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TRACKING THE MUTANT: FORECASTING AND NOWCASTING COVID-19 IN THE UK IN 2021

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  23 June 2021

Andrew Harvey
Affiliation:
Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, United Kingdom
Paul Kattuman*
Affiliation:
Cambridge Judge Business School, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, United Kingdom
Craig Thamotheram
Affiliation:
National Institute of Economic and Social Research, London, United Kingdom
*
*Corresponding author. Email: p.kattuman@jbs.cam.ac.uk

Abstract

A new class of time series models is used to track the progress of the COVID-19 epidemic in the UK in early 2021. Models are fitted to England and the regions, as well as to the UK as a whole. The growth rate of the daily number of cases and the instantaneous reproduction number are computed regularly and compared with those produced by SAGE. The results from figures published each day are compared with results based on figures by specimen date, which may be more accurate but are subject to substantial revisions. It is then shown how data from the two different sources can be combined in bivariate models.

Type
Research Article
Copyright
© National Institute Economic Review, 2021

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