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Statistical Analysis of Endorsement Experiments: Measuring Support for Militant Groups in Pakistan

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  04 January 2017

Will Bullock
Affiliation:
Department of Politics, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08544
Kosuke Imai
Affiliation:
Department of Politics, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08544
Jacob N. Shapiro
Affiliation:
Department of Politics, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08544
Corresponding
E-mail address:

Abstract

Political scientists have long been interested in citizens' support level for such actors as ethnic minorities, militant groups, and authoritarian regimes. Attempts to use direct questioning in surveys, however, have largely yielded unreliable measures of these attitudes as they are contaminated by social desirability bias and high nonresponse rates. In this paper, we develop a statistical methodology to analyze endorsement experiments, which recently have been proposed as a possible solution to this measurement problem. The commonly used statistical methods are problematic because they cannot properly combine responses across multiple policy questions, the design feature of a typical endorsement experiment. We overcome this limitation by using item response theory to estimate support levels on the same scale as the ideal points of respondents. We also show how to extend our model to incorporate a hierarchical structure of data in order to uncover spatial variation of support while recouping the loss of statistical efficiency due to indirect questioning. We illustrate the proposed methodology by applying it to measure political support for Islamist militant groups in Pakistan. Simulation studies suggest that the proposed Bayesian model yields estimates with reasonable levels of bias and statistical power. Finally, we offer several practical suggestions for improving the design and analysis of endorsement experiments.

Type
Articles
Copyright
Copyright © The Author 2011. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society for Political Methodology 

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Footnotes

Authors' note: All of the code necessary to reproduce the results in this paper can be downloaded from the Dataverse as Bullock, Imai, and Shapiro (2011). A previous version of this paper was circulated as “Measuring Political Support and Issue Ownership Using Endorsement Experiments, with Application to the Militant Groups in Pakistan.”

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