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A NOTE ON DEMAND AND SUPPLY FACTORS IN MANUFACTURING OUTPUT ASYMMETRIES

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  01 April 2009

Oleg Korenok ,
Bruce Mizrach  and
Stanislav Radchenko
Oleg Korenok
Affiliation:
Virginia Commonwealth University
Bruce Mizrach*
Affiliation:
Rutgers University
Stanislav Radchenko
Affiliation:
University of North Carolina at Charlotte
*
Address correspondence to: Bruce Mizrach, Department of Economics, Rutgers University, New Brunswick, NJ 08901, USA; e-mail: mizrach@econ.rutgers.edu.
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Abstract

In a Markov switching framework, we show that the duration of recessions is significantly shorter than the duration of expansions in 11 manufacturing sectors, and in aggregate durables and manufacturing output. We find two leading indicators, consumer expectations and the term spread, act as important demand-driven forces behind asymmetry.

Keywords

AsymmetryIndustryMarkov SwitchingLeading Indicators

Information

Type
Notes
Information
Macroeconomic Dynamics , Volume 13 , Issue 2 , April 2009 , pp. 263 - 277
Copyright
Copyright © Cambridge University Press 2009

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