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The Fractured Centre: ‘Two-headed government’ and threats to the peace process in Myanmar

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  14 January 2021

ARDETH MAUNG THAWNGHMUNG Open the ORCID record for ARDETH MAUNG THAWNGHMUNG [Opens in a new window]  and
SAW EH HTOO
ARDETH MAUNG THAWNGHMUNG
Affiliation:
Political Science Department, University of Massachusetts Lowell Email: Ardeth_Thawnghmung@uml.edu
SAW EH HTOO
Affiliation:
Payap University and Kaw Lah Foundation, Yangon Email: sehtoo@kawlah.org
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Abstract

This article analyses the evolving nature and dynamics of the relationship between the centre and the periphery by examining how semi-democratic reforms have shaped and influenced the peace negotiation process between the government and ethnic armed organizations (EAOs) since 2011. We demonstrate that while the 2008 constitution has reduced restrictions on political, economic, and cultural activities in Myanmar, it has also inevitably produced a ‘two-headed government’ after the main opposition party, the National League for Democracy (NLD), took charge in 2016 and was forced to share power with the military. This ‘two-headed’ government is the result of the historical distrust between the NLD and the army, combined with the NLD's lack of a clear strategy in dealing with EAOs. This has enabled the army to assert its well-articulated and hardline approach—without itself having an effective strategy or the capacity to end the country's armed insurgencies or bring the peace process forward. We show that the split at the centre has produced inertia and weakened the ability of the central government to formulate and implement effective policy, and further undermined the prospects for national reconciliation. Situating this case study within the wider literature of centre–periphery relationships and democratic transition, this article offers a nuanced and comprehensive analysis of how specific institutional arrangements at the centre in semi-democratic settings affect relations in both the centre and the periphery, as well as centre–periphery relationships.

Type
Research Article
Information
Modern Asian Studies , Volume 56 , Special Issue 2: Border Governance in Myanmar , March 2022 , pp. 504 - 532
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Copyright
Copyright © The Author(s) 2021. Published by Cambridge University Press

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Footnotes

Acknowledgments: We would like to thank participants in this study who generously gave us interviews, the anonymous reviewers of MAS for their valuable feedback, and Kirsten McConnachie and Elaine Ho who read drafts of the article and offered comments to help improve it. We also appreciate the research assistance of Nay Zaw Phyo. All errors and conclusions in this article are our own.

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30 Although experts have challenged the arbitrary manner in which these categories were drawn up, the official categories remain widely cited because of a lack of alternatives. The government has not released the results for ethnic groups from the 2014 population census. Ethnic groups such as Shan, Kayin (Karen), Rakhine, Mon, Kachin, Chin, and Kayah represent around 8.5, 6.2, 4.5, 2.4, 1.4, 2.2, and 0.4 per cent of the total population, respectively. There are numerous smaller linguistic groups in Myanmar, most of which are subgroups within the dominant linguistic groups.

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38 Lwin Cho Latt, Ben Hillman, Marlar Aung and Khin Sanda Myint, ‘From ceasefire to dialogue: The problem of “all-inclusiveness” in Myanmar's stalled peace process’, in Chambers et al. (eds), Myanmar transformed?, pp. 231–250.

39 Under the 2008 constitution, the national parliament exercises legislative authority over almost all sectors, including health and education. In addition, the president, rather than the regional parliaments, appoints regional chief ministers, who then form administrations headed by cabinet ministers. These ministers do not have ministries of their own, but answer to the corresponding ministries based in the capital.

40 Latt et al., ‘From ceasefire to dialogue’, pp. 240, 241.

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42 Respondent no. 8, a top KNU leader, conversation with author no. 1 (Ardeth Thawngmung), Yangon, 5 February 2015. Italics ours.

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47 Chapter 12 of the constitution.

48 Chapter 11, Articles 412 B, 418–419 of the constitution.

49 Respondent no. 3, member of government negotiation team, interview with author no. 2 (Saw Eh Too), Yangon, 24 March 2020.

50 Also see Chapter 11, Articles 417 and 427 of the constitution.

51 Thawnghmung and Robinson, ‘‘Myanmar's new era’, p. 244.

52 Maung Aung Myoe, ‘Partnership in politics: The Tatmadaw and the NLD in Myanmar since 2016’, in Chambers et al. (eds), Myanmar transformed?, pp. 206–207. Respondent no. 2, Dr Su Mon Thazin Aung, director of Capacity Building, Institute of Strategy and Policy, Myanmar, phone interview with author no. 1, 25 March 2020.

53 Respondent no. 2.

54 Respondent no. 1, Dr Maung Aung Myoe, expert on the Myanmar military and dean of the Graduate School of International Relations at the International University of Japan, telephone interview with author no. 1, 4 April 2020.

55 San Yamin Aung, ‘NLD's bid to end Myanmar military's constitutional grip on national security voted down’, The Irrawaddy, 19 March 2020. Thomas Fuller, ‘Myanmar's military uses political force to block constitutional changes’, The New York Times, 25 June 2015.

56 Thawnghmung, ‘Signs of life’, p. 384.

57 Respondent no. 4, Skype interview with author no. 1, 21 March 2020.

58 Respondent no. 1.

59 Respondent no. 1, conversation with author no. 1, Yangon, 8 July 2018.

60 Respondent no. 4.

61 Latt et al., ‘From ceasefire to dialogue’, p. 237.

62 Richard Sargent and Hla Hla Htay, ‘NMSP, LDU formally sign Nationwide Ceasefire Agreement’, AFP, 13 February 2018.

63 Nyein Nyein, ‘Analysis: Why did the KNU temporarily leave peace talks?’, The Irrawaddy, 29 October 2018.

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67 Myanmar Peace Monitor, available at http://mmpeacemonitor.org/stakeholders/armed-ethnic-groups, [accessed 18 November 2020]. Respondent no. 2, Anders Cor, ‘China's diplo-terrorism in Myanmar’, available at https://spotlight.licas.news/china-s-diplo-terrorism-in-myanmar/index.html, [accessed 19 November 2020].

