Skip to main content Accessibility help

Impact of misinformation in temporal network epidemiology

  • Petter Holme (a1) and Luis E. C. Rocha (a2)


We investigate the impact of misinformation about the contact structure on the ability to predict disease outbreaks. We base our study on 31 empirical temporal networks and tune the frequencies in errors in the node identities or time stamps of contacts. We find that for both these spreading scenarios, the maximal misprediction of both the outbreak size and time to extinction follows an stretched exponential convergence as a function of the error frequency. We furthermore determine the temporal-network structural factors influencing the parameters of this convergence.


Corresponding author

*Corresponding author. Email:


Hide All
Adams, J., & Moody, J. (2007). To tell the truth: Measuring concordance in multiply reported network data. Social Networks, 29(1), 4458.
Anderson, R. M., & May, R. M. (1992). Infectious diseases in humans. Oxford: Oxford University Press.
Bajardi, P., Barrat, A., Natale, F., Savini, L., & Colizza, V. (2011). Dynamical patterns of cattle trade movements. PLOS One, 6, e19869.
Bansal, S., Read, J., Pourbohloul, B., & Meyers, L. A. (2010). The dynamic nature of contact networks in infectious disease epidemiology. Journal of Biological Dynamics, 4, 478489.
Barabási, A.-L. (2015). Network science. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.
Bigwood, G., Henderson, T., Rehunathan, D., Bateman, M., & Bhatti, S. (2011). CRAWDAD dataset st_andrews/sassy (v. 2011-06-03). Retrieved from
Colman, E., Spies, K., & Bansal, S. (2018). The reachability of contagion in temporal contact networks: How disease latency can exploit the rhythm of human behavior. BMC Infectious Diseases, 18(1), 219.
Eagle, N., & Pentland, A. S. (2006). Reality mining: Sensing complex social systems. Personal and Ubiquitous Computing, 10(4), 255268.
Ebel, H., Mielsch, L.-I., & Bornholdt, S. (2002). Scale-free topology of e-mail networks. Physical Review E, 66, 035103.
Eckmann, J.-P., Moses, E., & Sergi, D. (2004). Entropy of dialogues creates coherent structures in e-mail traffic. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 101, 1433314337.
Génois, M., Vestergaard, C. L., Fournet, J., Panisson, A., Bonmarin, I., & Barrat, A. (2015). Data on face-to-face contacts in an office building suggest a low-cost vaccination strategy based on community linkers. Network Science, 3(9), 326347.
Gernat, T., Rao, V. D., Middendorf, M., Dankowicz, H., Goldenfeld, N., & Robinson, G. E. (2018). Automated monitoring of behavior reveals bursty interaction patterns and rapid spreading dynamics in honeybee social networks. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 115(7), 14331438.
Giesecke, J. (2002). Modern infectious disease epidemiology (2nd ed.). London: Arnold.
Goh, K.-I., & Barabási, A.-L. (2008). Burstiness and memory in complex systems. EPL (Europhysics Letters), 81(4), 48002.
Hethcote, H. W. (2000). The mathematics of infectious diseases. SIAM Review, 32(4), 599653.
Holme, P. (2005). Network reachability of real-world contact sequences. Physical Review E, 71(4), 046119.
Holme, P. (2013a). Epidemiologically optimal static networks from temporal network data. PLOS Computational Biology, 9, e1003142.
van den Broeck, W., Quaggiotto, M., Isella, L., Barrat, A., & Cattuto, C. (2012). The making of sixty-nine days of close encounters at The Science Gallery. Leonardo, 45, 201202.
Vanhems, P., Barrat, A., Cattuto, C., Pinton, J.-F., Khanafer, N., Régis, C., … Voirin, N. (2013). Estimating potential infection transmission routes in hospital wards using wearable proximity sensors. PLOS One, 8, e73970.
Viswanath, B., Mislove, A., Cha, M., & Gummadi, K. P. (2009). On the evolution of user interaction in Facebook. Proceedings of the 2nd ACM workshop on online social networks. WOSN ‘09 (pp. 3742). New York, NY: ACM.
Volz, E. M., Miller, J. C., Galvani, A., & Ancel Meyers, L. (2011). Effects of heterogeneous and clustered contact patterns on infectious disease dynamics. PLOS Computational Biology, 7(6), 113.
Zhang, Y.-Q., Li, X., Xu, J., & Vasilakos, A. (2015). Human interactive patterns in temporal networks. IEEE Transactions on Systems, Man, and Cybernetics, 45(2), 214222.


Related content

Powered by UNSILO

Impact of misinformation in temporal network epidemiology

  • Petter Holme (a1) and Luis E. C. Rocha (a2)


Altmetric attention score

Full text views

Total number of HTML views: 0
Total number of PDF views: 0 *
Loading metrics...

Abstract views

Total abstract views: 0 *
Loading metrics...

* Views captured on Cambridge Core between <date>. This data will be updated every 24 hours.

Usage data cannot currently be displayed.