Skip to main content Accessibility help
×
×
Home

Is There a Trump Effect? An Experiment on Political Polarization and Audience Costs

  • Miles M. Evers, Aleksandr Fisher and Steven D. Schaaf
Abstract

Does President Trump face domestic costs for foreign policy inconsistency? Will co-partisans and opposition-partisans equally punish Donald Trump for issuing flippant international threats and backing down? While the president said he could “stand in the middle of Fifth Avenue and shoot somebody” without losing voters, the literature consistently shows that individuals, regardless of partisanship, disapprove of leaders who jeopardize the country’s reputation for credibility and resolve. Given the atypical nature of the Trump presidency, and the severe partisan polarization surrounding it, we investigate whether the logic of audience costs still applies in the Trump era. Using a unique experiment fielded during the 2016 presidential transition, we show that Republicans and Democrats impose equal audience costs on President Trump. And by varying the leader’s identity, between Donald Trump, Barack Obama, and “The President,” we demonstrate that the public adheres to a non-partisan logic in punishing leaders who renege on threats. Yet we also find Presidents Trump and Obama can reduce the magnitude of audience costs by justifying backing down as being “in America’s interest.” Even Democrats, despite their doubts of Donald Trump’s credibility, accept such justifications. Our findings encourage further exploration of partisan cues, leader-level attributes, and leader-level reputations.

  • View HTML
    • Send article to Kindle

      To send this article to your Kindle, first ensure no-reply@cambridge.org is added to your Approved Personal Document E-mail List under your Personal Document Settings on the Manage Your Content and Devices page of your Amazon account. Then enter the ‘name’ part of your Kindle email address below. Find out more about sending to your Kindle. Find out more about sending to your Kindle.

      Note you can select to send to either the @free.kindle.com or @kindle.com variations. ‘@free.kindle.com’ emails are free but can only be sent to your device when it is connected to wi-fi. ‘@kindle.com’ emails can be delivered even when you are not connected to wi-fi, but note that service fees apply.

      Find out more about the Kindle Personal Document Service.

      Is There a Trump Effect? An Experiment on Political Polarization and Audience Costs
      Available formats
      ×
      Send article to Dropbox

      To send this article to your Dropbox account, please select one or more formats and confirm that you agree to abide by our usage policies. If this is the first time you use this feature, you will be asked to authorise Cambridge Core to connect with your <service> account. Find out more about sending content to Dropbox.

      Is There a Trump Effect? An Experiment on Political Polarization and Audience Costs
      Available formats
      ×
      Send article to Google Drive

      To send this article to your Google Drive account, please select one or more formats and confirm that you agree to abide by our usage policies. If this is the first time you use this feature, you will be asked to authorise Cambridge Core to connect with your <service> account. Find out more about sending content to Google Drive.

      Is There a Trump Effect? An Experiment on Political Polarization and Audience Costs
      Available formats
      ×
Copyright
Footnotes
Hide All

A list of permanent links to Supplemental Materials provided by the authors precedes the References section.

They are especially grateful for the comments, criticisms, and support of John Sides, Rachel Stein, Eric Grynaviski, Yonatan Lupu, Elizabeth Saunders, Joshua Kertzer, Bill Pickens, as well as four anonymous reviewers and the editors of Perspectives on Politics.

