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INDIVIDUAL EXPECTATIONS AND AGGREGATE BEHAVIOR IN LEARNING-TO-FORECAST EXPERIMENTS

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  09 December 2011

Cars Hommes  and
Thomas Lux
Cars Hommes*
Affiliation:
University of Amsterdam
Thomas Lux
Affiliation:
University of Kiel, Kiel Institute for the World Economy and Bank of Spain Chair in Computational Economics, University of Castellón
*
Address correspondence to: Cars Hommes CeNDEF, School of Economics, University of Amsterdam, Valckenierstraat 65-67, 1018 XE Amsterdam, the Netherlands; e-mail: C.H.Hommes@uva.nl.
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Abstract

Models with heterogeneous interacting agents explain macro phenomena through interactions at the micro level. We propose genetic algorithms as a model for individual expectations to explain aggregate market phenomena. The model explains all stylized facts observed in aggregate price fluctuations and individual forecasting behaviour in recent learning-to-forecast laboratory experiments with human subjects (Hommes et al. 2007), simultaneously and across different treatments.

Keywords

LearningHeterogeneous ExpectationsGenetic AlgorithmsExperimental Economics

Information

Type
Articles
Information
Macroeconomic Dynamics , Volume 17 , Issue 2 , March 2013 , pp. 373 - 401
Copyright
Copyright © Cambridge University Press 2011

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