Hostname: page-component-76fb5796d-9pm4c Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-04-27T16:29:12.338Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false

Government spending multipliers with the Real Cost channel

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  06 July 2023

He Nie*
Affiliation:
Economics and Management School, Wuhan University, Wuhan, China

Abstract

In the benchmark New Keynesian (NK) model, I introduce the real cost channel to study government spending multipliers and provide simple Markov chain closed-form solutions. This model departs fundamentally from most previous interpretations of the nominal cost channel by flattening the NK Phillips Curve in liquidity traps. At the zero lower bound, I show analytically that following positive government spending shocks, the real cost channel can make inflation rise less than in a model without this channel. This then causes a smaller drop in real interest rates, resulting in a lower output gap multiplier. Finally, I confirm the robustness of the real cost channel’s effect on multipliers using extensions of two models.

Type
Articles
Copyright
© The Author(s), 2023. Published by Cambridge University Press

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

Footnotes

*

I would like to thank my advisor, Jordan Roulleau-Pasdeloup, for his extensive comments. I would also thank Chang Liu, Paul Gabriel Jackson, Denis Tkachenko, Yujie Yang as well as participants in NUS GRS and the CEC-NTU Joint Online workshop 2021 for their comments and suggestions.

References

Abo-Zaid, S. (2022) The government spending multiplier in a model with the cost channel. Macroeconomic Dynamics 26(1), 72101.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Acconcia, A., Corsetti, G. and Simonelli, S. (2014) Mafia and public spending: Evidence on the fiscal multiplier from a quasi-experiment. American Economic Review 104(7), 21852209.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Amano, R. A. and Wirjanto, T. S. (1997) Intratemporal substitution and government spending. Review of Economics and Statistics 79(4), 605609.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Angeletos, G.-M. and Lian, C. (2018) Forward guidance without common knowledge. American Economic Review 108(9), 24772512.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Aruoba, S. B., Cuba-Borda, P. and Schorfheide, F. (2018) Macroeconomic dynamics near the ZLB: A tale of two countries. The Review of Economic Studies 85(1), 87118.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Auerbach, A. J., Gorodnichenko, Y., McCrory, P. and Murphy, D. (2021) Fiscal multipliers in the COVID19 recession. Technical Report. National Bureau of Economic Research.Google Scholar
Auerbach, A. and Gorodnichenko, Y. (2012) Fiscal multipliers in recession and expansion. In: “Fiscal Policy after the Financial Crisis” NBER Chapters. National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.Google Scholar
Bachmann, R. and Sims, E. R. (2012) Confidence and the transmission of government spending shocks. Journal of Monetary Economics 59(3), 235249.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Barro, R. J. and Redlick, C. J. (2011) Macroeconomic effects from government purchases and taxes. The Quarterly Journal of Economics 126(1), 51102.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bayer, C., Born, B. and Luetticke, R. (2022) The liquidity channel of fiscal policy. Journal of Monetary Economics 134, 86117.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Beaudry, P., Hou, C. and Portier, F. (2022), Monetary Policy When the Phillips Curve is Quite Flat. CEPR Discussion Paper DP15184, Working Paper.Google Scholar
Bhandari, A., Evans, D., Golosov, M. and Sargent, T. J. (2021) Inequality, business cycles, and monetary-fiscal policy. Econometrica 89(6), 25592599.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bilbiie, F. O. (2020) The new Keynesian cross. Journal of Monetary Economics 114, 90108.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bilbiie, F. O. (2019a) Monetary Policy and Heterogeneity: An Analytical Framework. CEPR Discussion Papers 12601, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.Google Scholar
Bilbiie, F. O. (2008) Limited asset markets participation, monetary policy and (inverted) aggregate demand logic. Journal of Economic Theory 140(1), 162196.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bilbiie, F. O. (2019b) Optimal forward guidance. American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics 11(4), 310345.Google Scholar
Blanchard, O. and Perotti, R. (2002) An empirical characterization of the dynamic effects of changes in government spending and taxes on output. The Quarterly Journal of Economics 117(4), 13291368.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bouakez, H., Guillard, M. and Roulleau-Pasdeloup, J. (2017) Public investment, time to build, and the zero lower bound. Review of Economic Dynamics, January 23, 6079.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bouakez, H., Guillard, M. and Roulleau-Pasdeloup, J. (2020) The optimal composition of public spending in a deep recession. Journal of Monetary Economics 114, 334349.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Budianto, F., Nakata, T. and Schmidt, S. (2020) Average inflation targeting and the interest rate lower bound. Working Paper.Google Scholar
