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Estimating subnational preferences across the European Union

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  27 August 2019

Jana Lipps
Affiliation:
Center for Comparative and International Studies, ETH Zurich, Switzerland
Dominik Schraff
Affiliation:
Center for Comparative and International Studies, ETH Zurich, Switzerland
Corresponding

Abstract

Subnational analyses of political preferences are substantively relevant and offer advantages for causal inference. Yet, our knowledge on regional political preferences across Europe is limited, not least because there is a lack of adequate data. The rich Eurobarometer (EB) data is a promising source for European-wide regional information. Yet, it is only representative for the national level. This paper compares state-of-the-art methods for estimating regional preferences from nationally representative EB data, validating predictions with regionally representative surveys. Our analysis highlights a number of challenges for estimating regional preferences across Europe, such as data availability, variable selection, and over-fitting. We find that predictions are best using a Bayesian additive regression tree with synthetic post-stratification.

Type
Research Note
Copyright
Copyright © The European Political Science Association 2019

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