Footnotes
References
Hide All
Abramowitz, Alan I. and Webster., Steven 2016. “The Rise of Negative Partisanship and the Nationalization of US Elections in the 21st Century.” Electoral Studies 41: 1222.10.1016/j.electstud.2015.11.001
Agiesta, Jennifer. 2017. “CNN Poll: One Year Later: Less Confidence, Less Tryst in President Trump.” CNN, November 8. Retrieved July 10, 2018 (https://www.cnn.com/2017/11/08/politics/cnn-poll-trump-one-year-later/index.html).
Arceneaux, Kevin. 2008. “Can Partisan Cues Diminish Democratic Accountability?Political Behavior 30(2): 139-60.
Bafumi, Joseph and Parent, Joseph M.. 2012. “International Polarity and America’s Polarization.” International Politics 49(1): 135.
Baker, Peter and Sang-Hun, Chloe. 2017. “Trump Threatens ‘Fire and Fury’ Against North Korea and It Endangers U.S.” New York Times, August 8. Retrieved July 10, 2018 (https://www.nytimes.com/2017/08/08/world/asia/north-korea-un-sanctions-nuclear-missile-united-nations.html).
Baum, Matthew. 2004. “Going Private: Public Opinion, Presidential Rhetoric, and the Domestic Politics of Audience Costs in U.S. Foreign Policy Crises.” Journal of Conflict Resolution 48(5): 603–31.
Baum, Matthew A. and Groeling., Tim 2010. “Reality Asserts Itself: Public Opinion on Iraq and the Elasticity of Reality.” International Organization 64(3): 443–79.
Baum, Matthew A. and Groeling., Tim 2010. “Reality Asserts Itself: Public Opinion on Iraq and the Elasticity of Reality.” International Organization 64(3): 443–79.
Baum, Matthew A. and Potter, Philip B. K.. 2008. “The Relationships between Mass Media, Public Opinion, and Foreign Policy.” Annual Review of Political Science 11: 3965.10.1146/annurev.polisci.11.060406.214132
Baum, Matthew A. and Groeling., Tim 2015. War and Democratic Constraint: How the Public Influences Foreign Policy. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.
Berinsky, Adam J. 2007. “Assuming the Costs of War: Events, Elites, and American Public Support for Military Conflict.” Journal of Politics 69(4): 975–97.
Berinsky, Adam J. 2009. In Time of War: Understanding American Public Opinion from World War II to Iraq. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.10.7208/chicago/9780226043463.001.0001
Boudreau, Cheryl and MacKenzie, Scott. 2014. “Informing the Electorate? How Party Cues and Policy Information Affect Public Opinion About Initiatives.” American Journal of Political Science 58(1): 4862.
Brody, Richard A. 1991. Assessing the President: The Media, Elite Opinion, and Public Support. Stanford, CA: Stanford University Press.
Brutger, Ryan and Kertzer, Joshua D.. 2018. “A Dispositional Theory of Reputation Costs.” International Organization 72(3): 132.10.1017/S0020818318000188
Buhrmester, Michael, Kwang, Tracy, and Gosling, Samuel D.. 2011. “Amazon’s Mechanical Turk: A New Source of Inexpensive, Yet High-Quality, Data?Perspectives on Psychological Science 6(1): 35.
Bueno de Mesquita, Bruce, Morrow, James D., Siverson, Randolph M., and Smith., Alastair 1999. “An Institutional Explanation of the Democratic Peace.” American Political Science Review 93(4): 791807.
Cameron, Charles M. 2002. “Studying the Polarized Presidency.” Presidential Studies Quarterly 32(4): 647– 63.
Chaudoin, Stephen, Milner, Helen V., and Tingley, Dustin H.. 2010. “The Center Still Holds: Liberal Internationalism Survives.” International Security 35(1): 7594.
Chapman, Terrence L. and Reiter., Dan 2004. “The United Nations Security Council and the Rally ’round the Flag Effect.” Journal of Conflict Resolution 48(6): 886909.10.1177/0022002704269353
