Skip to main content
×
×
Home

Modeling the evolution of the Juneau Icefield between 1971 and 2100 using the Parallel Ice Sheet Model (PISM)

  • FLORIAN A. ZIEMEN (a1), REGINE HOCK (a1), ANDY ASCHWANDEN (a1), CONSTANTINE KHROULEV (a1), CHRISTIAN KIENHOLZ (a1), ANDREW MELKONIAN (a2) and JING ZHANG (a3)...
Abstract
ABSTRACT

We study the evolution of the Juneau Icefield, one of the largest icefields in North America (>3700 km2), using the Parallel Ice Sheet Model (PISM). We test two climate datasets: 20 km Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) output, and data from the Scenarios Network for Alaska Planning (SNAP), derived from spatial interpolation of observations. Good agreement between simulated and observed surface mass balance was achieved only after substantially adjusting WRF precipitation to account for unresolved orographic effects, while SNAP's climate pattern is incompatible with observations of surface mass balance. Using the WRF data forced with the RCP6.0 emission scenario, the model projects a decrease in ice volume by 58–68% and a 57–63% area loss by 2099 compared with 2010. If the modeled 2070–99 climate is held constant beyond 2099, the icefield is eliminated by 2200. With constant 1971–2010 climate, the icefield stabilizes at 86% of its present-day volume. Experiments started from an ice-free state indicate that steady-state volumes are largely independent of the initial ice volume when forced by identical scenarios of climate stabilization. Despite large projected volume losses, the complex high-mountain topography makes the Juneau Icefield less susceptible to climate warming than low-lying Alaskan icefields.

  • View HTML
    • Send article to Kindle

      To send this article to your Kindle, first ensure no-reply@cambridge.org is added to your Approved Personal Document E-mail List under your Personal Document Settings on the Manage Your Content and Devices page of your Amazon account. Then enter the ‘name’ part of your Kindle email address below. Find out more about sending to your Kindle. Find out more about sending to your Kindle.

      Note you can select to send to either the @free.kindle.com or @kindle.com variations. ‘@free.kindle.com’ emails are free but can only be sent to your device when it is connected to wi-fi. ‘@kindle.com’ emails can be delivered even when you are not connected to wi-fi, but note that service fees apply.

      Find out more about the Kindle Personal Document Service.

      Modeling the evolution of the Juneau Icefield between 1971 and 2100 using the Parallel Ice Sheet Model (PISM)
      Available formats
      ×
      Send article to Dropbox

      To send this article to your Dropbox account, please select one or more formats and confirm that you agree to abide by our usage policies. If this is the first time you use this feature, you will be asked to authorise Cambridge Core to connect with your Dropbox account. Find out more about sending content to Dropbox.

      Modeling the evolution of the Juneau Icefield between 1971 and 2100 using the Parallel Ice Sheet Model (PISM)
      Available formats
      ×
      Send article to Google Drive

      To send this article to your Google Drive account, please select one or more formats and confirm that you agree to abide by our usage policies. If this is the first time you use this feature, you will be asked to authorise Cambridge Core to connect with your Google Drive account. Find out more about sending content to Google Drive.

