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Press Room Predictions

  • Linda Greenhouse (a1)

Scrolling through the results of the Supreme Court Forecasting Project in July 2003, I regarded nearly every prediction as within the realm of plausibility until I reached the statistical model's forecast of the outcome in Lawrence v. Texas, the gay rights case. The model predicted that the Supreme Court would affirm by a 5–4 vote the judgment of the Texas Court of Appeals that the state's law criminalizing gay sex was constitutional. This was such a gaffe that it led me to question whether all the fancy modeling was worth the effort. (Two of the three experts correctly predicted a 6–3 reversal; the third made the same mistake as the model.)For her coverage of the Court, Linda Greenhouse was awarded a Pulitzer Prize in journalism in 1998. In 2002 the American Political Science Association presented her with its Carey McWilliams Award “for a major journalistic contribution to our understanding of politics.”

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Greenhouse, Linda 2002b. Supreme Court seems skeptical of F.C.C. position on Next Wave. New York Times, October 9.
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Greenhouse, Linda 2002d. Court revisits question of jury selection bias. New York Times, October 17.
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Greenhouse, Linda 2002f. Asbestos appeal centers on fear of cancer. New York Times, November 7.
Greenhouse, Linda 2002g. Method of legal services financing is challenged before Supreme Court. New York Times, December 10.
Greenhouse, Linda 2002h. An intense attack by Justice Thomas on cross-burning. New York Times, December 12.
Greenhouse, Linda 2002i. Court ponders limits of punitive damages. New York Times, December 12.
Greenhouse, Linda 2003a. Nike, fighting trade suit, asks justices for free-speech protection. New York Times, April 24.
Greenhouse, Linda 2003b. Medical leave act is debated in major federalism case. New York Times, January 16.
Greenhouse, Linda 2003c. Justices seem to lean to charity telemarketer. New York Times, March 4.
Greenhouse, Linda 2003d. Justices hear arguments on campaign finance. New York Times, March 26.
Greenhouse, Linda 2003e. Court appears ready to reverse a sodomy law. New York Times, March 27.
Greenhouse, Linda 2003f. Affirmative reaction: Can the justices buck what the establishment backs? New York Times, March 30.
Greenhouse, Linda 2003g. Justices look for nuance in race-preference case. New York Times, April 2.
Greenhouse, Linda 2003h. Justices show their doubts on state law on Holocaust. New York Times, April 24.
Greenhouse, Linda 2003i. First Amendment argument is made in a trespass case. New York Times, May 1.
Greenhouse, Linda 2003j. In a momentous term, justices remake the law, and the Court. New York Times, July 1.
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