Cantore, C. and Freund, L. B. (2021) Workers, capitalists, and the government: Fiscal policy and income (re) distribution. Journal of monetary economics 119, 5874.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Chowdhury, I., Hoffmann, M. and Schabert, A. (2006) Inflation dynamics and the cost channel of monetary transmission. European Economic Review 50(4), 9951016.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Christiano, L. J., Eichenbaum, M. and Evans, C. L. (2011) When is the government spending multiplier large? Journal of Political Economy 119(1), 78121.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Christiano, L. J., Eichenbaum, M. and Evans, C. L. (2005) Nominal rigidities and the dynamic effects of a shock to monetary policy. Journal of Political Economy 113(1), 145.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Cochrane, J. H. (2017) The new-Keynesian liquidity trap. Journal of Monetary Economics 92(C), 4763.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Coibion, O., Georgarakos, D., Gorodnichenko, Y. and Weber, M. (2020) Forward guidance and household expectations. Technical Report. National Bureau of Economic Research.Google Scholar
Durevall, D. and Henrekson, M. (2011) The futile quest for a grand explanation of long-run government expenditure. Journal of Public Economics 95(7-8), 708722.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Eggertsson, G. B. and Woodford, M, P. (2003) Zero bound on interest rates and optimal monetary policy. Brookings Papers on Economic Activity 2003(1), 139233.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Eggertsson, G. B. (2001) Real Government Spending in a Liquidity Trap. Princeton University. Unpublished manuscript.Google Scholar
Eggertsson, G. B. (2011) What fiscal policy is effective at zero interest rates? NBER Macroeconomics Annual 25(1), 59112.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Eggertsson, G. B. and Woodford, M. (2003) Optimal Monetary Policy in a Liquidity Trap. NBER Working Papers 9968, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Eggertsson, G. B. and Woodford, M. (2004) Optimal Monetary and Fiscal Policy in a Liquidity Trap. Working Paper, National Bureau of Economic Research.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Farhi, E. and án Werning, I. (2019) Monetary policy, bounded rationality, and incomplete markets. American Economic Review 109(11), 38873928.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Gabaix, X. (2020) A behavioral new Keynesian model. American Economic Review 110(8), 22712327.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Galí, J. (2015) Monetary Policy, Inflation, and the Business Cycle: An Introduction to the New Keynesian Framework and Its Applications. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Gertler, M., Gali, J. and Clarida, R. (1999) The science of monetary policy: A new Keynesian perspective. Journal of Economic Literature 37(4), 16611707.Google Scholar
Han, Z., Tan, F. and Wu, J. (2020) Learning from monetary and fiscal policy. Available at SSRN 3726905.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hazell, J., Herreño, J., Nakamura, E. and øn Steinsson, J (2020) The Slope of the Phillips Curve: Evidence from U.S. States. Working Paper, National Bureau of Economic Research.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
House, C. L., Proebsting, C. and Tesar, L. L. (2020) Austerity in the aftermath of the great recession. Journal of Monetary Economics 115, 3763.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Barth, M. J. III, Ramey, V. A. (2001) The cost channel of monetary transmission. NBER Macroeconomics Annual 16, 199240.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Ilzetzki, E., Mendoza, E. G. and Végh, C. A. (2013) How big (small?) are fiscal multipliers? Journal of Monetary Economics 60(2), 239254.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kiley, M. T. (2014), Policy Paradoxes in the New Keynesian Model. Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2014-29, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).Google Scholar
