Skip to main content
×
Home
    • Aa
    • Aa

MIGRATION AND THE EQUILIBRIUM PREVALENCE OF INFECTIOUS DISEASES

  • Alice Mesnard (a1) and Paul Seabright (a2)
Abstract:
Abstract:

This paper models how migration both influences and responds to differences in disease prevalence between cities and shows how the possibility of migration away from high-prevalence areas affects long-run steady state disease prevalence. We develop a dynamic framework where migration responds to the prevalence of disease, to the costs of migration and to the costs of living. The model explores how pressure for migration in response to differing equilibrium levels of disease prevalence generates differences in city characteristics such as land rents. Competition for scarce housing in low-prevalence areas can create segregation, with disease concentrated in high-prevalence “sinks”. We show that policies affecting migration costs affect the steady-state disease prevalences across cities. In particular, migration can reduce steady-state disease incidence in low-prevalence areas while having no impact on prevalence in high-prevalence areas. This suggests that, in some circumstances, public health measures may need to avoid discouraging migration away from high-disease areas.

Copyright
References
Hide All
Acemoglu Daron, Simon Johnson and Robinson James (2001) Colonial origins of comparative development: An empirical investigation. American Economic Review 91, 13691401.
Auld M.C. (2003) Choice, beliefs, and infectious disease dynamics. Journal of Health Economics 22 (3), 361377.
Bauch C., Onofrio A.d. and Manfredi P. (2013) Behavioral epidemiology of infectious diseases: An overview. In Onofrio A.d. and Manfredi P. (eds.), Modeling the Interplay between Human Behavior and Spread of Infectious Diseases. New York: Springer.
Barreca Alan, Fishback Price and Kantor Shawn (2011) The impact of migration on malaria deaths in the early 20 century United States. mimeo, University of Tulane.
Bell Clive, Devarajan Shantayanan and Gersbach Hans (2006) The long-run economic costs of AIDS: A model with an application to South Africa. World Bank Economic Review 20, 5589.
Bell Clive and Gersbach Hans (2006) Growth and enduring epidemic diseases. CESifo Working Paper Series, CESifo GmbH.
Bénabou Roland (1996a) Equity and efficiency in human capital investment: The local connection. Review of Economic Studies 63, 237–64.
Bénabou Roland (1996b) Heterogeneity, stratification, and growth: Macroeconomic implications of community structure and school finance. American Economic Review 86, 584609.
Boily Marie-Claude (2002) The impact of migration patterns of female sex workers on a slow spreading HIV epidemic: Implications for prevention. Meeting on “Phase Specific Aspects of STD and HIV epidemiology and Prevention”.
Chen Frederik and Toxvaerd Flavio (2014) The economics of vaccination. Journal of Theoretical Biology 363, 105117.
Crosby Alfred (1986) Ecological Imperialism: The Biological Expansion of Europe 900–1900, New York: Cambridge University Press.
Duncan G.J., Daly M.C., McDonough P. and Williams D.R. (2002) Optimal indicators of socioeconomic status for health research. American Journal of Public Health 92 (7), 11511157.
Dupas Pascaline, Duflo Esther and Kremer Michael (2015) Education, HIV, and early fertility: Experimental evidence from Kenya. American Economic Review Vol. 105 (9), pp. 2257–97.
Ellickson Bryan (1971) Jurisdictional fragmentation and residential choice. American Economic Review 61, 334–39.
Epple Dennis (2003) Modeling population stratification across locations : An overview. International Science Review 26 (2), 189196.
Fenichel E.P. (2013) Economic considerations for social distancing and behavioral based policies during an epidemic. Journal of Health Economics 32 (2), 440451.
Fenichel E.P. and Wang X. (2013) The mechanism and phenomenon of adaptive human behavior during an epidemic and the role of information. In Onofrio A.d. and Manfredi P. (eds.), Modeling the Interplay between Human Behavior and Spread of Infectious Diseases. New York: Springer.
Fernandez Raquel and Rogerson Richard (1996) Income distribution, communities, and the quality of public education. Quarterly Journal of Economics 111, 135–64.
