Skip to main content Accessibility help
×
Home

Accelerating geothermal development with a play-based portfolio approach

  • Jan Diederik van Wees (a1) (a2), Hans Veldkamp (a1), Logan Brunner (a1), Mark Vrijlandt (a1), Sander de Jong (a3), Nora Heijnen (a3), Corné van Langen (a3) and Joris Peijster (a4)...

Abstract

Over the past decade in the Netherlands, most operators have only developed a single doublet. The learning effect from these single events is suboptimal, and operators have only been capable of developing doublets in areas with relatively low exploration risk. This ‘stand-alone’ approach can be significantly improved by a collective approach to derisk regions with similar subsurface characteristics. Such a play-based portfolio approach, which is common in the oil and gas industry, can help to accelerate the development of the geothermal industry through unlocking resource potential in areas marked by high upfront geological risk, effectively helping reduce costs for the development. The basis of the methodology is to deploy new information to the play portfolio by trading off with the risk of the first wells, resulting in a strong geological risk reduction.

The added value of the portfolio approach is demonstrated for the Netherlands in this paper through a comparison with a ‘stand-alone’ development. In the stand-alone approach, each new project will be equally risky, and therefore relatively unprofitable. In the case of a portfolio approach, all experience about the play is used optimally for derisking. In case of success, subsequent projects will have a higher chance of being successful, due to the experience gained in previous projects. Even if a project fails, this may help in increasing the probability of success for subsequent projects. For plays that are initially considered too risky for the market to start developing, the value of information (VoI) of a play-based portfolio approach will help by derisking the play to such an extent that it becomes attractive for the market to develop, even at high initial risk. It can be demonstrated for several geothermal plays in the Netherlands that by adopting the portfolio approach, the probability of a play being developed becomes higher, the number of successfully developed projects increases and the average profitability of the project will also be higher. Five more advantages are: (1) continuous improvement by integrated project development, (2) cost reduction through synergy, efficiency and standardisation, (3) optimisation of the surface heat demand and infrastructure, (4) the possibility of structural research and development (R&D) and innovation, and (5) financing advantages. The advantages reinforce each other.

A preliminary estimate of the geothermal potential of the Netherlands adopting the portfolio approach is between 90 and 275 Petajoules (PJ). For about 350 doublets being developed, producing about 70 PJ, the value of the advantage of the play-based portfolio approach is €2 billion for the three main plays: Rotliegend, Triassic and Jurassic/Cretaceous. The learning effects of synergy, efficiency and standardisation are expected to be significant.

  • View HTML
    • Send article to Kindle

      To send this article to your Kindle, first ensure no-reply@cambridge.org is added to your Approved Personal Document E-mail List under your Personal Document Settings on the Manage Your Content and Devices page of your Amazon account. Then enter the ‘name’ part of your Kindle email address below. Find out more about sending to your Kindle. Find out more about sending to your Kindle.

      Note you can select to send to either the @free.kindle.com or @kindle.com variations. ‘@free.kindle.com’ emails are free but can only be sent to your device when it is connected to wi-fi. ‘@kindle.com’ emails can be delivered even when you are not connected to wi-fi, but note that service fees apply.

      Find out more about the Kindle Personal Document Service.

      Accelerating geothermal development with a play-based portfolio approach
      Available formats
      ×

      Send article to Dropbox

      To send this article to your Dropbox account, please select one or more formats and confirm that you agree to abide by our usage policies. If this is the first time you use this feature, you will be asked to authorise Cambridge Core to connect with your <service> account. Find out more about sending content to Dropbox.

      Accelerating geothermal development with a play-based portfolio approach
      Available formats
      ×

      Send article to Google Drive

      To send this article to your Google Drive account, please select one or more formats and confirm that you agree to abide by our usage policies. If this is the first time you use this feature, you will be asked to authorise Cambridge Core to connect with your <service> account. Find out more about sending content to Google Drive.