      Modeling the evolution of the Juneau Icefield between 1971 and 2100 using the Parallel Ice Sheet Model (PISM)
      Available formats
      ×
Copyright
This is an Open Access article, distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution licence (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted re-use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
Corresponding author
Correspondence: F. A. Ziemen <florian.ziemen@mpimet.mpg.de>
References
Hide All
Abe-Ouchi A, Segawa T and Saito F (2007) Climatic Conditions for modelling the Northern Hemisphere ice sheets throughout the iceage cycle. Clim. Past, 3(3), 423438 (doi: 10.5194/cp-3-423-2007)
Arendt A and 6 others (2013) Analysis of a GRACE global mascon solution for Gulf of Alaska glaciers. J. Glaciol., 59(217), 913924 (doi: 10.3189/2013JoG12J197)
Arendt AA, Echelmeyer KA, Harrison WD, Lingle CS and Valentine VB (2002) Rapid wastage of Alaska glaciers and their contribution to rising sea level. Science, 297(5580), 382386 (doi: 10.1126/science.1072497)
Aschwanden A, Bueler E, Khroulev C and Blatter H (2012) An enthalpy formulation for glaciers and ice sheets. J. Glaciol., 58(209), 441457 (doi: 10.3189/2012JoG11J088)
Aschwanden A, Aðalgeirsdóttir G and Khroulev C (2013) Hindcasting to measure ice sheet model sensitivity to initial states. Cryosphere, 7, 10831093 (doi: 10.5194/tc-7-1083-2013)
Aðalgeirsdóttir G, Gudmundsson GH and Björnsson H (2003) A regression model for the mass-balance distribution of the Vatnajökull ice cap. Iceland. Ann. Glaciol., 37(1), 189193. ISSN (doi: 10.3189/172756403781815447)
Berthier E, Schiefer E, Clarke GKC, Menounos B and Rémy F (2010) Contribution of Alaskan glaciers to sea-level rise derived from satellite imagery. Nat. Geosci., 3(2), 9295. ISSN (doi: 10.1038/ngeo737)
Bodvarsson G (1955) On the flow of ice sheets and glaciers. Jökull, 5, 18
Boyce ES, Motyka R and Truffer M (2007) Flotation and retreat of a lake-calving terminus, Mendenhall Glacier, southeast Alaska, USA. J. Glaciol., 53(181), 211224 (doi: 10.3189/172756507782202928)
Bueler E and Brown J (2009) The shallow shelf approximation as a “sliding law” in a thermomechanically coupled ice sheet model. J. Geophys. Res., 114(F3), 121 (doi: 10.1029/2008JF001179)
Calov R and Greve R (2005) A semi-analytical solution for the positive degree-day model with stochastic temperature variations. J. Glaciol., 51, 173175
Cogley J and 10 others (2011) Glossary of Glacier Mass Balance and related terms, Tech. rep., UNESCO-IHP, Paris, IHP-VII technical documents in Hydrology No. 86, IACS Contribution No. 2
Daly C, Gibson WP, Taylor GH, Johnson GL and Pasteris P (2002) A knowledge-based approach to the statistical mapping of climate. Clim. res., 22(2), 99113 ISSN
Gardner AS and 13 others (2013) A reconciled estimate of glacier 2003 to 2009. Science, 11 (May), 852857 (doi: 10.1126/science.1234532)
Gent PR and 9 others (2011) The community climate system model version 4. J. Clim., 24(19), 49734991. ISSN (doi: 10.1175/2011JCLI4083.1)
Golledge NR and 9 others (2012) Last glacial maximum climate in New Zealand inferred from a modelled Southern Alps icefield. Quat. Sci. Rev., 46, 3045 (doi: 10.1016/j.quascirev.2012.05.004)
Greve R and Blatter H (2009) Dynamics of Ice Sheets and Glaciers. Dordrecht [u.a.]: Springer, 287.
Habermann M, Truffer M and Maxwell D (2013) Changing basal conditions during the speed-up of Jakobshavn Isbræ, Greenland. Cryosphere, 7(6), 16791692 (doi: 10.5194/tc-7-1679-2013)
Harris I, Jones PD, Osborn TJ and Lister DH (2014) Updated high-resolution grids of monthly climatic observations – the CRU TS3.10 Dataset. Int. J. Clim., 34(3), 623642. ISSN (doi: 10.1002/joc.3711)
Harrison W, Elsberg DH, Echelmeyer KA and Krimmel RM (2001) On the characterization of glacier response by a single time-scale. J. Glaciol., 47(159), 659664 (doi: 10.3189/172756501781831837)
