Rock glaciers support alpine biodiversity and may respond more slowly to warming than snow or glaciers. While responses of snow and glaciers to climate change are relatively well understood, a robust assessment of rock glacier environmental niche, future distributions of rock glaciers and potential for development of rock glaciers from current glaciers is lacking. Using process-relevant, high-resolution environmental descriptors, we develop a species distribution model of the topographic, geologic and hydroclimatic niche of rock glaciers that provides novel estimates of potential rock glacier distributions for different climates. We identify mean annual air temperature and headwall area as the dominant controls on rock glacier spatial distributions, with rock glaciers more likely to be found in areas with mean annual temperatures close to −5°C, little rain, northern aspects and broad headwalls. While rock glacier climate equilibration may take hundreds of years, we find that equilibration to present climate will result in a 50% reduction in rock glacier habitat and equilibration to late 21st-century climate under a high-end warming scenario will result in a 99% reduction in rock glacier habitat across the western USA. Under future conditions, we find limited potential for glacier to rock glacier transformation (3% of glacierized area), concentrated in cold, high elevation, moderate precipitation areas.

The time-evolution of glacier basal motion remains poorly constrained, despite its importance in understanding the response of glaciers to climate warming. Athabasca Glacier provides an ideal site for observing changes in basal motion over long timescales. Studies from the 1960s provide an in situ baseline dataset constraining ice deformation and basal motion. We use two complementary numerical flow models to investigate changes along a well-studied transverse profile and throughout a larger study area. A cross-sectional flow model allows us to calculate transverse englacial velocity fields to simulate modern and historical conditions. We subsequently use a 3-D numerical ice flow model, Icepack, to estimate changes in basal friction by inverting known surface velocities. Our results reproduce observed velocities well using standard values for flow parameters. They show that basal motion declined significantly (30–40%) and this constitutes the majority (50–80%) of the observed decrease in surface velocities. At the same time, basal resistive stress has remained nearly constant and now balances a much larger fraction of the driving stress. The decline in basal motion over multiple decades of climate warming could serve as a stabilizing feedback mechanism, slowing ice transport to lower elevations, and therefore moderating future mass loss rates.

Supraglacial lakes on Antarctic ice shelves can have far-reaching implications for ice-sheet stability, highlighting the need to understand their dynamics, controls and role in the ice-sheet mass budget. We combine a detailed satellite-based record of seasonal lake evolution in Dronning Maud Land with a high-resolution simulation from the regional climate model Modèle Atmosphérique Régional to identify drivers of lake variability between 2014 and 2021. Correlations between summer lake extents and climate parameters reveal complex relationships that vary both in space and time. Shortwave radiation contributes positively to the energy budget during summer melt seasons, but summers with enhanced longwave radiation are more prone to surface melting and ponding, which is further enhanced by advected heat from summer precipitation. In contrast, previous winter precipitation has a negative effect on summer lake extents, presumably by increasing albedo and pore space, delaying the accumulation of meltwater. Downslope katabatic or föhn winds promote ponding around the grounding zones of some ice shelves. At a larger scale, we find that summers during periods of negative southern annular mode are associated with increased ponding in Dronning Maud Land. The high variability in seasonal lake extents indicates that these ice shelves are highly sensitive to future warming or intensified extreme events.

Glaciers in High-Mountain Asia are experiencing varying rates and patterns of mass loss due to a complex interplay between glacier surface processes, local conditions and climate forcing. Spatially distributed surface mass balance (SMB) estimates can provide valuable insight into these drivers, but observations are currently limited in both space and time. We used very-high-resolution optical stereo images acquired by commercial satellites to prepare time series of digital elevation models (DEMs), and derived contemporaneous surface velocity and elevation change products for six debris-covered glaciers in Nepal. We developed new methods to produce flow-corrected Lagrangian SMB maps to isolate local surface ablation signals with enough detail to study individual ice cliffs. Our results show reduced ablation under thick debris cover and enhanced ablation over ice cliffs. Ablating ice cliffs were responsible for $10\!-\!38\%$ of the total ablation over debris-covered areas, even though they covered $\leq \!11\%$ of the total area. Seasonal SMB products reveal the timing and patterns of summer accumulation and ablation, underscoring the importance of snow avalanches for low-elevation debris-covered glaciers in the region. Our approach can be applied to other glaciers with repeat high-resolution DEM coverage and extended for regional analyses of SMB on seasonal to interannual timescales.

