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Timing of Vote Decision in First and Second Order Dutch Elections 1978–1995: Evidence from Artificial Neural Networks

Abstract

A time series (t = 921) of weekly survey data on vote intentions in the Netherlands for the period 1978–1995 shows that the percentage of undecided voters follows a cyclical pattern over the election calendar. The otherwise substantial percentage of undecided voters decreases sharply in weeks leading up to an election and gradually increases afterwards. This article models the dynamics of this asymmetric electoral cycle using artificial neural networks, with the purpose of estimating when the undecided voters start making up their minds. We find that they begin to decide which party to vote for nine weeks before a first order national parliamentary election and one to four weeks before a second order election, depending on the type of election (European Parliament, Provincial States, City-councils). The effect of political campaigns and the implications for political analysis are discussed.

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Corresponding author
Correspondence to Dick van Dijk, Tinbergen Institute, P.O. Box 1738, NL-3000 DR Rotterdam, the Netherlands, e-mail: djvandijk@few.eur.nl. GAUSS programs estimate parameters in artificial neural networks will soon be available at http://www.few.eur.nl/few/people/franses/.
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Our thanks to Walter Mebane and Jonathan Wand.

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This list contains references from the content that can be linked to their source. For a full set of references and notes please see the PDF or HTML where available.

Barbara A. Anderson , and Brian D. Silver 1986. “Measurement and Mis-measurement of the Validity of the Self-reported Vote.” American Journal of Political Science 30: 771–85.

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C. R. Hofstetter 1973. “Inter-party Competition and Electoral Turnout.” American Journal of Political Science 17: 351–66.

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Lee Sigelman . 1982. “The Nonvoting Voter in Voting Research.” American Journal of Political Science 26: 4756.

David H. Weaver 1996. “What Voters Learn from Media.” Annals of the American Academy of Political and Social Science 546: 3447.

D. Charles Whitney , and Steven B. Goldman 1985. “Media Use and Time of Vote Decision: A Study of the 1980 Presidential Election.” Communication Research 12: 511–29.

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Political Analysis
  • ISSN: 1047-1987
  • EISSN: 1476-4989
  • URL: /core/journals/political-analysis
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