Skip to main content
×
Home
    • Aa
    • Aa

The President's ‘New’ Constituency: Lula and the Pragmatic Vote in Brazil's 2006 Presidential Elections*

  • CESAR ZUCCO (a1)
Abstract
Abstract

The 2006 presidential elections in Brazil witnessed a dramatic shift of Lula's voting base away from the more developed regions of the country and towards the poorest areas. This paper uses municipal-level data to argue that while this shift represents an important change for the support base of Lula himself, it can mostly be explained by the government's massive cash transfer programme, the Bolsa Familia, and by the empirical regularity with which presidential candidates from the incumbent party in Brazil always perform better in the less developed regions of the country.

<span class='italic'>Resumen:</span>

Las elecciones presidenciales en Brasil vieron un cambio dramático en la base electoral de Lula que se movió de las regiones más desarrolladas del país hacia las más pobres. Este artículo utiliza datos a nivel municipal para indicar que mientras que este movimiento representa un cambio importante en la base de apoyo del mismo Lula, el fenómeno se puede explicar mejor debido al programa gubernamental de transferencia de recursos, la Bolsa de Familia, y por la regularidad en la que los candidatos presidenciales del partido en el poder en Brasil siempre se desempeñan mejor en las regiones menos desarrolladas del país.

Palabras clave: Brasil, Lula, elecciones, Bolsa de Familia

<span class='italic'>Resumo:</span>

A eleição presidencial brasileira de 2006 testemunhou uma mudança dramática no eleitorado de Lula, deixando as regiões mais desenvolvidas do país para seguir em direção às áreas mais pobres. Este artigo usa dados de nível municipal para argumentar que enquanto essa mudança representa uma alteração importante para a base eleitoral do próprio Lula, ela pode ser principalmente explicada pelo programa maciço de transferência de dinheiro, o Bolsa Família. Também é explicada pela regularidade empírica com que presidenciáveis do partido que está no poder sempre obtêm melhor desempenho nas regiões menos desenvolvidas do país.

Palavras-chave: Brasil, Lula, eleições, Bolsa Família

Copyright
Linked references
Hide All

This list contains references from the content that can be linked to their source. For a full set of references and notes please see the PDF or HTML where available.

Wendy Hunter and Timothy Power , ‘Rewarding Lula: Executive Power, Social Policy and the Brazilian Elections of 2006’, Latin American Politics and Society, vol. 49, no. 1 (2007) pp. 130

David Samuels , ‘Sources of Mass Partisanship in Brazil’, Latin American Politics and Society vol. 48, no. 2 (2006), pp. 127

Anthony Hall , ‘From Fome Zero to Bolsa Familia: Social Policies and Poverty Alleviation under Lula’, Journal of Latin American Studies vol. 38, no. 4 (2006), pp. 689709

Silvia Ferrari & Francisco Cribari-Neto , ‘Beta regression for modeling rates and proportions’, Journal of Applied Statistics, vol. 31, no. 7 (2004), pp. 799815

David Samuels , ‘From Socialism to Social Democracy: Party Organization and the Transformation of the Workers'Party in Brazil’, Comparative Political Studies vol. 37, no. 9 (2004), pp. 9991024

Norbert R. Schady , ‘The Political Economy of Expenditures by the Peruvian Social Fund (FONCODES), 1991–1995’, American Political Science Review vol. 94, no. 2, (2000), pp. 289304

Ernesto Calvo and Maria Victoria Murillo , ‘Who Delivers? Partisan Clients in the Argentine Electoral Market’, American Journal of Political Science vol. 48, no. 4 (2004), p. 742–57

Raymond M. Duch & Randy Stevenson , ‘Assessing the Magnitude of the Economic Vote over Time and Across Nations’, Electoral Studies vol. 25, no. 3 (2006), pp. 528–47

Recommend this journal

Email your librarian or administrator to recommend adding this journal to your organisation's collection.

Journal of Latin American Studies
  • ISSN: 0022-216X
  • EISSN: 1469-767X
  • URL: /core/journals/journal-of-latin-american-studies
Please enter your name
Please enter a valid email address
Who would you like to send this to? *
×

Keywords:

Metrics

Altmetric attention score

Full text views

Total number of HTML views: 6
Total number of PDF views: 19 *
Loading metrics...

Abstract views

Total abstract views: 134 *
Loading metrics...

* Views captured on Cambridge Core between September 2016 - 26th July 2017. This data will be updated every 24 hours.