Runoff from heavily glacierised catchments, its seasonality and the contribution from different storage units are highly relevant for assessing the seasonal and long-term water supply and flood prediction. Modelling studies on runoff from such basins often use simulated meteorological input (e.g. downscaling products) based on remote observations. We investigate the contribution of snow, firn and ice to runoff in the Vernagtferner basin (Ötztal Alps) from 2020 to 2022, using a physical modelling chain driven by a local observation network. We use the SNOWPACK model to simulate snow/ice development at observation sites and the Alpine3D model to calculate accumulation and melt at the catchment scale. Basin discharge is estimated using a gridded version of the HBV-ETH model. This approach largely reproduces observed glacier mass balances, while modelled and measured basin discharge are in good agreement. Snowmelt dominates discharge in the early melt season, while ice melt becomes increasingly important during summer. This is in strong contrast to the near-equilibrium mass balances in the 1980s, when ice melt played a minor role for annual discharge. The strong reduction of the accumulation area leads to a fundamental change from a snowmelt regime to an ice melt regime, which is especially pronounced in 2022.

Accurately quantifying all the components of the surface energy balance (SEB) is a prerequisite for the reliable estimation of surface melt and the surface mass balance over ice and snow. This study quantifies the SEB closure by comparing the energy available for surface melt, determined from continuous measurements of radiative fluxes and turbulent heat fluxes, to the surface ablation measured on the Greenland ice sheet between 2003 and 2023. We find that the measured daily energy available for surface melt exceeds the observed surface melt by on average 18 ± 30 W m−2 for snow and 12 ± 54 W m−2 for ice conditions (mean ± SD), which corresponds to 46 and 10% of the average energy available for surface melt, respectively. When the surface is not melting, the daily SEB is on average closed within 5 W m−2. Based on the inter-comparison of different ablation sensors and radiometers installed on different stations, and on the evaluation of modelled turbulent heat fluxes, we conclude that measurement uncertainties prevent a better daily to sub-daily SEB closure. These results highlight the need and challenges in obtaining accurate long-term in situ SEB observations for the proper evaluation of climate models and for the validation of remote sensing products.

Rift propagation, rather than basal melt, drives the destabilization and disintegration of the Thwaites Eastern Ice Shelf. Since 2016, rifts have episodically advanced throughout the central ice-shelf area, with rapid propagation events occurring during austral spring. The ice shelf's speed has increased by ~70% during this period, transitioning from a rate of 1.65 m d−1 in 2019 to 2.85 m d−1 by early 2023 in the central area. The increase in longitudinal strain rates near the grounding zone has led to full-thickness rifts and melange-filled gaps since 2020. A recent sea-ice break out has accelerated retreat at the western calving front, effectively separating the ice shelf from what remained of its northwestern pinning point. Meanwhile, a distributed set of phase-sensitive radar measurements indicates that the basal melting rate is generally small, likely due to a widespread robust ocean stratification beneath the ice–ocean interface that suppresses basal melt despite the presence of substantial oceanic heat at depth. These observations in combination with damage modeling show that, while ocean forcing is responsible for triggering the current West Antarctic ice retreat, the Thwaites Eastern Ice Shelf is experiencing dynamic feedbacks over decadal timescales that are driving ice-shelf disintegration, now independent of basal melt.

Sub-glacial canyon features up to 580 m deep between flat terraces were identified beneath Devon Ice Cap during a 2023 radar echo sounding (RES) survey. The largest canyon connects a hypothesized brine network near the Devon Ice Cap summit with the marine-terminating Sverdrup outlet glacier. This canyon represents a probable drainage route for the hypothesized water system. Radar bed reflectivity is consistently 30 dB lower along the canyon floor than on the terraces, contradicting the signature expected for sub-glacial water. We compare these data with backscattering simulations to demonstrate that the reflectivity pattern may be topographically induced. Our simulated results indicated a 10 m wide canal-like water feature is unlikely along the canyon floor, but smaller features may be difficult to detect via RES. We calculated basal temperature profiles using a 2D finite difference method and found the floor may be up to 18°C warmer than the terraces. However, temperatures remain below the pressure melting point, and there is limited evidence that the canyon floor supports a connected drainage system between the DIC summit and Sverdrup Glacier. The terrain beneath Devon Ice Cap demonstrates limitations for RES. Future studies should evaluate additional correction methods near complex terrain, such as RES simulation as we demonstrate here.

Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) has been used extensively to determine the surface ice flow velocity of tidewater glaciers and investigate changes in seasonal or annual ice dynamics at medium spatial resolution (⩾100 m). However, assessing tidewater glacier behaviour at these resolutions risks missing key details of glacier dynamics, which is particularly important for determination of strain rates that relate to crevasse formation, depth, and ice damage. Here we present surface ice velocity and strain maps with a 16 m posting derived from high-resolution (1 m) PAZ Ciencia spotlight mode SAR imagery for Narsap Sermia, SW Greenland, for October 2019 to February 2021. Results reveal fine details in strain rate, including an area of compression proximal to the terminus, with an upstream shift of strains through time. The velocity evolution of Narsap Sermia shows distinct seasonal changes starting in summer 2020, which are largely modulated by the subglacial drainage system. Comparison of our results with medium-resolution velocity products shows that while these can capture general strain and velocity patterns, our high-resolution data reveals considerably larger ranges of strain values. This is likely to have implications for tuning strain rate dependent calving and ice damage parameterisations within numerical models.

Artificial ground freezing is an effective method for underground constructions in deep alluvium. To study the compressive strength of frozen soil under high ground pressure and high hydraulic pressure, it is necessary to understand the mechanical behaviour of ice that is formed under triaxial compressive stress. A low-temperature triaxial test system was developed and used to study both formation and deformation of columnar ice under hydrostatic pressure. Cylindrical ice specimens 125 mm in height and 61.8 mm in diameter were prepared and tested under constant strain rates. At a strain rate of 5 × 10−5 s−1, the peak axial stress showed a linear increase as the confining pressure increased from 2 to 30 MPa, while the peak deviatoric stress exhibited a slight decrease. At a confining pressure of 30 MPa, the peak deviatoric stress showed a logarithmic increase with the strain rate increasing from 5 × 10−6 to 5 × 10−4 s−1, and the failure strain nearly doubled. A power law relationship between the time to failure and the strain rate was also observed. In this study, each test consistently demonstrated a ductile failure mode, with a noticeable reduction in cracking as the confining pressure increased. Due to the effect of the high confining pressure, crack propagation was suppressed, and an apparent recrystallization after peak stress was observed.

Greenland's marine- and land-terminating glaciers are retreating inland due to climate warming, reconfiguring the way the ice sheet interacts with its proglacial environment. Here we use three decades of satellite imagery to determine whether the ice-sheet margin is becoming more or less exposed to marine and lacustrine processes. During our 1990–2019 study period, we find that the length of ice-sheet perimeter in contact with the ocean shrank by 12.3 ± 3.8% (196.2 ± 10.4 km), due to the retreat of marine-terminating glaciers into narrower fjords. On the other hand, we find that the length of the ice-sheet perimeter in contact with freshwater lakes exhibited more divergent trends that is better explored at regional scales. The length of ice–lake boundaries increased in southwest, north and northwest Greenland but declined in southeast and central east Greenland. The magnitude of change we document during our study period leads us to conclude that the ice sheet is poised for further, substantial reconfiguration in the coming decades with consequences for the flux of fresh water, nutrients and primary productivity in Greenland's terrestrial and oceanic environment.

Observations of glacier melt and runoff are of fundamental interest in the study of glaciers and their interactions with their environment. Considerable recent interest has developed around distributed acoustic sensing (DAS), a sensing technique which utilizes Rayleigh backscatter in fiber optic cables to measure the seismo-acoustic wavefield in high spatial and temporal resolution. Here, we present data from a month-long, 9 km DAS deployment extending through the ablation and accumulation zones on Rhonegletscher, Switzerland, during the 2020 melt season. While testing several types of machine learning (ML) models, we establish a regression problem, using the DAS data as the dependent variable, to infer the glacier discharge observed at a proglacial stream gauge. We also compare two predictive models that only depend on meteorological station data. We find that the seismo-acoustic wavefield recorded by DAS can be utilized to infer proglacial discharge. Models using DAS data outperform the two models trained on meteorological data with mean absolute errors of 0.64, 2.25 and 2.72 m3 s−1, respectively. This study demonstrates the ability of in situ glacier DAS to be used for quantifying proglacial discharge and points the way to a new approach to measuring glacier runoff.

