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Expert Judgment versus Statistical Models: Explanation versus Prediction

  • Gregory A. Caldeira (a1)

One of my favorite political scientists (and mentors in graduate school) defined a great idea as one he would have liked to have had himself. The Supreme Court Forecasting Project is a great idea, one I wish I had hatched. It is such a good idea that it is a little surprising no one had attempted it earlier. I commend this team and urge them, as I shall say in more detail later, to continue, expand, and perhaps redirect this undertaking. That this team combines legal academics and political scientists is a happy sign of the more general recognition in both disciplines of the great things we have to offer each other.Gregory A. Caldeira was Jack N. Pritzker Distinguished Visiting Professor of Law at Northwestern University Law School when he wrote this commentary.

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