Skip to main content
×
Home
    • Aa
    • Aa

Comparing Dynamic Specifications: The Case of Presidential Approval

Abstract

This article compares a variety of models of presidential approval in terms of their dynamic properties and their theoretical underpinnings. Exponential distributed lags, partial adjustment, error correction, and transfer function models are considered. The major difference between the models lies in interpretation rather than statistical properties. The error correction model seems most satisfactory. Approval models based on individual level theories are examined, and found to give no additional purchase.

Copyright
Linked references
Hide All

This list contains references from the content that can be linked to their source. For a full set of references and notes please see the PDF or HTML where available.

N. Beck 1989. “Estimating Dynamic Models Using Kalman Filtering.” Political Analysis 1: 121–56.

H. Chappell , and W. Keech 1985. “A New View of Political Accountability for Economic Performance.” American Political Science Review 79: 1027.

J. Davidson , D. Hendry , F. Srba , and S. Yeo 1978. “Econometric Modeling of the Aggregate Time-Series Relationship between Consumers’ Expenditures and Income in the United Kingdom.” Economic Journal 88: 661–92.

R. Davidson , and J. MacKinnon 1981. “Several Tests for Model Specification in the Presence of Alternative Hypotheses.” Econometrica 49: 781–93.

D. Dickey , and W. Fuller 1979. “Distribution of the Estimators for Autoregressive Times Series with Unit Root.” Journal of the American Statistical Association 74: 427–31.

R. Engle , and C. Granger 1987. “Cointegration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing.” Econometrica 55: 251–76.

J. Freeman , J. Williams , and T. M. Lin 1989. “Vector Autoregression and the Study of Politics.” American Journal of Political Science 33: 842–77.

C. Granger , and M. Morris 1976. ‘Time-Series Modeling and Interpretation.” Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, ser. A 139: 246–57.

C. Granger , and P. Newbold 1986. Forecasting Economic Time-Series. 2d ed. Orlando: Academic Press.

D. Hendry , A. Pagan , and J. Sargan 1984. “Dynamic Specification.” In Handbook of Econometrics, ed. Z. Griliches and M. Intriligator , 2:10231100. Amsterdam: North-Holland.

G. Judge , W. Griffiths , R. Hill , H. Lutkepohl , and T.-C. Lee 1985. The Theory and Practice of Econometrics. 2d ed. New York: Wiley.

S. Kernell 1978. “Explaining Presidential Popularity.” American Political Science Review 72: 506–22.

M. MacKuen , R. Erickson , and J. Stimson 1989. “Macropartisanship.” American Political Science Review 83: 1125–42.

J. Mueller 1970. “Presidential Popularity from Truman to Johnson.” American Political Science Review 64: 1834.

D. Sargan 1980. “Some Tests of Dynamic Specification for a Single Equation.” Econometrica 48: 879–97.

J. Stock , and M. Watson 1988. “Variable Trends in Economic Time-Series.” Journal of Economic Perspectives 2 (3): 147–74.

P. Whitely 1984. “Inflation, Unemployment, and Government Popularity—Dynamic Models for the United States, Britain, and West Germany.” Electoral Studies 3: 324.

Recommend this journal

Email your librarian or administrator to recommend adding this journal to your organisation's collection.

Political Analysis
  • ISSN: 1047-1987
  • EISSN: 1476-4989
  • URL: /core/journals/political-analysis
Please enter your name
Please enter a valid email address
Who would you like to send this to? *
×
MathJax

Metrics

Full text views

Total number of HTML views: 0
Total number of PDF views: 1 *
Loading metrics...

Abstract views

Total abstract views: 25 *
Loading metrics...

* Views captured on Cambridge Core between 4th January 2017 - 22nd August 2017. This data will be updated every 24 hours.