The object of the present paper is simply to bring to the notice of the members of the Institute the results of an investigation into the mortality prevailing amongst the different classes of bonus policyholders in the above-named Company, and to point out what appears to be the practical bearing of these results. There are also one or two points in connection with the collecting of the experience which may be worth mentioning.

In the company in question (in common, I believe, with many societies) an option is given to the policyholders, on the occasion of the first division of profits in which they are to participate, of receiving the value of their bonus in one of three ways:—

I. Cash.

II. Reversionary Additions.

III. Reduction of future Premiums (either for life or for three years).

The selection has usually been understood to be made once for all, but, as a matter of fact, the option has been occasionally allowed at subsequent distributions.

There appeared to be some reason for anticipating a difference in the relative mortality of these three classes of policyholders in consequence of the exercise of this option. This seemed at least a point worth testing by an appeal to actual experience; and it was mainly with the view of instituting such a test that the investigation referred to was commenced.

I think the time has arrived when the subject indicated in the title of this paper may be fairly and fully considered. It is certainly one which must frequently have presented itself to the managerial mind; and there can be no reason why this question should not be discussed with as much philosophic calmness as any of the many theoretical problems, or points in practice, which continually present themselves for reflection, and perchance for decision.

The point may indeed arise—whether I am the proper person to introduce the topic. I take the individual responsibility of deciding in the affirmative. I have, on the one hand, been as frequently assailed by the insurance press, as any one, and, on the other, received as much kindness and friendly recognition as any man can desire, and more than I claim to deserve. It may be that in either case the extreme has been reached, or passed. I have the advantage of having been a writer upon the press, insurance and general, from the days of my youth, and I say at once that my sympathies are largely on that side. But I think that the familiarity which draws me to the side of its virtues, also renders me, at least in some degree, cognizant of its short-comings. I have the further advantage of having been on various occasions consulted by managers on the one hand, and by editors on the other, upon the points which I now proceed to discuss.

A considerable number of investigations on mortality in times past has already been published, and without scarcely any exception they all go to show the same thing, that the mortality now-a-days is much smaller than it used to be. Some of these results are, however, only found by a sort of induction, in considering the conditions of life and the state of medical science in past centuries, and most of the statistical facts do not go farther back than to 1750; for more remote periods, the statistical information which has been gathered is scanty, untrustworthy, and dispersed.

I therefore undertook the task of investigating a distinct class of society during as long a period as possible, hoping thus to be able to confirm or correct our notions on the variations of mortality. The materials were taken from an elaborate biographical work by the Rev. S. V. Wiberg, published 1870—71, with a supplement from 1879.

I confess that the general impression of the results was that of a disappointment. In fact, the materials appeared so incorrect, that distinct numerical conclusions were not admissible. Still, I have thought it of interest to publish the chief results, hoping that, by-and-by, more correct materials may be at hand, and that the readers will consider the results here laid down as merely preliminary.