Hostname: page-component-848d4c4894-xm8r8 Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-06-16T15:04:00.012Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

Conditional Cash Transfer Programs, the Economy, and Presidential Elections in Latin America

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  05 September 2022

Diego Sanches Corrêa
Diego Sanches Corrêa*
Affiliation:
University of São Paulo
Rights & Permissions [Opens in a new window]

Abstract

Core share and HTML view are not available for this content. However, as you have access to this content, a full PDF is available via the ‘Save PDF’ action button.

Numerous recent country studies demonstrate that beneficiaries of conditional cash transfer (CCT) programs vote for incumbents at higher rates. It is reasonable to expect that, as a consequence, those incumbents will perform better nationally in the next election. This article warns against such an extrapolation. It analyzes an original cross-national data set with information for eighty-four Latin American presidential elections that took place between 1990 and 2010. My results reveal that CCT programs have not improved incumbents' aggregate electoral performances in the region, contradicting common speculative claims of the literature. They also confirm the classic economic voting hypothesis that incumbents are held accountable in the polls for their economic performance.

Resumo

Resumo

Diversos estudos recentes mostram que beneficiários de programas de transferência de renda condicionada (TRC) votam em incumbentes com maior frequência. Consequentemente, é razoável esperar que esses incumbentes tenham um melhor desempenho na eleição seguinte. Este artigo serve de advertência contra este tipo de extrapolação. Nele, eu analiso um banco de dados cross-nacional com informações sobre oitenta e quatro eleições presidenciais latino-americanas que ocorreram entre 1990 e 2010. Meus resultados revelam que programas de TRC não melhoraram o desempenho eleitoral agregado de incumbentes, contradizendo especulações frequentes da literatura. Eles também confirmam a hipótese clássica do voto económico de que incumbentes são chamados a prestar contas nas eleições pelo desempenho da economia.

Type
Research Article
Information
Latin American Research Review , Volume 50 , Issue 2 , 2015 , pp. 63 - 85
Copyright
Copyright © 2015 by the Latin American Studies Association

Footnotes

I appreciate the advice and suggestions from my former PhD advisor José Cheibub during the time I did the research that led to this article. I also want to thank professors Matthew Winters, Damarys Canache, and Rodolfo Hoffman, as well as three anonymous referees, for their insightful comments and critiques. All shortcomings of this article are my own responsibility.