Heusser CJ and Marcus MG (1964) Historical variations of Lemon Creek Glacier, Alaska, and their relationship to the climatic record. J. Glaciol., 5(37), 7786
Hock R (2003) Temperature index melt modelling in mountain areas. J. Hydrol., 282(1–4), 104115. ISSN (doi: DOI: 10.1016/S0022-1694(03)00257-9)
Huss M and Farinotti D (2012) Distributed ice thickness and volume of all glaciers around the globe. J. Geophys. Res., 117(F4), F04010 (doi: 10.1029/2012JF002523)
Hutter K (1983) Theoretical Glaciology. D. Reidel Publishing Company, Dordrecht/Boston/Lancester, 510
Jeuken ABM, Siegmund PC, Heijboer LC, Feichter J and Bengtsson L (1996) On the potential of assimilating meteorological analyses in a global climate model for the purpose of model validation. J. Geophys. Res., 101(D12), 16939. ISSN (doi: 10.1029/96JD01218)
Khroulev C and the PISM Authors (2014) PISM, a Parallel Ice Sheet Model. Retrieved from http://www.pism-docs.org (this is a user manual / technical report)
Kienholz C and 5 others (2015) Derivation and analysis of a complete modern-date glacier inventory for Alaska and northwest Canada. J. Glaciol., 61(227), 403420. ISSN (doi: 10.3189/2015JoG14J230)
Kuriger EM, Truffer M, Motyka RJ and Bucki AK (2006) Episodic reactivation of large-scale push moraines in front of the advancing Taku Glacier. Alaska, J. Geophys. Res., 111(F1), F01009. ISSN (doi: 10.1029/2005JF000385)
Larsen CF, Motyka RJ, Arendt AA, Echelmeyer KA and Geissler PE (2007) Glacier changes in southeast Alaska and northwest British Columbia and contribution to sea level rise. J. Geophys. Res., 112(F1), F01007. ISSN (doi: 10.1029/2006JF000586)
Lawrence DB (1950) Glacier fluctuation for six centuries in southeastern Alaska and its relation to solar activity. Geogr. Rev., 191223. ISSN
Leysinger Vieli GJ-MC and Gudmundsson GH (2004) On estimating length fluctuations of glaciers caused by changes in climatic forcing. J. Geophys. Res., 109(F1), 114 (doi: 10.1029/2003JF000027)
Liu F, Krieger JR and Zhang J (2013) Toward producing the chukchi – beaufort high-resolution atmospheric reanalysis (CBHAR) via the WRFDA data assimilation system. Mon. Weather Rev., 142(2), 788805. ISSN (doi: 10.1175/MWR-D-13-00063.1)
Marsiat I (1994) Simulation of the northern hemisphere continental ice sheets over the last glacial-interglacial cycle: experiments with a latitude-longitude vertically integrated ice sheet model coupled to a zonally averaged climate model. Paleoclim. Data Modell., 1(1), 5998. ISSN
Martin MA and 5 others (2011) The potsdam parallel ice sheet model (PISM-PIK) — Part 2: dynamic equilibrium simulation of the Antarctic ice sheet. Cryosphere, 5(3), 727740 (doi: 10.5194/tc-5-727-2011)
Marzeion B, Jarosch AH and Hofer M (2012) Past and future sea-level change from the surface mass balance of glaciers. Cryosphere, 6(6), 12951322 (doi: 10.5194/tc-6-1295-2012)
McGee S and 7 others (2007) Surface velocity changes on the Taku Glacier System – 1993 to 2007, Tech. rep., Juneau Icefield Research Program, Seattle, Washington.
Meier MF and Post A (1987) Fast tidewater glaciers. J. Geophys. Res., 92(B9), 90519058. ISSN (doi: 10.1029/JB092iB09p09051)
Melkonian AK, Willis MJ and Pritchard ME (2014) Satellite-derived volume loss rates and glacier speeds for the Juneau Icefield, Alaska. J. Glaciol., 60(222), 743760 (doi: 10.3189/2014JoG13J181)
Molnia BF (2007) Late nineteenth to early twenty-first century behavior of Alaskan glaciers as indicators of changing regional climate. Glob. Planet. Change, 56(1), 2356. ISSN
Morland LW (1987) Unconfined ice-shelf flow. In van der Veen CJ and Oerlemans J eds. Dynamics of the West Antarctic ice sheet. D. Reidel Publishing Company, Dordrecht, 99116
Motyka RJ and Begét JE (1996) Taku Glacier, southeast Alaska, USA: Late Holocene history of a tidewater glacier. Arctic Alpine Res., 28(1), 4251
