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Introduction to Symposium on Time Series Error Correction Methods in Political Science

  • Janet Box-Steffensmeier (a1) and Agnar Freyr Helgason (a2)
Abstract

In recent years, political science has seen a boom in the use of sophisticated methodological tools for time series analysis. One such tool is the general error correction model (GECM), originally introduced to political scientists in the pages of this journal over 20 years ago (Durr 1992; Ostrom and Smith 1992) and re-introduced by De Boef and Keele (2008), who advocate its use for a wider set of time series data than previously considered appropriate. Their article has proven quite influential, with numerous papers justifying their methodological choices with reference to De Boef and Keele's contribution.

Grant and Lebo (2016) take issue with the increasing use of the GECM in political science and argue that the methodology is widely misused and abused by practitioners. Given the recent surge of research conducted using error correction methods, there is every reason to take their suggestions seriously and provide a fuller discussion of the points they raise in their paper. The present symposium serves such a role. It consists of Grant and Lebo's critique, a detailed response by Keele, Linn, and Webb (2016b), and shorter comments by Esarey (2016), Freeman (2016), and Helgason (2016). Finally, Lebo and Grant (2016) and Keele, Linn, and Webb (2016a) reflect on the contributions made in the symposium, as well as discuss outstanding issues.

Copyright
Corresponding author
e-mail: box-steffensmeier.2@osu.edu (corresponding author)
References
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Janet M. Box-Steffensmeier , John Freeman , Matthew Hitt , and Jon Pevehouse . 2014. Time Series Analysis for the Social Sciences. New York: Cambridge University Press.

Janet M. Box-Steffensmeier , John Freeman, Matthew Hitt , and Jon Pevehouse . 2014. Time Series Analysis for the Social Sciences. New York: Cambridge University Press.

Suzanna De Boef , and Luke Keele . 2008. Taking time seriously. American Journal of Political Science 52(1): 184200.

Suzanna De Boef , and Luke Keele . 2008. Taking time seriously. American Journal of Political Science 52(1): 184200.

Robert H. Durr 1992. An essay on cointegration and error correction models. Political Analysis 4:185227.

Robert H. Durr 1992. An essay on cointegration and error correction models. Political Analysis 4:185227.

Justin Esarey . 2016. Fractionally integrated data and the autodistributed lag model: Results from a simulation study. Political Analysis 24:4249.

Justin Esarey . 2016. Fractionally integrated data and the autodistributed lag model: Results from a simulation study. Political Analysis 24:4249.

John Freeman . 2016. Progress in the study of nonstationary political time series? Political Analysis 24:5058.

John Freeman . 2016. Progress in the study of nonstationary political time series? Political Analysis 24:5058.

Taylor Grant , and Matthew J. Lebo 2016. Error correction methods with political time series. Political Analysis 24:330.

Taylor Grant , and Matthew J. Lebo 2016. Error correction methods with political time series. Political Analysis 24:330.

Agnar Freyr Helgason . 2016. Fractional integration methods and short time series: Evidence from a simulation study. Political Analysis 24:5968.

Agnar Freyr Helgason . 2016. Fractional integration methods and short time series: Evidence from a simulation study. Political Analysis 24:5968.

Luke Keele , Suzanna Linn , and Clayton Webb . 2016a. Taking time with all due seriousness. Political Analysis 24:3141.

Luke Keele , Suzanna Linn , and Clayton Webb . 2016a. Taking time with all due seriousness. Political Analysis 24:3141.

Luke Keele , Suzanna Linn , and Clayton Webb . 2016b. Concluding comments. Political Analysis 24:8386.

Luke Keele , Suzanna Linn , and Clayton Webb . 2016b. Concluding comments. Political Analysis 24:8386.

Matthew J. Lebo , and Taylor Grant . 2016. Equation balance and dynamic political modeling. Political Analysis 24:6982.

Matthew J. Lebo , and Taylor Grant . 2016. Equation balance and dynamic political modeling. Political Analysis 24:6982.

Charles W. Ostrom , and Renee M. Smith 1992. Error correction, attitude persistence, and executive rewards and punishments: A behavioral theory of presidential approval. Political Analysis 4:127–83.

Charles W. Ostrom , and Renee M. Smith 1992. Error correction, attitude persistence, and executive rewards and punishments: A behavioral theory of presidential approval. Political Analysis 4:127–83.

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Political Analysis
  • ISSN: 1047-1987
  • EISSN: 1476-4989
  • URL: /core/journals/political-analysis
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