References

APPENDIX A: SOURCES AND DATES OF INFORMATION ON CCT PROGRAMS

Argentina 2003: Ministerio de Desarrollo SocialGoogle Scholar
Argentina October 2007: Ministerio de Desarrollo Social (Resumen Ejecutivo 2007)Google Scholar
Bolivia 2009: Bono Juancito Pinto: Ministerio de Educación; Bono Juana Azurduy: Ministerio de Salud e Deportes (“Estado del Ministerio de Salud y Deportes, durante la gestión 2005-2008”. Estado Plurinacional de Bolivia - Ministerio de Salud y Deportes). Note: Only the number of granted women and children is published, and not the number of households.Google Scholar
Brazil July 2002: Bolsa Escola: Sistema Bolsa Escola (SIBES), Ministério da Educação; Bolsa Alimentação, Ministério da SaúdeGoogle Scholar
Brazil December 2006: Ministério de Desenvolvimento Social e Combate à FomeGoogle Scholar
Brazil December 2010: Ministério de Desenvolvimento Social e Combate à FomeGoogle Scholar
Chile 2005: Secretaría Ejecutiva del Chile Solidario, Ministerio de PlanificaciónGoogle Scholar
Chile May 2009: Ministerio de PlanificaciónGoogle Scholar
Colombia December 2002: Agencia Presidencial para la Acción Social y para la Cooperación InternacionalGoogle Scholar
Colombia June 6, 2006: Agencia Presidencial para la Acción Social y para la Cooperación InternacionalGoogle Scholar
Colombia June 30, 2010: Agencia Presidencial para la Acción Social y para la Cooperación InternacionalGoogle Scholar
Rica, Costa December 31, 2009: Instituto Mixto de Ayuda SocialGoogle Scholar
Dominican Republic May 2008: Programa Solidaridad: Nómina de Beneficiários 05/2008Google Scholar
Ecuador October 2006: Ministerio de Inclusión Económica y Social (Programa de Protección Social)Google Scholar
Ecuador April 2009: Ministerio de Inclusión Económica y Social (Programa de Protección Social)Google Scholar
Salvador, El March 2009: Fondo de Inversión Social para el Desarrollo LocalGoogle Scholar
Guatemala April 31, 2011: Mi Familia Progresa, Consejo de Cohesión SocialGoogle Scholar
Honduras 1993: Inter-American Development Bank (11/10/1998 Loan Proposal)Google Scholar
Honduras 1997: Inter-American Development Bank (11/10/1998 Loan Proposal)Google Scholar
Honduras 2001: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean, United NationsGoogle Scholar
Honduras 2005: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean, United NationsGoogle Scholar
Honduras 2009: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean, United NationsGoogle Scholar
Mexico May 6, 2000: Secretaría de Desarrollo SocialGoogle Scholar
Mexico May 6, 2006: Secretaría de Desarrollo SocialGoogle Scholar
Nicaragua 2001: Inter-American Development Bank (Informe de Terminación de Proyecto: Red de Protección Social, Fase 1)Google Scholar
Nicaragua 2006: Moore 2009Google Scholar
Panama 2009: Ministerio de Desarrollo Social (Avance al Mes de Julio de 2010)Google Scholar
Paraguay December 2007: Contraloría General de la Republica (Audit Report)Google Scholar
Peru April 2006: Programa Juntos, Portal de Transparencia (Plan Operativo 2008)Google Scholar
Peru March 4, 2011: Programa Juntos, Porta de Transparencia (Plan Operativo 2011 Reformulado) UruguayGoogle Scholar
Peru January 3, 2009: Ministerio de Desarrollo Social, Observatorio Social de Programas e IndicadoresGoogle Scholar

APPENDIX B: SOURCES OF INFORMATION ON PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS

Argentina: Ministerio del Interior (all elections)Google Scholar
Bolivia: Tribunal Supremo Electoral (all elections)Google Scholar
Brazil: Tribunal Superior Eleitoral (1994, 1998, 2002, 2006, 2010); Nohlen 2005b (1989)Google Scholar
Chile: Servicio Electoral (all elections)Google Scholar
Colombia: Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil (1998), 2002, 2006, 2010); Nohlen 2005b (1986, 1990, 1994)Google Scholar
Costa Rica: Tribunal Supremo de Elecciones (all elections)Google Scholar
Dominican Republic: Junta Central Electoral (all elections)Google Scholar
Ecuador: Consejo Nacional Electoral (2002), 2006, 2009); Nohlen 2005b (1988, 1992, 1996, 1998)Google Scholar
El Salvador: Tribunal Supremo Electoral (1994, 1999, 2004, 2009); Nohlen 2005a (1989) Guatemala: Tribunal Supremo Electoral (1999, 2003, 2007); Nohlen 2005a (1985, 1990, 1995)Google Scholar
Honduras: Tribunal Supremo Electoral (all elections)Google Scholar
Mexico: Instituto Federal Electoral (1994, 2000, 2006); Nohlen 2005a (1988)Google Scholar
Nicaragua: Consejo Supremo Electoral (2001), 2006); Nohlen 2005a (1984, 1990, 1996)Google Scholar
Panama: Tribunal Electoral (1994, 1999, 2004, 2009), Nohlen 2005a (1989)Google Scholar
Paraguay: Justicia Electoral (1998), 2003, 2008); Nohlen 2005b (1989, 1993)Google Scholar
Peru: Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales (all elections)Google Scholar
Uruguay: Corte Electoral (all elections)Google Scholar
Venezuela: Consejo Nacional Electoral (all elections)Google Scholar

