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Business Cycles and Turning Points: A Survey of Statistical Techniques

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  26 March 2020

Michael Massmann ,
James Mitchell  and
Martin Weale
Michael Massmann
Affiliation:
National Institute of Economic and Social Research
James Mitchell*
Affiliation:
National Institute of Economic and Social Research
Martin Weale*
Affiliation:
National Institute of Economic and Social Research
*
e-mail: j.mitchell@niesr.ac.uk or mweale@niesr.ac.uk
e-mail: j.mitchell@niesr.ac.uk or mweale@niesr.ac.uk
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Abstract

The business cycle has an importance in the popular debate which can tend to run ahead of the problems in measuring it. This paper provides a survey of the main statistical techniques that are used to measure the cycle. An application to the UK illustrates that the choice of what measure, or measures, to use is more than a dry academic issue. Inference about the business cycle is potentially sensitive to measurement. Fortunately, however, there is an element of consensus.

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Type
Articles
Information
National Institute Economic Review , Volume 183 , January 2003 , pp. 90 - 106
Copyright
Copyright © 2003 National Institute of Economic and Social Research

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Footnotes

∗

The authors are grateful to EUROSTAT for supporting this work and for giving permission to publish the paper.

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