Koester, G., Lis, E., Nickel, C., Osbat, C. and Smets, F. (2021) Understanding low inflation in the euro area from 2013 to 2019: Cyclical and structural drivers. ECB Occasional Paper (2021280).CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kollmann, R., Roeger, W., Veld, J. (2012) Fiscal policy in a financial crisis: Standard policy versus bank rescue measures. American Economic Review 102(3), 7781.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kraay, A. (2012) How large is the government spending multiplier? Evidence from World Bank lending. The Quarterly Journal of Economics 127(2), 829887.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Laubach, T. and Williams, J. C. (2003) Measuring the natural rate of interest. Review of Economics and Statistics 85(4), 10631070.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Leduc, S. and Wilson, D. (2013) Roads to prosperity or bridges to nowhere? Theory and evidence on the impact of public infrastructure investment. NBER Macroeconomics Annual 27(1), 89142.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Leeper, E. M., Traum, N. and Walker, T. B. (2017) Clearing up the fiscal multiplier morass. American Economic Review 107(8), 24092454.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lewis, D. J. (2021) Identifying shocks via time-varying volatility. The Review of Economic Studies 88(6), 30863124.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Llosa, L.-G. and Tuesta, V. (2009) Learning about monetary policy rules when the cost-channel matters. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control 33(11), 18801896.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
McKay, A., Nakamura, E. and Steinsson, J. (2016) The power of forward guidance revisited. American Economic Review 106(10), 31333158.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Mertens, K. R. S. M. and Ravn, M. O. (2014) Fiscal policy in an expectations-driven liquidity trap. The Review of Economic Studies 81(4), 16371667.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Miyamoto, W., Nguyen, T. L. and Sergeyev, D. (2018) Government spending multipliers under the zero lower bound: Evidence from Japan. American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics 10(3), 247277.Google Scholar
Nakata, T., Ogaki, R., Schmidt, S. and Yoo, P. (2019) Attenuating the forward guidance puzzle: Implications for optimal monetary policy. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control 105, 90106.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Nie, H. (2021) The macroeconomic effects of tax shocks: The real cost channel. Available at SSRN 3905695.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Nie, H. and Roulleau-Pasdeloup, J. (2023) The promises (and perils) of control-contingent forward guidance. Review of Economic Dynamics 49, 7798.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Ramey, V. A. (2011) Identifying government spending shocks: It’s all in the timing. The Quarterly Journal of Economics 126(1), 150.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Ramey, V. A. and Zubairy, S. (2018) Government spending multipliers in good times and in bad: Evidence from US historical data. Journal of Political Economy 126(2), 850901.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Ravenna, F. and Walsh, C. E. (2006) Optimal monetary policy with the cost channel. Journal of Monetary Economics 2(53), 199216.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Roulleau-Pasdeloup, J. (2023) Analyzing linear DSGE models: The method of undetermined Markov states. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control 151, 104629.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Roulleau-Pasdeloup, J. (2021) The public investment multiplier: Insights from a new analytical framework. Working Paper.Google Scholar
Sarin, N., Summers, L. H., Zidar, O. M. and Zwick, E. (2021) Rethinking How We Score Capital Gains Tax Reform. NBER Working Papers 28362, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Schmidt, S. (2017) Fiscal activism and the zero nominal interest rate bound. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking 49(4), 695732.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Smith, A. L. (2016) When does the cost channel pose a challenge to inflation targeting central banks? European Economic Review 89, 471494.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Surico, P. (2008) The cost channel of monetary policy and indeterminacy. Macroeconomic Dynamics 5(12), 724735.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Taylor, J. B. (1993) Discretion versus policy rules in practice. Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy 39(1), 195214.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Tillmann, P. (2009) Optimal monetary policy with an uncertain cost channel. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking 41(5), 885906.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Woodford, M. (2003) Optimal interest-rate smoothing. The Review of Economic Studies 70(4), 861886.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Yaffe, D. L. (2019) The Interstate Multiplier. University of California, San Diego Working paper.Google Scholar
Zubairy, S. (2014) On fiscal multipliers: Estimates from a medium scale DSGE model. International Economic Review 55(1), 169195.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Supplementary material: PDF

Nie supplementary material

Online Appendix

Download Nie supplementary material(PDF)
PDF 1.3 MB