Finkelstein Amy, Luttmer Enzo F. P and Notowidigdo Matthew J. (2013) What a good is wealth without health? The effect of health on the marginal utility of consumption. Journal of the European Economic Association 11, 221258.
Geoffard Pierre Yves and Philipson Thomas (1996) Rational epidemics and their public control. International Economic Review 37 (3), 603624.
Gersovitz Mark and Hammer Jeffrey S. (2003) Infectious diseases, public policy and the marriage of economics and epidemiology. World Bank Research Observer 18, 129157.
Gersovitz Mark and Hammer Jeffrey S. (2004) The economical control of infectious diseases. Economic Journal 114, 127.
Hurd Michel, Adams Peter, McFadden Daniel, Merill Angela, and Ribeiro Tiago (2003) Healthy, wealth and Wise? Tests for direct causal paths between health and socioeconomic status. Journal of Econometrics 112 (1), 356.
Kremer Michael (2000) Creating markets for new vaccines. Part I: rationale and Part 2: Design Issues. Innovation Policy and the Economy, Volume 1 (2001), Jaffe Adam B., Lerner Josh and Stern Scott, editors (pp. 35118). Published in January 2001 by MIT Press in NBER Book Series Innovation Policy and the Economy.
Lurie M., Williams B., Zuma K., Mkaya-Mwamburi D., Garnett G.P., Sweat M.D., Gittelsohn J., and Abdool Karim S.S. (2003) Who infects whom? HIV concordance and discordance among migrant and non-migrant couples in South Africa. AIDS 17, 22452252.
McNeill William H. (1977) Plagues and people Doubleday, New York.
Marmot Michael G. (2002) The influence of income on health: Views of an epidemiologis. Health Affairs 21 (2), 3146.
Medlock J., Luz P.M., Struchiner C.J., and Galvani A.P. (2009) The impact of transgenic mosquitoes on dengue virulence to humans and mosquitoes. The American Naturalist 174 (4), 565577.
Mesnard Alice and Seabright Paul (2009) Escaping epidemics through migration? Quarantine measures under asymmetric information about infection risk. Journal of Public Economics 93, 931938.
Montalvo Jose G. and Reynal-Querol Marta (2007) Fighting against malaria: prevent wars while waiting for the miraculous vaccines. The Review of Economics and Statistics 89 (1), 165177.
Pattanayak Subhrendu, Poulos Christine and Yang Jui-Chen (2007) Modeling self-protection against infectious disease: Towards the theory of the economics of environmental epidemiology, RTI INternational, mimeo.
Philipson Thomas (2000) Handbook of Health Economics, Culyer and Newhouse, eds.: North-Holland.
d’Onofrio A., Manfredi P. and Salinelli E. (2013) Vaccinating behavior and the dynamics of vaccine preventable infections. In d’Onofrio A. and Manfredi P. (eds.), Modeling the Interplay between Human Behavior and Spread of Infectious Diseases. New York: Springer.
Reluga T.C. (2010) Game theory of social distancing. PLoS Computational Biology 6 (5), e1000793.
Sethi S.P. (1978) Optimal quarantine programmes for controlling an epidemic spread. Journal of the Operational Research Society 29, 265268.
Tiebout Charles M. (1956) A pure theory of local expenditures. Journal of Political Economy 64 (5), 416424.
Timmins Christopher (2005). Estimable equilibrium models of locational sorting and their role in development economics. Journal of Economic Geography 5, 83100.
Tocqueville Alexis de (1981) Journey to America, translated by Lawrence George and edited by Mayer J.P., revised in collaboration with A.P. Kerr, Greenwood Press Publishers, Westport, CT.
Wong Grace (2008) Has SARS infected the property market? Evidence from Hong Kong. Journal of Urban Economics 63 (1), 7495.
Recommend this journal

Email your librarian or administrator to recommend adding this journal to your organisation's collection.

Journal of Demographic Economics
  • ISSN: 2054-0892
  • EISSN: 2054-0906
  • URL: /core/journals/journal-of-demographic-economics
Please enter your name
Please enter a valid email address
Who would you like to send this to? *
×

Keywords:

Metrics

Full text views

Total number of HTML views: 5
Total number of PDF views: 32 *
Loading metrics...

Abstract views

Total abstract views: 198 *
Loading metrics...

* Views captured on Cambridge Core between September 2016 - 22nd October 2017. This data will be updated every 24 hours.