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The age pattern of mortality

  • L. Heligman and J. H. Pollard
Extract

The development of a ‘law of mortality’, a mathematical expression for the graduation of the age pattern of mortality, has been of interest since the development of the first life tables by John Graunt (1662) and Edmund Halley (1693). Although Abraham De Moivre proposed a very simple law as early as 1725 the best known early contribution is probably that of Benjamin Gompertz (1825). Since World War II mathematical formulae have been used to graduate sections of the English Life Tables, as well as assured lives mortality, and pensioner and annuitant mortality. Reviews of attempts at finding the ‘law of mortality’ have been given by Elston and Benjamin and Haycocks.

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References
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(1) Australia, Australian Bureau of Statistics (1976) Australian Life Tables 1970–72, by Caffin, S. W.. Canberra.
(2) Australia, Commonwealth Bureau of Census and Statistics (1950) Australian Life Tables 1946–48, by Balmford, W. C.. Canberra.
(3) Australia, Commonwealth Bureau of Census and Statistics (1965) Australian Life Tables 1960–1962, by Caffin, S. W.. Canberra.
(4) Benjamin, B. & Haycocks, H. W. (1970) The Analysis of Mortality and Other Actuarial Statistics. Cambridge University Press: Cambridge.
(5) Coale, A. J. & Demeny, P. (1966) Regional Model Life Tables and Stable Populations. Princeton University Press: Princeton.
(6) Elston, J. S. (1923) ‘Survey of Mathematical Formulas that have been Used to Express a Law of Mortality’. The Record. Part 1, no. 25, 6686. American Institute of Actuaries.
(7) Institute of Actuaries and Faculty of Actuaries. Continuous Mortality Investigation Committee (1974) ‘Considerations Affecting the Preparation of Standard Tables of Mortality’. J.I.A., 101, 135201.
(8) Institute of Actuaries and Faculty of Actuaries. Continuous Mortality Investigation Committee (1976) CMIR 2.
(9) Sadler, D. R. (1975) Numerical Methods for Nonlinear Regression. University of Queensland Press: St Lucia.
(10) Thiele, P. N. (1872) ‘On a Mathematical Formula to Express the Rate of Mortality throughout the Whole of Life’. J.I.A. 16, 313.
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Journal of the Institute of Actuaries
  • ISSN: 0020-2681
  • EISSN: 2058-1009
  • URL: /core/journals/journal-of-the-institute-of-actuaries
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