      Accelerating geothermal development with a play-based portfolio approach
      Available formats
      ×

Copyright

This is an Open Access article, distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution licence (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted re-use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

Corresponding author

Author for correspondence: Jan Diederik Van Wees, Email: Jan_Diederik.vanWees@tno.nl

References

Hide All
Batini, F. & Van Wees, J.D. Performance assessment for green field geothermal development – a holistic approach. 1st Sustainable Earth Sciences Conference & Exhibition, 8–10 November 2011, Valencia, Spain. Conference proceedings.
Begg, S.H., Bratvold, R.B. & Campbell, J.M., 2002. The value of flexibility in managing uncertainty in oil and gas investments. SPE 77586. Society of Petroleum Engineers (SPE) Annual Technical Conference and Exhibition, 29 September–2 October 2002, San Antonio, Texas, USA. Conference proceedings.
Boxem, T., Veldkamp, J.G. & van Wees, J., 2016. Ultra-diepe geothermie: overzicht, inzicht \& to-do ondergrond. TNO Report R10803. TNO (Utrecht).
Eneco, Ennatuurlijk, Eteck, HVC, NUON & SVP, 2017. Nationaal Warmtenet Trendrapport 2017.
Frick, S., Van Wees, J.D., Kaltschmitt, M. & Schröder, G., 2010. Economic performance and environmental assessment. In: Huenges, E. & Ledru, P. (eds): Geothermal energy systems: exploration, development, and utilization. Wiley-VCH (Berlin): 373421.
Heijnen, L., Jaarsma, B., Veldkamp, H. & Schavemaker, Y., 2019. Ultra-deep geothermal program in the Netherlands. European Geothermal Congress, 11–14 June 2019, The Hague, the Netherlands. 382. Conference proceedings.
Kombrink, H., Doornenbal, J., Duin, E., Den Dulk, M., ten Veen, J. & Witmans, N., 2012. New insights into the geological structure of the Netherlands; results of a detailed mapping project. Netherlands Journal of Geosciences/Geologie en Mijnbouw 91(4): 419446.
Kombrink, H., Leever, K.A., Van Wees, J.D., Van Bergen, F., David, P. & Wong, T.E., 2008. Late Carboniferous foreland basin formation and Early Carboniferous stretching in Northwestern Europe: inferences from quantitative subsidence analyses in the Netherlands. Basin Research 20(3): 377395.
Kramers, L., Van Wees, J.D., Pluymaekers, M.P.D., Kronimus, A. & Boxem, T., 2012. Direct heat resource assessment and subsurface information systems for geothermal aquifers; the Dutch perspective. Netherlands Journal of Geosciences/Geologie en Mijnbouw 91(4): 637649.
Ministry of Economic Affairs and Climate Policy, 2018. Natural resources and geothermal energy in the Netherlands. Annual review 2017. Ministry of Economic Affairs and Climate Policy (The Hague).
Mozafari, M., Gutteridge, P., Riva, A., Geel, K., Garland, J. & Dewit, J., 2019. Facies analysis and diagenetic evolution of the Dinantian carbonates in the Dutch subsurface. SCAN report. Energie Beheer Nederland B.V. (EBN) (Utrecht). https://www.nlog.nl/sites/default/files/2019-09/scan_dinantian_facies_analysis_and_diagenetic_evolution_of_the_dinantian_carbonates_in_the_dutch_subsurface.pdf
Peijster, J., Koekkoek, H., Van Ee, R., Van Og, G., Van Leeuwen, W., Den Otter, Y., Klapwijk, M., Pikaar, E., Beekman, F. & Van Wees, J., 2019. LEAN: low cost exploration and derisking of geothermal plays in white spot areas: the Rotliegend demonstrator. European Geothermal Congress, 11–14 June 2019, The Hague, the Netherlands. 346. Conference proceedings.
Planbureau voor de Leefomgeving (PBL), 2017. Toekomstbeeld klimaatneutrale warmtenetten in Nederland – Beleidsstudie. Report No. PBL 1926. PBL (The Hague).