Chen, Ted Hsuan Yun. 2016. “Measuring Audience Cost: An Experimental Design that Recovers Preferences for Consistency with Less Confounding.” Prepared for NYU CESS 9th Annual Experimental Political Science Conference, February 19–20 (https://wp.nyu.edu/cesspolicon2016/wp-content/uploads/sites/3319/2016/02/Chen_Measuring-Audience-Cost_1600212NYUCESS.pdf).
Chiozza, Giacomo. 2015. “Presidents on the Cycle: Elections, Audience Costs, and Coercive Diplomacy, Presidents on the Cycle: Elections, Audience Costs, and Coercive Diplomacy.” Conflict Management and Peace Science 34(1): 326.
Chiozza, Giacomo and Goemans, H. E.. 2011. Leaders and International Conflict. New York: Cambridge University Press.
Christenson, Dino P. and Kriner, Douglas L.. 2017. “Constitutional Qualms or Politics as Usual? The Factors Shaping Public Support for Unilateral Action.” American Journal of Political Science 61(2): 335–49.
Clifford, Scott, Jewell, Ryan M, and Waggoner, Philip D.. 2015. “Are Samples Drawn from Mechanical Turk Valid for Research on Political Ideology?Research & Politics 2(4): 19.
Cohen, Geoffrey L. 2003. “Party over Policy: The Dominating Impact of Group Influence on Political Beliefs.” Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 85(5): 808–22.
Colaresi, Michael. 2007. “The Benefit of the Doubt: Testing an Informational Theory of the Rally Effect.” International Organization 61(1): 99143.
Cook, Alexandra C., Hill, Nathan J., Trichka, Mary I., Hwang, Grace J., and Sommers, Paul M.. 2017. “Who Voted for Trump in 2016?Open Journal of Social Sciences 5(7): 199210.
Croco, Sarah E. 2011. “The Decider’s Dilemma: Leader Culpability, War Outcomes, and Domestic Punishment.” American Political Science Review 105(3): 457–77.
Croco, E. Sarah and McDonald, Jared A.. 2017. “Trump’s Supporters Don’t Care about His Flip-Flops on Syria. We Checked.” Washington Post. Retrieved July 10, 2018 (https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2017/05/03/trumps-supporters-dont-care-about-his-policy-reversal-on-syria-we-checked/?utm_term=.9b6b47be4029).
Dafoe, Allen, Renshon, Jonathon, and Huth, Paul. 2014. “Reputation and Status as Motives for War.” Annual Review of Political Science, 17: 371–93.
Dafoe, Allan, Zhang, Baobao, and Caughey, Devin. 2018. “Information Equivalence in Survey Experiments.” Unpublished manuscript. Retrieved July 10, 2018 (http://www.allandafoe.com/ie).
Davies, Graeme A. M. and Johns., Robert 2013. “Audience Costs among the British Public: The Impact of Escalation, Crisis Type, and Prime Ministerial Rhetoric.” International Studies Quarterly 57(4): 725–37.
de la Torre, Carlos. 2017. “Trump’s Populism: Lessons from Latin America.” Postcolonial Studies 20(2): 187-98.
Diamond, Jeremy. 2016. “Trump: I could ’Shoot Somebody and I Wouldn’t Lose Voters’” CNN Politics. Retrieved March 1, 2018 (https://www.cnn.com/2016/01/23/politics/donald-trump-shoot-somebody-support/index.html).
Downie, James. 2017. “Dear Democrats: Stop Rehabilitating George W. Bush.” Washington Post. Retrieved March 1, 2018 (https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/post-partisan/wp/2017/10/26/dear-democrats-stop-rehabilitating-george-w-bush/?utm_term=.998324d1b23a).
Downs, Anthony. 1957. “An Economic Theory of Political Action in a Democracy.” Journal of Political Economy 65(2): 135–50.
Drezner, Daniel. 2018. “The Strange Thing about Polarization and Foreign Policy.Washington Post. Retrieved June 14, 2018 (https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/posteverything/wp/2018/04/12/the-stranger-things-about-polarization-and-foreign-policy/?utm_term=.d82aa9d0810a).
Druckman, James N., Peterson, Erik, and Slothuus, Rune. 2013. “How Elite Partisan Polarization Affects Public Opinion Formation.” American Political Science Review 107(1): 5779.10.1017/S0003055412000500
