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Far Field Flow Uncertainty Analysis for the Palo Duro Basin

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  25 February 2011

Joseph L. Devary ,
Battelle Battelle ,
William V. HARPER ,
Onwi ONWI ,
Jon F. SYKES  and
John L. WILSON
Joseph L. Devary
Affiliation:
Pacific Northwest Laboratories, Battelle Boulevard,PO Box 999, Richland, Washington, USA,
Battelle Battelle
Affiliation:
Pacific Northwest Laboratories, Battelle Boulevard,PO Box 999, Richland, Washington, USA,
William V. HARPER
Affiliation:
Battelle Project Management Division, 505 King Avenue, Columbus, Ohio, USA,
Onwi ONWI
Affiliation:
Battelle Project Management Division, 505 King Avenue, Columbus, Ohio, USA,
Jon F. SYKES
Affiliation:
Civil Engineering Department, University of Waterloo, CANADA,
John L. WILSON
Affiliation:
INTERA Environmental Consultants, Inc., 11999 Katy Freeway, Suite 610, Houston, Texas, USA
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Abstract

In order to license an underground nuclear waste repository DOE must demonstrate its safety. Sensitivity and uncertainty analyses play a critical role in both performance assessment and licensing. This paper focuses on the application of a variety of techniques to arrive at a comprehensive sensitivity and uncertainty analysis for performance measures relating to ground-water travel in the Wolfcamp aquifer of the Palo Duro Basin (see Figure 1). Scenario analysis is not examined; rather, analysis is based on well understood models for flow in porous media. Both Monte Carlo and first order second moment techniques are utilized to obtain output uncertainties. The approach results in a logical, comprehensive analysis that blends both deterministic and statistical methods. It provides for an extensive screening of the parameters, accounts for parameter and spatial correlations, and quantifies uncertainties for the major performance measures in ground-water travel. The results are useful for both licensing and the identification of additional data needs.

Type
Research Article
Information
MRS Online Proceedings Library (OPL) , Volume 26: Symposium D – Scientific Basis for Nuclear Waste Management VII , 1983 , 397
Copyright
Copyright © Materials Research Society 1984

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References

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