References

Anderson, Christopher 1995 Blaming the Government: Citizens and the Economy in Five European Democracies. New York: M. E. Sharpe.Google Scholar
Anderson, Christopher 2000 “Economic Voting and Political Context: A Comparative Perspective.” Electoral Studies 19 (2-3): 151–170.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Anderson, Christopher 2007 “The End of Economic Voting? Contingency Dilemmas and the Limits of Democratic Accountability.” Annual Review of Political Science 10 (1): 271–296.Google Scholar
Bohn, Simone R. 2011 “Social Policy and Vote in Brazil: Bolsa Família and the Shifts in Lula's Electoral Base” Latin American Research Review 46 (1): 54–79.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Canêdo-Pinheiro, Maurício 2009 “Bolsa Família ou desempenho da economia? Determinantes da reeleição de Lula em 2006.” Paper presented at the thirty-seventh Encontro Nacional de Economia, Foz do Iguaçu, Brazil.Google Scholar
De la O, Ana L. 2013 “Do Conditional Cash Transfers Affect Electoral Behavior? Evidence from a Randomized Experiment in Mexico.” American Journal of Political Science 57 (1): 1–14.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Díaz-Cayeros, Alberto, Estévez, Federico, and Magaloni, Beatriz 2009 “Welfare Benefits, Canvassing, and Campaign Handouts.” In Consolidating Mexico's Democracy: The 2006 Presidential Campaign in Comparative Perspective, edited by Domínguez, Jorge, Lawson, Chappell, and Moreno, Alejandro, 229–245. Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press.Google Scholar
Duch, Raymond M., and Stevenson, Randolph T. 2008 The Economic Vote: How Political and Economic Institutions Condition Election Results. New York: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hellwig, Timothy, and Samuels, David 2008 “Electoral Accountability and the Variety of Democratic Regimes.” British Journal of Political Science 38 (1): 65–90.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hunter, Wendy, and Power, Timothy J. 2007 “Rewarding Lula: Executive Power, Social Policy, and the Brazilian Elections of 2006.” Latin American Politics and Society 49 (1): 1–30.Google Scholar
Layton, Matthew L., and Smith, Erica S. 2011 “Social Assistance Policies and the Presidential Vote in Latin America.” Americas-Barometer Insights (66).Google Scholar
Lewis-Beck, Michael S., and Stegmaier, Mary 2000 “Economic Determinants of Electoral Outcomes.” Annual Review of Political Science 3 (1): 183–219.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Licio, Elaine C., Rennó, Lucio R., and Castro, Henrique C. O. 2009 “Bolsa Familia e voto na eleição presidencial de 2006: Em busca do elo perdido.” Opinião Pública 15 (1): 31–54.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Manacorda, Marco, Miguel, Edward, and Vigorito, Andrea 2011 “Government Transfers and Political Support.” American Economic Journal: Applied Economics 3 (3): 1–28.Google Scholar
Marques, Rosa Maria, Leite, Marcel Guedes, Mendes, Aquilas, and Ferreira, Mariana Ribeiro Jansen 2009 “Discutindo o papel do programa Bolsa Família na decisão das eleições presidenciais brasileiras de 2006.” Revista de Economia Política 29 (1): 114–132.Google Scholar
McDonald, Michael D., and Budge, Ian 2005 Elections, Parties, Democracy: Conferring the Median Mandate. New York: Oxford University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Moore, Charity 2009 Nicaragua's Red de Protección Social: An Exemplary but Short-Lived Conditional Cash Transfer Programme. Country Study 17. Brasília: International Policy Centre for Inclusive Growth, United Nations.Google Scholar
Nannestad, Peter, and Paldam, Martin 1994 “The VP-Function: A Survey of the Literature on Vote and Popularity Functions after 25 Years.” Public Choice 79 ((3/4)): 213-245.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Nannestad, Peter, and Paldam, Martin 2002 “The Cost of Ruling: A Foundation Stone for Two Theories.” In Economic Voting, edited by Dorussen, Han and Taylor, Michaell, 17–44. London: Routledge/ECPR.Google Scholar