Eichenberg, Richard C. 2005. “Victory Has Many Friends: US Public Opinion and the Use of Military Force, 1981–2005.” International Security 30(1): 140–77.
Farrell, Henry. 2017. “North Korea Just Called Trump’s Bluff. So What Happens Now?Washington Post. Retrieved July 23, 2018 (https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2017/08/08/donald-trump-is-playing-a-dangerous-game-with-north-korea/?utm_term=.f7eae64bcf8b).
Fearon, James D. 1994. “Domestic Political Audiences and the Escalation of International Disputes.” American Political Science Review 88(3): 577–92.
Federico, Christopher M. and Hunt., Corrie V. 2013. “Political Information, Political Involvement, and Reliance on Ideology in Political Evaluation.” Political Behavior 35(1): 89112.10.1007/s11109-011-9184-7
Gartner, Scott Sigmund. 2008. “The Multiple Effects of Casualties on Public Support for War: An Experimental Approach.” American Political Science Review 102(1): 95106.
Gartzke, Erik and Lupu, Yonatan. 2012. “Still Looking for Audience Costs.” Security Studies 21(3): 391–97.
Gaubatz, Kurt Taylor. 1996. “Democratic States and Commitment in International Relations.” International Organization 50(1): 109–39.
Gelpi, Christopher, Feaver, Peter D., and Reifler, Jason. 2009. Paying the Human Costs of War: American Public Opinion and Casualties in Military Conflicts. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.
Gelpi, Christopher and Grieco, Joseph M.. 2015. “Competency Costs in Foreign Affairs: Presidential Performance in International Conflicts and Domestic Legislative Success, 1953–2001.” American Journal of Political Science 59(2): 440–56.10.1111/ajps.12169
Gerber, Alan and Malhotra, Neil. 2008. “Do Statistical Reporting Standards Affect What Is Published? Publication Bias in Two Leading Political Science Journals.” Quarterly Journal of Political Science 3(3): 313–26.
Gowa, Joanne. 1998. “Politics at the Water’s Edge: Parties, Voters, and the use of Force Abroad.” International Organization 52(2): 307–24.
Guisinger, Alexandra and Saunders, Elizabeth N.. 2017. “Mapping the Boundaries of Elite Cues: How Elites Shape Mass Opinion across International Issues.” International Studies Quarterly 61(2): 425–41.
Guisinger, Alexandra and Smith, Alastair. 2002. “Honest Threats: The Interaction of Reputation and Political Institutions in International Crises.” Journal of Conflict Resolution 46(2): 175200.
Haynes, Kyle. 2012. “Lame Ducks and Coercive Diplomacy: Do Executive Term Limits Reduce the Effectiveness of Democratic Threats?Journal of Conflict Resolution 56(5): 771–98.
Herrmann, Richard K., Tetlock, Philip E., and Visser., Penny S. 1999. “Mass Public Decisions on Going to War: A Cognitive-Interactionist Framework.” American Political Science Review 93(3): 553–73.
Hetherington, Marc J. 2001. “Resurgent Mass Partisanship: The Role of Elite Polarization.” American Political Science Review 95(3): 619–31.
Hirschfeld Davis, Julie. 2018. “Trump Drops Push for Immediate Withdrawal of Troops from Syria.” New York Times. Retrieved July 23, 2018 (https://www.nytimes.com/2018/04/04/world/middleeast/trump-syria-troops.html).
Holsti, Ole R. 2004. Public Opinion and American Foreign Policy. Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press.
Horowitz, Michael C., Stam, Allan C., and Ellis, Cali M.. 2015. Why Leaders Fight. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
Hurwitz, Jon and Peffley, Mark. 1987. “How Are Foreign Policy Attitudes Structured? A Hierarchical Model.” American Political Science Review 81(4): 1099–120.
Ikenberry, G. John, Parmar, Inderjeet, and Stokes, Doug. 2018. “Introduction: Ordering the World? Liberal Internationalism in Theory and Practice.” International Affairs 94(1): 15.