Motyka RJ and Echelmeyer KA (2003) Taku Glacier (Alaska, USA) on the move again: active deformation of proglacial sediments. J. Glaciol., 49(164), 5058
Nolan M, Echelmeyer KA, Motyka R and Trabant DC (1995) Ice-thickness measurements of Taku Glacier, Alaska, U.S.A., and their relevance to its recent behavior. J. Glaciol., 41(139), 541553
Paterson W and Budd W (1982) Flow parameters for ice sheet modeling. Cold Reg. Sci. Technol., 6(2), 175177. ISSN (doi: 10.1016/0165-232X(82)90010-6)
Pelto MS and Miller MM (1990) Mass balance of the Taku Glacier, Alaska from 1946 to 1986. Northwest Sci., 64(3), 121130
Pelto M, Kavanaugh J and McNeil C (2013) Juneau Icefield mass balance program 1946–2011. Earth. Syst. Sci. Data, 5(2), 319330 (doi: 10.5194/essd-5-319-2013)
Radić V and 5 others (2013) Regional and global projections of twenty-first century glacier mass changes in response to climate scenarios from global climate models. Clim. Dyn., 42(2011), 3758 (doi: 10.1007/s00382-013-1719-7)
Ramage JM, Isacks BL and Miller MM (2000) Radar glacier zones in southeast Alaska, U.S.A.: field and satellite observations.
Roe GH (2003) Orographic precipitation and the relief of mountain ranges. J. Geophys. Res., 108(B6), 2315. ISSN (doi: 10.1029/2001JB001521)
Seguinot J, Khroulev C, Rogozhina I, Stroeven AP and Zhang Q (2014) The effect of climate forcing on numerical simulations of the Cordilleran ice sheet at the Last Glacial Maximum. Cryosphere, 8(3), 10871103. ISSN (doi: 10.5194/tc-8-1087-2014)
Skamarock WC and 8 others (2008) A Description of the advanced research WRF Version 3, Tech. rep., NCAR Technical Notes, Boulder, Colorado, USA
Smith RB, Barstad I (2004) A linear theory of orographic precipitation. J. Atmos. Sci., 61(12), 13771391. ISSN (doi: 10.1175/1520-0469(2004)061<1377:ALTOOP>2.0.CO;2)
Truessel B and 5 others (2015) Run-away thinning of the low elevation Yakutat Glacier and its sensitivity to climate change. J. Glaciol., 61, 6575 (doi: 10.3189/2015JoG14J125)
Truffer M, Motyka RJ, Hekkers M, Howat IM and King MA (2009) Terminus dynamics at an advancing glacier: Taku Glacier, Alaska. J. Glaciol., 55, 10521060 (doi: 10.3189/002214309790794887)
van Pelt WJJ and 6 others (2013) An iterative inverse method to estimate basal topography and initialize ice flow models. Cryosphere, 7(3), 9871006 (doi: 10.5194/tc-7-987-2013)
Zhang J, Bhatt US, Tangborn WV and Lingle CS (2007) Response of glaciers in northwestern North America to future climate change: an atmosphere/glacier hierarchical modeling approach. Ann. Glaciol., 46(1), 283290. ISSN
Zhang X and 9 others (2013) Beaufort and Chukchi Seas Mesoscale Meteorology Modeling Study, Final Report, Tech. rep., U.S. Dept. of the Interior, Bureau of Ocean Energy Management. URL http://www.data.boem.gov/PI/PDFImages/ESPIS/5/5301.pdf
Ziemen FA, Rodehacke CB and Mikolajewicz U (2014) Coupled ice sheet–climate modeling under glacial and pre-industrial boundary conditions. Clim. Past, 10(5), 18171836. ISSN (doi: 10.5194/cp-10-1817-2014)
Recommend this journal

Email your librarian or administrator to recommend adding this journal to your organisation's collection.

Journal of Glaciology
  • ISSN: 0022-1430
  • EISSN: 1727-5652
  • URL: /core/journals/journal-of-glaciology
Please enter your name
Please enter a valid email address
Who would you like to send this to? *
×

Keywords:

Type Description Title
PDF
Supplementary materials

Ziemen Supplementary Material
Figures

 PDF (7.9 MB)
7.9 MB

Metrics

Full text views

Total number of HTML views: 36
Total number of PDF views: 426 *
Loading metrics...

Abstract views

Total abstract views: 671 *
Loading metrics...

* Views captured on Cambridge Core between September 2016 - 16th January 2018. This data will be updated every 24 hours.