On the Greenland Ice Sheet, hydrofracture connects the supraglacial and subglacial hydrologic systems, coupling surface runoff dynamics and ice velocity. In recent decades, the growth of low-permeability ice slabs in the wet snow zone has expanded Greenland's runoff zone, but observations suggest that surface-to-bed connections are rare, because meltwater drains through crevasses into the porous firn beneath ice slabs. However, there is little quantitative evidence confirming the absence of surface-to-bed fracture propagation. Here, we use poromechanics to investigate whether water-filled crevasses in ice slabs can propagate vertically through an underlying porous firn layer. Based on numerical simulations, we develop an analytical estimate of the water injection-induced effective stress in the firn given the water level in the crevasse, ice slab thickness, and firn properties. We find that the firn layer substantially reduces the system's vulnerability to hydrofracture because much of the hydrostatic stress is accommodated by a change in pore pressure, rather than being transmitted to the solid skeleton. This result suggests that surface-to-bed hydrofracture will not occur in ice slab regions until all pore space proximal to the initial flaw has been filled with solid ice.

The flow of glacial ice is typically approximated as a nonNewtonian viscous fluid, with the momentum balance described by (an approximation to) the Stokes equations, and the nonlinear rheology described by a flow law. The most commonly used rheological law for glacial ice, Glen's flow law, yields infinite viscosity in the case of zero deformation, which can be the case at the ice surface. This poses a problem when solving the momentum balance numerically. We show that two commonly-used discretisation schemes for the boundary conditions at the ice surface and base, which yield proper numerical convergence when applied to simpler problems, produce poor numerical convergence and large errors, when used to solve the momentum balance with Glen's flow law. We show that a discretisation scheme based on the concept of ghost nodes, which substitutes the boundary conditions directly into the momentum balance equations, yields second-order numerical convergence and errors that can be up to four orders of magnitude smaller. These results are robust across different momentum balance approximations. We show that the improved boundary conditions are particularly useful for solving the 3-D higher-order Blatter-Pattyn Approximation (BPA). In general, this work underlines the importance of thoroughly verifying the numerical solvers used in ice-sheet models, before applying them to future projections of ice-sheet mass loss.

The observed retreat of the grounding line of the present-day ice sheets and the simulated grounding-line retreat of ice sheets under changing climate conditions are often interpreted as indications of marine ice-sheet instability (MISI), driven by a positive feedback between the ice discharge and conditions at the grounding line. However, the arguments that support this feedback are valid only for steady-state conditions. Here, we assess how unconfined marine ice sheets may behave if atmospheric conditions and basal conditions evolve with time. We find that the behavior of grounding lines can exhibit a range from unstoppable advance and retreat to irregular oscillation irrespective of the stability of the corresponding steady-state configurations obtained with time-invariant conditions. Our results show that numerical simulations with a parameterization of the ice flux through the grounding line used in large-scale ice-sheet models produce markedly different results from simulations without the parameterization. Our analysis demonstrates that the grounding-line migration can be driven by the temporal variability in the atmospheric and basal conditions and not by MISI, which assumes unchanging conditions. Instead, the grounding-line advance or retreat is determined by interactions between ice flow, basal processes and environmental conditions throughout the length of a marine ice sheet in addition to the circumstances at its grounding line.

Seismic imaging in 3-D holds great potential for improving our understanding of ice sheet structure and dynamics. Conducting 3-D imaging in remote areas is simplified by using lightweight and logistically straightforward sources. We report results from controlled seismic source tests carried out near the West Antarctic Ice Sheet Divide investigating the characteristics of two types of surface seismic sources, Poulter shots and detonating cord, for use in both 2-D and 3-D seismic surveys on glaciers. Both source types produced strong basal P-wave and S-wave reflections and multiples recorded in three components. The Poulter shots had a higher amplitude for low frequencies (<10 Hz) and comparable amplitude at high frequencies (>50 Hz) relative to the detonating cord. Amplitudes, frequencies, speed of source set-up, and cost all suggested Poulter shots to be the preferred surface source compared to detonating cord for future 2-D and 3-D seismic surveys on glaciers.

Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) observations and ground-based timelapse photography obtained over the record-high 2019/2020 melt season are combined to characterise the flexure and fracture behaviour of a previously formed doline on George VI Ice Shelf, Antarctica. The GNSS timeseries shows a downward vertical displacement of the doline centre with respect to the doline rim of ~60 cm in response to loading from a central meltwater lake. The GNSS data also show a tens-of-days episode of rapid-onset, exponentially decaying horizontal displacement, where the horizontal distance between the doline rim and its centre increases by ~70 cm. We interpret this event as the initiation and/or widening of a fracture, aided by stress perturbations associated with meltwater loading in the doline basin. Viscous flexure modelling indicates that the meltwater loading generates tensile surface stresses exceeding 75 kPa. This, together with our timelapse photos of circular fractures around the doline, suggests the first such documentation of meltwater-loading-induced ‘ring fracture’ formation on an ice shelf, equivalent to the fracture type proposed as part of the chain-reaction lake drainage process involved in the 2002 breakup of the Larsen B Ice Shelf.

Digital elevation models (DEMs) from the spaceborne interferometric radar mission TanDEM-X hold a large potential for glacier change assessments. However, a bias is potentially introduced through the penetration of the X-band signal into snow and firn. To improve our understanding of radar penetration on glaciers, we compare DEMs derived from the almost synchronous acquisition of TanDEM-X and Pléiades optical stereo-images of Grosser Aletschgletscher in March 2021. We found that the elevation bias – averaged per elevation bin – can reach up to 4–8 m in the accumulation area, depending on post co-registration corrections. Concurrent in situ measurements (ground-penetrating radar, snow cores, snow pits) reveal that the signal is not obstructed by the last summer horizon but reaches into perennial firn. Because of volume scattering, the TanDEM-X surface is determined by the scattering phase centre and does not coincide with a specific firn layer. We show that the bias corresponds to more than half of the decadal ice loss rate. To minimize the radar penetration bias, we recommend to select DEMs from the same time of the year and over long observation periods. A correction of the radar penetration bias is recommended, especially when combining optical and TanDEM-X DEMs.

Bulk aerodynamic methods have been shown to perform poorly in computing turbulent heat fluxes at glacier surfaces during shallow katabatic winds. Katabatic surface layers have different wind shear and flux profiles to the surface layers for which the bulk methods were developed, potentially invalidating their use in these conditions. In addition, eddy covariance-derived turbulent heat fluxes are unlikely to be representative of surface conditions when eddy covariance data are collected close to the wind speed maximum (WSM). Here we utilize two months of eddy covariance and meteorological data measured at three different heights (1 m, 2 m, and 3 m) at Kaskawulsh Glacier in the Yukon, Canada, to re-examine the performance of bulk methods relative to eddy covariance-derived fluxes under different near-surface flow regimes. We propose a new set of processing methods for one-level eddy covariance data to ensure the validity of calculated fluxes during highly variable flows and low-level wind speed maxima, which leads to improved agreement between eddy covariance-derived and modelled fluxes across all flow regimes, with the best agreement (correlation >0.9) 1 m above the surface. Contrary to previous studies, these results show that adequately processed eddy covariance data collected at or above the WSM can provide valid estimates of surface heat fluxes.

Uncrewed aerial vehicles (UAVs) are frequently used in glaciological applications, among other things, for photogrammetric assessments of calving dynamics at glacier termini. However, UAVs are often limited by battery endurance and weight constraints on the scientific payload that can be added. At Sálajiegna, the largest freshwater calving glacier in Sweden, we explored the combined use of a versatile maritime robot (uncrewed surface vehicle, USV) and a UAV to characterise Sálajiegna's short-term and seasonal calving front dynamics and mass loss. For this, a photogrammetric payload suite was integrated into the USV. Consecutive USV surveys of Sálajiegna's front, followed by point cloud based calving detection and surface-reconstruction based volume quantification, allowed for a detailed description of calving-induced terminus changes and is hence suggested as a viable alternative to the differencing of digital elevation models. By combining USV and UAV measurements, we identify sectors of high and low calving activity, a calving front retreat of up to 56 m and a thinning rate in the terminus region of 5.4 cm d−1 during the summer of 2022.