Imai, Kosuke, Keele, Luke, Tingley, Dustin, and Yamamoto, Teppei. 2011. “Unpacking the Black Box of Causality: Learning about Causal Mechanisms from Experimental and Observational Studies.” American Political Science Review 105(4): 765–89.
Imai, Kosuke ,and Yamamoto, Teppei. 2013. “Identification and Sensitivity Analysis for Multiple Causal Mechanisms: Revisiting Evidence from Framing Experiments.” Political Analysis 21(2): 141–71.10.1093/pan/mps040
Jacobs, Ben. 2017. “Trump Threatens ’Military Option’ in Venezuela As Crisis Escalates.The Guardian. Retrieved March 1, 2018 (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/aug/11/donald-trump-venezuela-crisis-military-intervention).
Jentleson, Bruce W. 1992. “The Pretty Prudent Public: Post Post-Vietnam American Opinion on the Use of Military Force.” International Studies Quarterly 36(1): 4974.
Jentleson, Bruce W. and Britton, Rebecca L.. 1998. “Still Pretty Prudent: Post-Cold War American Public Opinion on the Use of Military Force.” Journal of Conflict Resolution 42(4): 395417.
Kagan, Donald. 1995. On the Origins of War and the Preservation of Peace. New York: Doubleday.
Kam, Cindy D. 2005. “Who Toes the Party Line? Cues, Values, and Individual Differences.” Political Behavior 27(2): 163–82.10.1007/s11109-005-1764-y
Kertzer, Joshua D., Brooks, Stephen G., and Brooks, Deborah Jordan. 2017. “Do Partisan Types Stop at the Water’s Edge?” Unpublished manuscript. Retrieved July 10, 2018 (http://www.people.fas.harvard.edu/∼jkertzer/Research_files/Against_Type_Web.pdf).
Kertzer, Joshua D. and Brutger, Ryan. 2016. “Decomposing Audience Costs: Bringing the Audience Back into Audience Cost Theory.” American Journal of Political Science 60(1): 234–49.
Kertzer, Joshua D. and Zeitzoff., Thomas 2017. “A Bottom‐Up Theory of Public Opinion about Foreign Policy.” American Journal of Political Science 61(3): 543–58.
Krebs, Ronald R. 2015. Narrative and the Making of US National Security. Cambridge Studies in International Relations 138. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
Kreps, Sarah, Albertson, Bethany, Kushner Gadarian, Shana, Baum, Matthew A., Potter, Philip B. K., Drezner, Daniel W., and Jentleson, Bruce W.. 2017. “Public Opinion and the Trump Administration’s Foreign Policy.” H-Diplo | ISSF. Retrieved March 1, 2018 (http://issforum.org/roundtables/policy/2-1-public-opinion).
Kriner, Douglas and Shen, Francis. 2014. “Responding to War on Capitol Hill: Battlefield Casualties, Congressional Response, and Public Support for the War in Iraq.” American Journal of Political Science 58(1): 157–74.
Kupchan, Charles A. and Trubowitz, Peter L.. 2007. “Dead Center: The Demise of Liberal Internationalism in the United States.” International Security 32(2): 744.
Levay, Kevin. E., Freese, Jeremy, and Druckman, James N.. 2016. “The Demographic and Political Composition of Mechanical Turk Samples.” Sage Open 6(1): 117.
Levendusky, Matthew S. and Horowitz, Michael C.. 2012. “When Backing Down Is the Right Decision: Partisanship, New Information, and Audience Costs.” Journal of Politics 74(2): 323–38.10.1017/S002238161100154X
Levitsky, Steven and Ziblatt, Daniel. 2018. How Democracies Die. New York: Penguin Random House.
Levy, Jack S., McKoy, Michael K., Poast, Paul ,and Wallace, Geoffrey P. R.. 2015. “Backing Out or Backing In? Commitment and Consistency in Audience Costs Theory.” American Journal of Political Science 59(4): 9881001.
Lipson, Charles. 2003. Reliable Partners: How Democracies Have Made a Separate Peace. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.
Lupton, Danielle L. 2018. “Signaling Resolve: Leaders, Reputations, and the Importance of Early Interactions.” International Interactions 44(1): 5987.
