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Using intentions to predict fertility

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  01 March 2021

Johannes Norling Open the ORCID record for Johannes Norling [Opens in a new window]
Johannes Norling*
Affiliation:
Department of Economics, Mount Holyoke College, 50 College Street, South Hadley, MA 01075, USA
*
Corresponding author. E-mail: jnorling@mtholyoke.edu
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Abstract

On average, childless women observed by the Panel Study of Income Dynamics report that they intend to have more children than they actually have. A collection of intentions that record only whether respondents intend to have another child can more accurately predict the number of children they have. Errors in the formation of intentions are not required to explain this finding. Rather, if intentions record a survey respondent's most likely predicted number of children, then the average of these intentions does not necessarily equal average actual fertility, even if intentions are formed using rational expectations.

Keywords

Fertilityintentionsrational expectationssurvey methods

JEL classification

D84: Expectations • Speculations J13: Fertility • Family Planning • Child Care • Children • Youth C83: Survey Methods • Sampling Methods

Information

Type
Research Paper
Information
Journal of Demographic Economics , Volume 88 , Issue 3 , September 2022 , pp. 257 - 282
Copyright
Copyright © Université catholique de Louvain 2021

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