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Searching for Bright Lines in the Trump Presidency

  • John M. Carey, Gretchen Helmke, Brendan Nyhan, Mitchell Sanders and Susan Stokes...


Is American democracy under threat? The question is more prominent in political debate now than at any time in recent memory. However, it is also too blunt; there is widespread recognition that democracy is multifaceted and that backsliding, when it occurs, tends to be piecemeal. To address these concerns, we provide original data from surveys of political science experts and the public measuring the perceived importance and performance of U.S. democracy on a number of dimensions during the first year-and-a-half of the Trump presidency. We draw on a theory of how politicians may transgress limits on their authority and the conditions under which constraints are self-enforcing. We connect this theory to our survey data in an effort to identify potential areas of agreement—bright lines—among experts and the public about the most important democratic principles and whether they have been violated. Public and expert perceptions often differ on the importance of specific democratic principles. In addition, though our experts perceive substantial democratic erosion, particularly in areas related to checks and balances, polarization between Trump supporters and opponents undermines any social consensus recognizing these violations.

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A list of permanent links to Supplemental Materials provided by the authors precedes the References section.


Data replication sets are available in Harvard Dataverse at:

Bright Line Watch surveys were generously funded by grants from the Democracy Fund and the William and Flora Hewlett Foundation. The authors are extremely grateful to YeonKyung Jeong for outstanding research assistance, and to three anonymous reviewers. All errors in the manuscript are the authors’ sole responsibility.



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Type Description Title
Supplementary materials

Carey et al. Dataset

Supplementary materials

Carey et al. supplementary material

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Searching for Bright Lines in the Trump Presidency

  • John M. Carey, Gretchen Helmke, Brendan Nyhan, Mitchell Sanders and Susan Stokes...


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