McManus, Roseanne W. 2017. “The Impact of Context on the Ability of Leaders to Signal Resolve.” International Interactions 43(3): 453–79.
MacWilliams, Matthew C. 2016. “Who Decides When the Party Doesn’t? Authoritarian Voters and the Rise of Donald Trump.” PS: Political Science & Politics 49(4): 716–21.
Malhotra, Neil and Kuo, Alexander G.. 2008. “Attributing Blame: The Public’s Response to Hurricane Katrina.” Journal of Politics 70(1): 120–35.
Milner, Helen V. and Tingley, Dustin. 2016. Sailing the Water’s Edge: The Domestic Politics of American Foreign Policy. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.
Morse, Julia C. 2016. “Do ‘Red Lines’ Produce Audience Costs? Results from a Survey Experiment on US Policy Toward Syria.” Presented at the Midwest Political Science Association Conference, Chicago, April 16–19 (https://scholar.princeton.edu/sites/default/files/jcmorse/files/syria_spring2016.pdf).
Mueller, John E. 1971. “Trends in Popular Support for the Wars in Korea and Vietnam.” American Political Science Review 65(2): 358–75.
Nexon, Dan, 2018. “Normalizing Trump.” Lawyers, Guns, & Money Blog. Retrieved May 10, 2018 (http://www.lawyersgunsmoneyblog.com/2018/04/normalizing-trump).
Nicholson, Stephan P. 2012. “Polarizing Cues.” American Journal of Political Science 56(1): 5266.
Oliver, J. Eric and Rahn, Wendy M.. 2016. “Rise of the Trumpenvolk: Populism in the 2016 Election.” Annals of the American Academy of Political and Social Science 667(1): 189206.
Ortiz, Erik. 2017. “Trump Reverses Policy on Syrian Airstrikes after Years of Tweeting Disapproval.” NBC News. Retrieved July 23, 2018 (https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/donald-trump/trump-reverses-policy-syrian-airstrikes-after-years-tweeting-disapproval-n743756).
Partell, Peter J. and Palmer., Glenn 1999. “Audience Costs and Interstate Crises: An Empirical Assessment of Fearon’s Model of Dispute Outcomes.” International Studies Quarterly 43(2): 389405.
Potter, Philip B. K. and Baum, Matthew A.. 2013. “Looking for Audience Costs in All the Wrong Places: Electoral Institutions, Media Access, and Democratic Constraint.” Journal of Politics 76(1): 167–81.
Ramzy, Austin. 2018. “Trump Threatens Iran on Twitter Warning of Dire ‘Consequences.’” New York Times. Retrieved July 23, 2018 (https://www.nytimes.com/2018/07/22/world/middleeast/trump-threatens-iran-twitter.html).
Rathbun, Brian C., Kertzer, Joshua D., Reifler, Jason, Goren, Paul, and Scotto, Thomas J.. 2016. “Taking Foreign Policy Personally: Personal Values and Foreign Policy Attitudes.” International Studies Quarterly 60(1): 124–37.
Rauhala, Emily. 2018. “Ending Military Exercises? Trump’s Plan for North Korea Was China’s Plan First.Washington Post. Retrieved July 23, 2018 (https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2018/06/12/ending-military-exercises-trumps-plan-for-north-korea-was-chinas-plan-first/?utm_term=.89ab0d68da9b).
Reiter, Dan and Stam, Allan C.. 2002. Democracies at War. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.
Renshon, Jonathon. Dafoe, Allen, and Huth, Paul. 2018. “Leader Influence and Reputation Formation in World Politics.” American Journal of Political Science 62(2): 325–39.
Reuters. 2017. “Trump Says NATO Not Obsolete, Reversing Campaign Stance.” Reuters. Retrieved July 23, 2018 (https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trump-nato/trump-says-nato-not-obsolete-reversing-campaign-stance-idUSKBN17E2OK).
Roediger, H. L. and DeSoto, K. A.. 2014. “Forgetting the Presidents.” Science 346(6213): 1106–09.
Roese, Neal J. 1997. “Counterfactual Thinking.” Psychological Bulletin 121(1): 133–48.
