Skip to main content
×
×
Home

Investigating Sequences in Ordinal Data: A New Approach With Adapted Evolutionary Models

  • Patrik Lindenfors, Fredrik Jansson, Yi-ting Wang and Staffan I. Lindberg
Abstract

This paper presents a new approach for studying temporal sequences across ordinal variables. It involves three complementary approaches (frequency tables, transitional graphs, and dependency tables), as well as an established adaptation based on Bayesian dynamical systems, inferring a general system of change. The frequency tables count pairs of values in two variables and transitional graphs depict changes, showing which variable tends to attain high values first. The dependency tables investigate which values of one variable are prerequisites for values in another, as a more direct test of causal hypotheses. We illustrate the proposed approaches by analyzing the V-Dem dataset, and show that changes in electoral democracy are preceded by changes in freedom of expression and access to alternative information.

  • View HTML
    • Send article to Kindle

      To send this article to your Kindle, first ensure no-reply@cambridge.org is added to your Approved Personal Document E-mail List under your Personal Document Settings on the Manage Your Content and Devices page of your Amazon account. Then enter the ‘name’ part of your Kindle email address below. Find out more about sending to your Kindle. Find out more about sending to your Kindle.

      Note you can select to send to either the @free.kindle.com or @kindle.com variations. ‘@free.kindle.com’ emails are free but can only be sent to your device when it is connected to wi-fi. ‘@kindle.com’ emails can be delivered even when you are not connected to wi-fi, but note that service fees apply.

      Find out more about the Kindle Personal Document Service.

      Investigating Sequences in Ordinal Data: A New Approach With Adapted Evolutionary Models
      Available formats
      ×
      Send article to Dropbox

      To send this article to your Dropbox account, please select one or more formats and confirm that you agree to abide by our usage policies. If this is the first time you use this feature, you will be asked to authorise Cambridge Core to connect with your <service> account. Find out more about sending content to Dropbox.

      Investigating Sequences in Ordinal Data: A New Approach With Adapted Evolutionary Models
      Available formats
      ×
      Send article to Google Drive

      To send this article to your Google Drive account, please select one or more formats and confirm that you agree to abide by our usage policies. If this is the first time you use this feature, you will be asked to authorise Cambridge Core to connect with your <service> account. Find out more about sending content to Google Drive.

      Investigating Sequences in Ordinal Data: A New Approach With Adapted Evolutionary Models
      Available formats
      ×
Copyright
Footnotes
Hide All
*

Patrik Lindenfors is Associate Professor in the Institute for Future Studies, Box 591, 101 31 Stockholm, Sweden; Centre for the Study of Cultural Evolution and the Department of Zoology, Stockholm University; and Research Associate in the V-Dem Institute, University of Gothenburg (patrik.lindenfors@iffs.se). Fredrik Jansson is a Postdoctoral Research Fellow in the Centre for the Study of Cultural Evolution, Stockholm University, Sweden and Senior Lecturer in the Division of Applied Mathematics, Mälardalen University, Sweden (fredrik.jansson@intercult.su.se). Yi-ting Wang is an Assistant Professor in the Department of Political Science, National Cheng Kung University, No.1, University Road, Tainan City 701, Taiwan (R.O.C.) (yitingw@mail.ncku.edu.tw) and Research Associate in the V-Dem Institute, University of Gothenburg. Staffan I. Lindberg is Professor in the Department of Political Science and Director in the V-Dem Institute, University of Gothenburg, Box 711, 405 30 Gothenburg, Sweden (xlista@gu.se). This research project was supported by the Marianne and Marcus Wallenberg Foundation to Patrik Lindenfors, Grant MMW 2017.0049; by the Knut and Alice Wallenberg Foundation, grant 2015.0005 to F. J.; by Riksbankens Jubileumsfond, grant M13-0559:1, PI: S. I. L., V-Dem Institute, University of Gothenburg, Sweden; by the Swedish Research Council, 2013.0166, PI: S. I. L., V-Dem Institute, University of Gothenburg, Sweden and Jan Teorell, Department of Political Science, Lund University, Sweden; by the Knut and Alice Wallenberg Foundation to Wallenberg Academy Fellow S. I. L., V-Dem Institute, University of Gothenburg, Sweden; by the University of Gothenburg, Grant E 2013/43, as well as by internal grants from the Vice-Chancellor’s office, the Dean of the College of Social Sciences, and the Department of Political Science at University of Gothenburg. To view supplementary material for this article, please visit https://doi.org/10.1017/psrm.2018.9

