Skip to main content
×
×
Home

Simulating Counterfactual Representation

  • Andrew C. Eggers (a1) and Benjamin E. Lauderdale (a2)
Abstract

We show how to use multilevel modeling and post-stratification to estimate legislative outcomes under counterfactual representation schemes that, for example, boost the representation of women or translate votes into seats differently. We apply this technique to two research questions: (1) Would the U.S. Congress be less polarized if state delegations were formed according to the principle of party proportional representation? (2) Would there have been stronger support for legalizing same-sex marriage in the U.K. House of Commons if Parliament more closely reflected the population in gender and age?

Copyright
Corresponding author
e-mail: aeggers@gmail.com
Footnotes
Hide All

Authors' note: The authors thank the associate editor (Justin Grimmer) and two anonymous reviewers for helpful comments; Jennifer vanVeerde-Hudson and Rosie Campbell for sharing data; and participants at the 2015 Midwest Political Science Association annual meetings for useful feedback. Replication materials are available online on the Political Analysis Dataverse at http://dx.doi.org/10.7910/DVN/54JC6M.

Footnotes
References
Hide All
Bump, Philip. 2015. What would change if Congress were as lopsidedly female as it is male? Not much. http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/wp/2015/03/06/what-would-change-if-congress-were-as-lopsidedly-female-as-it-is-male-not-much/.
Cameron, Charles, Epstein, David, and O’Halloran, Sharyn. 1996. Do majority-minority districts maximize substantive black representation in Congress? American Political Science Review 90(04): 794812.
Carnes, Nicholas. 2012. Does the numerical underrepresentation of the working class in Congress matter? Evidence from roll call voting in the House of Representatives. Legislative Studies Quarterly 37(1): 534.
Carnes, Nicholas, and Lupu, Noam. 2015. Rethinking the comparative perspective on class and representation: Evidence from Latin America. American Journal of Political Science 59(1): 118.
Duverger, Maurice. 1954. Political parties: Their organization and activity in the modern state. New York: John Wiley & Sons, Inc:.
Eggers, Andrew C., and Lauderdale, Benjamin. 2015. Replication data for: Simulating counterfactual representation. Harvard Dataverse, V1. doi:10.7910/DVN/54JC6M. http://dx.doi.org/10.7910/DVN/54JC6M.
Gelman, Andrew, and King, Gary. 1994. A unified method of evaluating electoral systems and redistricting plans. American Journal of Political Science 38(2): 514–54.
Gelman, Andrew, and Little, T. C. 1997. Postratification into many categories using hierarchical logistic regression. Survey Methodology 23:127–35.
Hudson, Jennifer vanHeerde, and Campbell, Rosie. 2015. Parliamentary candidates UK dataset (v. 1). http://www.parliamentarycandidates.org.
King, Gary, Tomz, Michael, and Wittenberg, Jason. 2000. Making the most of statistical analyses: Improving interpretation and presentation. American Journal of Political Science 44:341–55.
McCarty, Nolan, Poole, Keith T., and Rosenthal, Howard. 2006. Polarized America: The dance of ideology and unequal riches, Vol. 5. Cambridge (MA): MIT Press.
Park, David K., Gelman, Andrew, and Bafumi, Joseph. 2004. Bayesian multilevel estimation with poststratification: State-level estimates from national polls. Political Analysis 12(4): 375–85.
Poole, Keith T., and Rosenthal, Howard. 1997. Congress: A political-economic history of roll call voting. Oxford: Oxford University Press.
13Another explanation is one that arises in all assessments of congruence between public opinion and legislative voting: voting in Parliament is different from responding to a survey. It may be that our exercise has brought support in Parliament closer to what would have happened if a random sample of the population were actually asked to vote on the issue in Parliament.
Särndal, Carl-Erik, and Lundström, Sixten. 2005. Estimation in surveys with nonresponse. Chichester: John Wiley & Sons.
Shor, Boris, and McCarty, Nolan. 2011. The ideological mapping of American legislatures. American Political Science Review 105(3): 530–51.
Sides, John. 2015. What would change if there were more women in Congress? More than you think. http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/monkey-cage/wp/2015/03/07/what-would-change-if-there-were-more-women-in-congress-more-than-you-think/.
Simon, Dennis M., and Palmer, Barbara. 2010. The roll call behavior of men and women in the US House of Representatives, 1937–2008. Politics & Gender 6(02): 225–46.
Recommend this journal

Email your librarian or administrator to recommend adding this journal to your organisation's collection.

Political Analysis
  • ISSN: 1047-1987
  • EISSN: 1476-4989
  • URL: /core/journals/political-analysis
Please enter your name
Please enter a valid email address
Who would you like to send this to? *
×
MathJax

Metrics

Altmetric attention score

Full text views

Total number of HTML views: 0
Total number of PDF views: 0 *
Loading metrics...

Abstract views

Total abstract views: 0 *
Loading metrics...

* Views captured on Cambridge Core between <date>. This data will be updated every 24 hours.

Usage data cannot currently be displayed