Nicolau, Jairo, and Peixoto, Vitor 2007 “As bases municipais da votação de Lula em 2006.” Cadernos do Fórum Nacional, 6, 15–25. Rio de Janeiro: Instituto Nacional de Altos Estudos.Google Scholar
Nohlen, Dieter, ed. 2005a Elections in the Americas, Vol. 1, North America, Central America, and the Caribbean. New York: Oxford University Press.Google Scholar
Nohlen, Dieter, ed. 2005b Elections in the Americas, Vol. 2, South America. New York: Oxford University Press.Google Scholar
Nupia, Oskar 2011 “Anti-Poverty Programs and Presidential Election Outcomes: Familias en Acción in Colombia.” Documento CEDE (Universidad de los Andes. Bogotá), no. 2011–14.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Paldam, Martin 1991 “How Robust Is the Vote Function? A Study of Seventeen Nations over Four Decades.” In Economics and Politics: The Calculus of Support, edited by Norpoth, Helmuth, Lewis-Beck, Michael S., and Lafay, Jean-Dominique, 9–31. Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press.Google Scholar
Powell, G. Bingham Jr., and Whitten, Guy D. 1993 “A Cross-National Analysis of Economic Voting: Taking Account of the Political Context.” American Journal of Political Science 37 (2): 391–414.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Queirolo, Rosario 2010 “El rol de los programas de transferencias monetarias en la reelección del Frente Amplio en 2009.” In Del cambio a la continuidad: Ciclo electoral 2009-2010 en Uruguay, edited by Buquet, Daniel and Johnson, Niki, 195–212. Montevideo: Editorial Fin de Siglo, CLACSO & ICP.Google Scholar
Remmer, Karen L. 1991 “The Political Impact of Economic Crisis in Latin America in the 1980s.” American Political Science Review 85 (3): 777–800.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Samuels, David 2004 “Presidentialism and Accountability for the Economy in Comparative Perspective” American Political Science Review 98 (3): 425–436.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Samuels, David, and Hellwig, Timothy 2010 “Electoral Accountability and the Clarity of Responsibility: A Conceptual and Empirical Reassessment.” Journal of Elections, Public Opinion and Parties 20 (4): 393–414.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Schneider, Friederich, and Frey, Bruno S. 1988 “Politico-Economic Models of Macroeconomic Policy: A Review of Empirical Evidence.” In Political Business Cycles: The Political Economy of Money, Inflation, and Unemployment, edited by Willett, Thomas, 239–275. Durham, NC: Duke University Press.Google Scholar
Serdán, Alberto 2006 “Programas sociales y elecciones: Análisis de los programas de combate a la pobreza en contextos electorales durante la administración de Vicente Fox.” Avances y Retrocesos, una Evaluación Ciudadana del Sexenio 2000-2006 (5) Fundar, Centro de Análisis e Investigación. México DF.Google Scholar
Shikida, Claudio Djissey, Monasterio, Leonardo Monteiro, Ari Francisco de, Araujo Jr., Carraro, Andre, and Damé, Otávio Menezes 2009 “Tt Is the Economy, Companheiro!': An Empirical Analysis of Lula's Re-Election Based on Municipal Data.” Economics Bulletin 29 (2): 977–992.Google Scholar
Soares, Gláucio A. D., and Terron, Sonia L. 2008 “Dois Lulas: A geografia eleitoral da reeleição (Explorando Conceitos, Métodos e Técnicas de Análise Geoespacial).” Opinião Pública 14 (2): 269–301.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Wiesehomeier, Nina, and Benoit, Kenneth 2009 “Presidents, Parties, and Policy Competition.” Journal of Politics 71 (4): 1435–1447.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Zucco, Cesar Jr. 2008 “The President's ‘New’ Constituency: Lula and the Pragmatic Vote in Brazil's 2006 Presidential Elections.” Journal of Latin American Studies 40 (1): 29–49.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Zucco, Cesar Jr. 2013 “When Payouts Pay Off: Conditional Cash Transfers and Voting Behavior in Brazil 2002-10.” American Journal of Political Science 57 (4): 810–822.Google Scholar