Rosenau, James. N. 1961. Public Opinion and Foreign Policy: An Operational Formulation. Studies in Political Science PS35. New York: Random House.
Rottinghaus, Brandon and Vaughn, Justin S.. 2018. “Official Results of the 2018 Presidents and Executive Politics Presidential Greatness Survey” American Political Science Association. Retrieved July 10, 2018 (https://sps.boisestate.edu/politicalscience/files/2018/02/Greatness.pdf).
Saunders, Elizabeth N. 2015. “War and the Inner Circle: Democratic Elites and the Politics of Using Force.” Security Studies 24(3): 466501.
Schultz, Kenneth A. 1998. “Domestic Opposition and Signaling in International Crises. American Political Science Review 92(4): 829–44.
Schultz, Kenneth A. 2001. “Looking for Audience Costs.” Journal of Conflict Resolution 45(1): 3260.
Schultz, Kenneth A. 2012. “Why We Needed Audience Costs and What We Need Now.” Security Studies 21(3): 369–75.
Schultz, Kenneth A. 2018. “Perils of Polarization for US Foreign Policy.” Washington Quarterly 40(4): 728.
Slantchev, Branislav. 2006. “Politicians, the Media, and Domestic Audience Costs.” International Studies Quarterly 50(2): 445–77.
Snyder, Jack, Shapiro, Robert Y., and Bloch-Elkon, Yaeli. 2009. “Free Hand Abroad, Divide and Rule at Home.” World Politics 61(1): 155–87.
Stoycheff, Elizabeth and Nisbet, Eric C.. 2016. “Priming the Costs of Conflict? Russian Public Opinion about the 2014 Crimean Conflict.” International Journal of Public Opinion Research 29(4): 657–75.
Tang, Shiping. 2005. “Reputation, Cult of Reputation, and International Conflict.” Security Studies 14(1): 3462.
Tingley, Dustin and Walter, Barbara. 2011. “Reputation Building in International Relations: An Experimental Approach.” International Organization 65: 343–65.
Tomz, Michael. 2007. “Domestic Audience Costs in International Relations: An Experimental Approach.” International Organization 61(4): 821–40.
Tomz, Michael and Weeks, Jessica. 2013. “Public Opinion and the Democratic Peace.” American Political Science Review 107(3): 116.
Walt, Stephen. 2016. “10 Ways to Tell If Your President Is a Dictator.” Foreign Policy. Retrieved July 10, 2018 (https://foreignpolicy.com/2016/11/23/ten-ways-to-tell-if-your-president-is-a-dictator/).
Walt, Stephen. 2017. “Top 10 Signs of Creeping Authoritarianism, Revisited.” Foreign Policy. Retrieved July 10, 2018: (https://foreignpolicy.com/2017/07/27/top-10-signs-of-creeping-authoritarianism-revisited/).
Wolford, Scott. 2007. “The Turnover Trap: New leaders, Reputation, and International Conflict.” American Journal of Political Science 51(4): 772–88.
Yarhi-Milo, Keren. 2018. “After Credibility: American Foreign Policy in the Trump Era.” Foreign Affairs. Retrieved July 23, 2018 (https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/2017-12-12/after-credibility).
Zaller, John. 1992. The Nature and Origins of Mass Opinion. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
Recommend this journal

Email your librarian or administrator to recommend adding this journal to your organisation's collection.

Perspectives on Politics
  • ISSN: 1537-5927
  • EISSN: 1541-0986
  • URL: /core/journals/perspectives-on-politics
Please enter your name
Please enter a valid email address
Who would you like to send this to? *
×
Type Description Title
WORD
Supplementary materials

Evers et al. supplementary material
Online Appendix

 Word (1.1 MB)
1.1 MB

Metrics

Altmetric attention score

Full text views

Total number of HTML views: 0
Total number of PDF views: 0 *
Loading metrics...

Abstract views

Total abstract views: 0 *
Loading metrics...

* Views captured on Cambridge Core between <date>. This data will be updated every 24 hours.

Usage data cannot currently be displayed