68 Respondents no. 2 and 3.

69 Respondent no. 9, interview with author no. 2, Pa-an, 12 March 2020. It should be noted, however, that several constitutional proposals have focused on changing Article 262 B to allow the regional legislature, instead of the president, to appoint chief minsters. See a report by Union Legislature, 10 February 2020, in Burmese, available at https://pyidaungsu.hluttaw.mm/reports, [accessed 19 November 2020].

70 Respondent no. 9, KNU political sector working committee delegate, interview with author no. 2, Pa-an, 12 March 2020.

71 Respondent no. 2.

72 Respondent no. 3. Also see Nyi Nyi Kyaw, ‘Democracy first, federalism next? The constitutional reform process in Myanmar’, Perspectives, November 2019, p. 4.

73 Ibid., pp. 7–8.

74 Respondent no. 8, conversation with author no. 1, Yangon, 2 February 2020.

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76 Concerns expressed by delegates at the second Twenty First Century Panglong Conference at KNU headquarters on the Thailand–Burma border, 15–17 June 2017. Respondent no. 3.

77 Speech delivered by the commander-in-chief of the Defence Services to mark the fourth anniversary of the NCA: Global New Light of Myanmar, 29 October 2019.

78 Ibid. Italics ours.

79 Latt et al., ‘From ceasefire to dialogue’, pp. 231–235.

80 Respondent no. 3.

81 Myoe, ‘Partnership in politics’, pp. 211–212.

82 Interview with author no. 2. Also see Harrisson, Annika Phol and Kyed, Helene, ‘Ceasefire state-making and justice provision by ethnic armed groups in Southeast Myanmar’, Sojourn: Journal of Social Issues in Southeast Asia, vol. 34, no. 2, 2019, pp. 290–326CrossRefGoogle Scholar.

83 Respondent no. 6, interview with author no. 1, Lowell, MA, 7 April 2020.

84 Respondent no. 13, member representing political parties in Mon state JMC, interview with author no. 2, Mawlamyein, 6 March 2020.

85 Respondents no. 6 and 8. Nyein, ‘Analysis’. Lawi Weng, ‘TNLA accuses military of helping RCSS gain bases in N. Shan’, The Irrawaddy, 29 March 2019. ‘Concerns grow over conflict between KNU and Mon armies in Ye township’, Karen News, 28CSBOLDSTART CSBOLDENDFebruary 2018, available at http://karennews.org/2018/02/concerns-grow-over-conflict-between-knu-and-mon-armies-in-ye-township/, [accessed 20 November 2020].

86 Respondent no. 10, conversation with author no. 1, Pa-an, 7 January 2018. Respondent no. 14, representative of political parties in JMC, Karen state, interview with author no. 2, Pa-an, 6 March 2020.

87 Respondent no. 15, CSO representative on Bago JMC, interview with author no. 2, Kyaukkyi, 6 March 2020.

88 Respondent no. 12, member of Land and Environment Committee, interview with author no. 2, Pa-an, 12 March 2020.

89 Joliffe, Ethnic conflict.

90 Respondent no. 2.

91 Respondent no. 8.

92 Respondent no. 4.

93 Respondent no. 3.

94 Respondent no. 1.

95 Authors’ conversations with KNU and government negotiators. Also see Nyein Nyein, ‘Shan national dialogue in doubt after public consultation cancelled’, The Irrawaddy, 5 January 2018. Lawi Weng, ‘Peace process entirely in military's hands, Karen group says’, The Irrawaddy, 6 June 2018.

96 Respondent no. 4. Also see commander-in-chief's speech at the NCA's fourth anniversary.

97 Ibid.

98 Respondent no. 14.

99 Respondent no. 7, a researcher from the Enlighten Myanmar Research Foundation (EMRef) who studies the peace process in Myanmar.

100 Respondent no. 3.

101 Respondents no. 8 and 10.

102 Respondent no. 14.

103 Conversation with author no. 1, Yangon, 2 February 2020.

104 Global New Light of Myanmar, 29 October 2019.

105 Respondent no. 2.

106 Respondents no. 7 and 4.

107 Thu Thu Aung, ‘Shan legislature favors “terrorist” designation for Northern Alliance’, Myanmar Times, 8 December 2016. Prashanth Parameswaran, ‘What does Myanmar's new Arakan Army terrorist designation mean for the country's security’, The Diplomat, 25 March 2020.

108 Respondent no. 1.

109 Respondent no. 6.

110 Respondent no. 3.

111 Respondent no. 8.

112 Respondent no. 8.

113 Respondents no. 1, 3, 4, 6, and 7.

114 Respondent no. 1.

115 Nyein Nyein, ‘Myanmar peace conference ends with participants praising “meaningful” principles, post-election plan’, Irrawaddy, 21 August 2020.

116 See Frontier Myanmar's special coverage: ‘How the NLD did it again’, vol. 6, no. 14, 21 November 2020.

117 Respondents no. 1, 2, and 3.

118 Ibid.

119 Respondent no. 1.

120 Respondent no. 7.