Hostname: page-component-8448b6f56d-wq2xx Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-04-18T21:27:32.040Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false

Swimming with wealthy sharks: longevity, volatility and the value of risk pooling

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  15 March 2019

Moshe A. Milevsky*
Affiliation:
York University, Schulich School of Business, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
*
*Corresponding author. Email: milevsky@yorku.ca

Abstract

Who values life annuities more? Is it the healthy retiree who expects to live long and might become a centenarian, or is the unhealthy retiree with a short life expectancy more likely to appreciate the pooling of longevity risk? What if the unhealthy retiree is pooled with someone who is much healthier and forced to pay an implicit loading? To answer these and related questions this paper examines the empirical conditions under which retirees benefit (or may not) from longevity risk pooling by linking the economics of annuity equivalent wealth to actuarially models of aging. I focus attention on the Compensation Law of Mortality which implies that individuals with higher relative mortality (e.g., lower income) age more slowly and experience greater longevity uncertainty. Ergo, they place higher utility value on the annuity. The impetus for this research today is the increasing evidence on the growing disparity in longevity expectations between rich and poor.

Type
Article
Copyright
Copyright © Cambridge University Press 2019

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

Andersen, S, Harrison, GW, Lau, MI and Rutstrom, EE (2008) Eliciting risk and time preferences. Econometrica 76, 583618.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Andersson, E, Lundborg, P and Viksrom, J (2015) Income receipt and mortality: evidence from Swedish public sector employees. Journal of Public Economics 131, 2132.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Barseghyan, L, Molinari, F and O'Donoghue, T (2018) Estimating risk preferences in the field. Journal of Economic Literature 56(2), 501564.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bodie, Z (1990) Pensions as retirement income insurance. Journal of Economic Literature 28, 2849.Google Scholar
Bommier, A (2006) Uncertain lifetime and inter-temporal choice: risk aversion as a rationale for time discounting. International Economic Review 47, 12231246.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Brown, JR (2001) Private pensions, mortality risk and the decision to annuitize. Journal of Public Economics 82, 2962.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Brown, JR (2003) Redistribution and insurance: mandatory annuitization with mortality heterogeneity. Journal of Risk and Insurance 70(1), 1741.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Brown, JR, Mitchell, OS, Poterba, JM and Warshawsky, MJ (2001) The Role of Annuity Markets in Financing Retirement. Cambridge: MIT Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Brown, JR, Kling, JR, Mullainathan, S and Wrobel, MV (2008) Why don't people insure late-life consumption? A framing explanation of the under-annuitization puzzle. American Economic Review 98(2), 304309.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bütler, M, Staubli, S and Zito, MG (2013) How much does annuity demand react to a large price change? Scandinavian Journal of Economics 115(3), 808824.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Cannon, E and Tonks, I (2008) Annuity Markets. New York: Oxford University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Chetty, R, Stepner, M, Abraham, S, Lin, S, Scuderi, B, Turner, N, Bergeron, A and Cutler, D (2016) The association between income and life expectancy in the United States, 2001–2014. Journal of the American Medical Association 315(16), 17501766.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Cohen, A and Einav, L (2007) Estimating risk preferences from deductible choice. American Economic Review 97(3), 745788.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Davidoff, T, Brown, JR and Diamond, PA (2005) Annuities and individual welfare. American Economic Review 95(5), 15731590.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Davies, JB (1981) Uncertain lifetime, consumption and dissaving in retirement. Journal of Political Economy 89, 561577.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Deaton, A (2016) On death and money: history, facts and explanations. Journal of the American Medical Association 315(16), 17031705.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
De Nardi, M, French, E and Jones, JB (2009) Life expectancy and old age savings. American Economic Review 99(2), 110115.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Diamond, P (2004) Social security. American Economic Review 94(1), 124.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Edwards, RD (2013) The cost of uncertain life span. Journal of Population Economics 26, 14851522.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Finkelstein, A and Poterba, J (2004) Adverse selection in insurance markets: policyholder evidence from the U.K. Annuity market. Journal of Political Economy 112(1), 183208.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Gan, L, Gong, G, Hurd, M and McFadden, D (2015) Subjective mortality risk and bequests. Journal of Econometrics 188, 514525.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Gavrilov, LA and Gavrilova, NS (1991) The Biology of Lifespan: A Quantitative Approach. London, UK: Harwood Academic Publishers.Google Scholar
Gavrilov, LA and Gavrilova, NS (2001) The reliability theory of aging and longevity. Journal of Theoretical Biology 213(4), 527545.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Goldman, DP and Orszag, PR (2014) The growing gap in life expectancy: using the future elderly model to estimate implications for social security and medicare. American Economic Review 104(5), 230233.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Gompertz, B (1825) On the nature of the function expressive of the law of human mortality and on a new mode of determining the value of life contingencies. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London 115, 513583.Google Scholar
Holzman, R, Alonso-Garcia, J, Labit-Hardy, H and Villegas, AM (2017) NDC Schemes and Heterogeneity in Longevity: Proposals for Redesign. CEPAR.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hosseini, R (2015) Adverse selection in the annuity market and the role for social security. Journal of Political Economy 123(4), 941984.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Inkman, J, Lopes, P and Michaelides, A (2010) How deep is the annuity market participation puzzle. The Review of Financial Studies 24(1), 279317.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kotlikoff, LJ and Spivak, A (1981) The family as an incomplete annuity market. Journal of Political Economy 89(2), 372391.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Levhari, D and Mirman, LJ (1977) Savings and consumption with an uncertain horizon. Journal of Political Economy 85(2), 265281.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Marmot, MG and Shipley, MJ (1996) Do socioeconomic differences in mortality persist after retirement? 25 year follow up of civil servants from the first Whitehall study. British Medical Journal 313, 11771180.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Milevsky, MA and Huang, H (2018) The utility value of longevity risk pooling: analytic insights. North American Actuarial Journal 22(4), 574590.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Milligan, K and Schirle, T (2018) The evolution of longevity: evidence from Canada. National Bureau of Economic Research, working paper # 24929.Google Scholar
O'Donoghue, T and Somerville, J (2018) Modeling risk aversion in economics. Journal of Economic Perspectives 32(2), 91111.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Pashchenko, S (2013) Accounting for non-annuitization. Journal of Public Economics 98, 5367.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Peltzman, S (2009) Mortality inequality. Journal of Economic Perspectives 23(4), 175190.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Poterba, JM (2014) Retirement security in an aging population. American Economic Review 104(5), 130.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Poterba, JM, Venti, S and Wise, D (2011) The composition and drawdown of wealth in retirement. Journal of Economic Perspectives 25(4), 95118.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Reichling, F and Smetters, K (2015) Optimal annuitization with stochastic mortality and correlated mortality cost. American Economic Review 11, 32733320.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Schildberg-Hörisch, H (2018) Are risk preferences stable? Journal of Economic Perspectives 32(2), 135145.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Sheshinski, E (2007) The Economic Theory of Annuities. Princeton: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Tuljapurkar, S and Edwards, RD (2011) Variance in death and its implications for modeling and forecasting mortality. Demographic Research 24, 497526.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Yaari, ME (1965) Uncertain lifetime, life insurance and the theory of the consumer. The Review of Economic Studies 32(2), 137150.CrossRefGoogle Scholar