(5), 1214–1230.Google Scholar
Hinde, A. (2003) England’s Population: A History Since the Domesday Survey. Hodder Arnold, London.Google Scholar
Holland, J. A. (2012) Home and where the heart is: marriage timing and joint home purchase. European Journal of Population/Revue Européenne de Démographie 28(1), 65–89.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Kohler, H-P., Billari, F. C. & Ortega, J. A. (2002) The emergence of lowest-low fertility in Europe: fertility in Europe during the 1990s. Population and Development Review 28(4), 641–680.Google Scholar
Kohler, H-P. & Kohler, I. (2002) Fertility decline in Russia in the early and mid 1990s: the role of economic uncertainty and labour market crises. European Journal of Population 18, 233–262.Google Scholar
Kravdal, O. (1994) The importance of economic activity, economic potential and economic resources for the timing of first births in Norway. Population Studies 48, 249–267.Google Scholar
Kreyenfeld, M. (2005) Economic Uncertainty and Fertility Postponement. Evidence from German Panel Data. MPIDR Working Papers WP 2005-034, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock.Google Scholar
McDonald, P. (2000) Gender equity, social institutions and the future of fertility. Journal of Population Research 17, 1–16.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
McLanahan, S. (2004) Diverging destinies: how children fare under the second demographic transition. Demography 41(4), 607–627.Google Scholar
Mills, M. & Blossfeld, H. P. (2003) Globalization, uncertainty and changes in early life courses. Zeitschrift für Erziehungswissenschaft 6(2), 188–218.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Neels, K., Theunynck, Z. & Wood, J. (2013) Economic recession and first births in Europe: recession-induced postponement and recuperation of fertility in 14 European countries between 1970 and 2005. International Journal of Public Health 58(1), 43–55.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Ní Bhrolcháin, M. & Beaujouan, E. (2012) Fertility postponement is largely due to rising educational enrolment. Population Studies 66(3), 311–327.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Perelli-Harris, B. (2003) Young mothers, only children: lowest-low fertility in Ukraine. In Annual Meeting of the Population Association of America, New York, US, 1st–3rd May 2003.Google Scholar
Perelli-Harris, B. (2006) The influence of informal work and subjective well-being on childbearing in post-Soviet Russia. Population and Development Review 32, 729–753.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Perelli-Harris, B. & Lyons-Amos, M. (2015) Changes in partnership patterns across the life course: an examination of 14 countries in Europe and the United States. Demographic Research 33(6), 145–178.Google Scholar
Schoon, I. & Lyons-Amos, M. (2016) Diverse pathways in becoming an adult: the role of structure, agency and context. Research in Social Stratification and Mobility 46, 11–20.Google Scholar
Sobotka, T. (2004) Is lowest-low fertility in Europe explained by the postponement of childbearing? Population and Development Review 30(2), 195–220.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Sobotka, T., Skirbekk, V. & Philipov, D. (2011) Economic recession and fertility in the developed world. Population and Development Review 37(2), 267–306.Google Scholar
Testa, M. R. & Basten, S. (2014) Certainty of meeting fertility intentions declines in Europe during the ‘Great Recession’. Demographic Research 31(23), 687–734.Google Scholar
Vikat, A. (2004) Women’s labour force attachment and childbearing in Finland. Demographic Research (Special Collection 3, Article 8). 177–212.Google Scholar
Witte, J. C. & Wagner, G. G. (1995) Declining fertility in East Germany after unification: a demographic response to socioeconomic change. Population and Development Review 21, 387–397.CrossRefGoogle Scholar