Pluymaekers, M., Kramers, L., Van Wees, J.D., Kronimus, A., Nelskamp, S., Boxem, T. & Bonté, D., 2012. Reservoir characterisation of aquifers for direct heat production: methodology and screening of the potential reservoirs for the Netherlands. Netherlands Journal of Geosciences/Geologie en Mijnbouw 91(4): 621636.
Reijmer, J.J.G., ten Veen, J.H., Jaarsma, B. & Boots, R., 2017. Seismic stratigraphy of Dinantian carbonates in the southern Netherlands and northern Belgium. Netherlands Journal of Geosciences/Geologie en Mijnbouw 96(4): 353379.
Stichting Platform Geothermie, Dutch Association of Geothermal Operators (DAGO), Stichting Warmtenetwerk & Energie Beheer Nederland B.V. (EBN), 2018. Masterplan Aardwarmte in Nederland. Available at https://kennisbank.ebn.nl/het-masterplan-aardwarmte-nederland/
Trainor, W.J., Michael Hoversten, G., Ramirez, A., Roberts, J., Juliusson, E., Key, K. & Mellors, R., 2014. The value of spatial information for determining well placement: a geothermal example. Geophysics 79(5): W27W41.
Van Wees, J.D., Bonté, D., Bertani, R. & Genter, A., 2010. Using decision support models to analyse the performance of EGS Systems. World Geothermal Congress, 25–30 April 2010, Bali, Indonesia. Conference proceedings.
Van Wees, J.D., Kramers, L., Mijnlieff, H., De Jong, S. & Scheffers, B. Geothermal and hydrocarbon exploration: the double play synergy. World Geothermal Congress, 19–25 April 2015, Melbourne, Australia. Conference proceedings.
Van Wees, J.D., Kronimus, A., Van Putten, M., Pluymaekers, M., Mijnlieff, H., Van Hooff, P., Obdam, A. & Kramers, L., 2012. Geothermal aquifer performance assessment for direct heat production: methodology and application to Rotliegend aquifers. Netherlands Journal of Geosciences/Geologie en Mijnbouw 91(4): 651665.
Van Wees, J.D., Pluymaekers, M., Van Wees, J.D., Van Gessel, S. & Veldkamp, J.G., 2017. Unlocking geothermal energy from mature oil and gas basins: a success story from the Netherlands. In: Bertani, R. (ed.): Perspectives for Geothermal Energy in Europe. World Scientific Europe Ltd (Hackensack, NJ): 187214.
Veldkamp, J.G., Pluymaekers, M., Vandeweijer, V. & Van Wees, J., 2016. High temperature storage in the Dutch subsurface: critical factors and economic feasibility. European Geothermal Congress, 19–23 September 2016, Strasbourg, France. 231. Conference proceedings.
Veldkamp, J.G., van Wees, J.D.A.M., Brunner, L.G., de Jong, A.P.A.M., Heijnen, L.J. & van Langen, C., 2018. Play-based portfoliobenadering, eerste inzicht in zes voordelen voor veilig en verantwoord, kosteneffectief versnellen van geothermie. TNO (Utrecht).
Vrijlandt, M., Struijk, E.L.M., Brunner, L.H., Veldkamp, J.G., Witmans, N., Maljers, D. & Van Wees, J., 2019. ThermoGIS update: a renewed view on geothermal potential in the Netherlands. European Geothermal Congress, 11–14 June 2019, The Hague, the Netherlands. 226. Conference proceedings.
Wesselink, M., Liu, W., Koornneef, J. & van den Broek, M., 2018. Conceptual market potential framework of high temperature aquifer thermal energy storage: a case study in the Netherlands. Energy 147: 477489.
Wong, T.E., Batjes, D.A.J. & de Jager, J., 2007. Geology of the Netherlands. Royal Netherlands Academy of Arts and Sciences (Amsterdam).

Keywords

Accelerating geothermal development with a play-based portfolio approach

  • Jan Diederik van Wees (a1) (a2), Hans Veldkamp (a1), Logan Brunner (a1), Mark Vrijlandt (a1), Sander de Jong (a3), Nora Heijnen (a3), Corné van Langen (a3) and Joris Peijster (a4)...

Metrics

Full text views

Total number of HTML views: 0
Total number of PDF views: 0 *
Loading metrics...

Abstract views

Total abstract views: 0 *
Loading metrics...

* Views captured on Cambridge Core between <date>. This data will be updated every 24 hours.

Usage data cannot currently be displayed.