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GlacierMIP – A model intercomparison of global-scale glacier mass-balance models and projections

  • REGINE HOCK (a1) (a2), ANDREW BLISS (a3), BEN MARZEION (a4), RIANNE H. GIESEN (a5), YUKIKO HIRABAYASHI (a6), MATTHIAS HUSS (a7) (a8), VALENTINA RADIĆ (a9) and AIMÉE B. A. SLANGEN (a10)...

Abstract

Global-scale 21st-century glacier mass change projections from six published global glacier models are systematically compared as part of the Glacier Model Intercomparison Project. In total 214 projections of annual glacier mass and area forced by 25 General Circulation Models (GCMs) and four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) emission scenarios and aggregated into 19 glacier regions are considered. Global mass loss of all glaciers (outside the Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets) by 2100 relative to 2015 averaged over all model runs varies from 18 ± 7% (RCP2.6) to 36 ± 11% (RCP8.5) corresponding to 94 ± 25 and 200 ± 44 mm sea-level equivalent (SLE), respectively. Regional relative mass changes by 2100 correlate linearly with relative area changes. For RCP8.5 three models project global rates of mass loss (multi-GCM means) of >3 mm SLE per year towards the end of the century. Projections vary considerably between regions, and also among the glacier models. Global glacier mass changes per degree global air temperature rise tend to increase with more pronounced warming indicating that mass-balance sensitivities to temperature change are not constant. Differences in glacier mass projections among the models are attributed to differences in model physics, calibration and downscaling procedures, initial ice volumes and varying ensembles of forcing GCMs.

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Copyright

This is an Open Access article, distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution licence (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted re-use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

Corresponding author

Correspondence: REGINE HOCK <rehock@alaska.edu>

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Keywords

Type Description Title
UNKNOWN
Time series of annual glacier mass and area for all simulations

Hock et al. supplementary material
Hock et al. supplementary material 1

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12.0 MB
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Supplementary tables and figures

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Hock et al. supplementary material 2

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UNKNOWN
Area changes 2015-2100 (%) for all glacier models and regions

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Hock et al. supplementary material 3

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Mass changes 2015-2100 (% and mm SLE) for all glacier models and regions

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