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Seasonal Forcing Drives Spatio-TemporalPattern Formation in Rabies Epidemics

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  15 June 2008

N. V. Festenberg ,
T. Gross  and
B. Blasius
N. V. Festenberg
Affiliation:
Lehrstuhl Computergraphik und Visualisierung, Technische Universität Dresden Dresden, Germany
T. Gross
Affiliation:
Department of Chemical Engineering, Princeton University Princeton, USA
B. Blasius*
Affiliation:
Institut für Chemie und Biologie des Meeres, Universität Oldenburg Oldenburg, Germany
*
nf6@inf.tu-dresden.de
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Abstract

Seasonal forcing is identified as a key pattern generating mechanism in an epidemic model of rabies dispersal. We reduce an established individual-based high-detail modeldown to a deterministic conceptual model. The characteristic wave pattern characterized byhigh densities of infected individuals is maintained throughout the reduction process. In ourmodel it is evident that seasonal forcing is the dominant factor that drives pattern formation.In particular we show that seasonal forcing can cause splitting of epidemic wave fronts.

Keywords

pattern formationepidemicsrabiesseasonal forcing

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