Footnotes
References
Hide All
Abbott, Andrew. 1995. ‘Sequence Analysis: New Methods for Old Ideas’. Annual Review of Sociology 21:93113.
Abbott, Andrew, and Tsay, Angela. 2000. ‘Sequence Analysis and Optimal Matching Methods in Sociology: Review and Prospect’. Sociological Methods & Research 29(1):333.
Acemoglu, Daron, and Robinson, James A.. 2001. ‘A Theory of Political Transitions’. American Economic Review 91(4):938963.
Agresti, Alan. 2013. Categorical data analysis. Hoboken: John Wiley & Sons.
Beck, Nathaniel 2008. ‘Time-Series-Cross-Section Methods’. In Janet M. Box-Steffensmeier, Henry E. Brady and David Collier (eds), Oxford Handbook of Political Methodology, 475–93. Oxford: Oxford University Press.
Boix, Carles. 2003. Democracy and Redistribution. New York: Cambridge University Press.
Buton, François, Lemercier, Claire, and Mariot, Nicolas. 2012. ‘The Household Effect on Electoral Participation. A Contextual Analysis of Voter Signatures from a French Polling Station (1982–2007)’. Electoral Studies 31(2):434447.
Casper, Gretchen, and Wilson, Matthew. 2015. ‘Using Sequences to Model Crises’. Political Science Research and Methods 3(2):381397.
Coppedge, Michael, Gerring, John, Lindberg, Staffan I., Pemstein, Daniel, Skaaning, Svend-Erik, Teorell, Jan, Tzelgov, Eitan, Marquardt, Kyle, Wang, Yi-ting, Pernes, Josefine, Stepanova, Natalia, Miri, Farhad, Mechkova, Valeriya, and Andersson, Frida. 2015a. ‘Varieties of Democracy: Methodology v5’. Varieties of Democracy (V-Dem) Project. Available at http://www.v-dem.net.
Coppedge, Michael, Gerring, John, Lindberg, Staffan I., Teorell, Jan, Altman, David, Bernhard, Michael, Fish, M. Steven, Glynn, Adam, Hicken, Allen, Knutsen, Carl Henrik, McMann, Kelly, Pemstein, Daniel, Skaaning, Svend-Erik, Staton, Jeffrey, Tzelgov, Eitan, Wang, Yi-ting, Zimmerman, Brigitte, Marquardt, Kyle, and Miri, Farhad. 2015b. ‘Varieties of Democracy: Dataset v5’. Varieties of Democracy (V-Dem) Project. Available at http://www.v-dem.net.
Coppedge, Michael, Gerring, John, Lindberg, Staffan I., Teorell, Jan, Altman, David, Bernhard, Michael, Fish, M. Steven, Glynn, Adam, Hicken, Allen, Knutsen, Carl Henrik, McMann, Kelly, Pemstein, Daniel, Skaaning, Svend-Erik, Staton, Jeffrey, Mechkova, Valeriya, and Andersson, Frida. 2015c. ‘Varieties of Democracy: Codebook v5’. Varieties of Democracy (V-Dem) Project. Available at http://www.v-dem.net.
Coppedge, Michael, Gerring, John, Lindberg, Staffan I., Skaaning, Svend-Erik, and Teorell, Jan. 2015d. ‘Varieties of Democracy: Comparisons and Contrasts’. Varieties of Democracy (V-Dem) Project. Available at http://www.v-dem.net.
Dahl, Robert A. 1971. Polyarchy. New Haven, CT: Yale University Press.
Dahl, Robert A. 1989. Democracy and its Critics. New Haven, CT: Yale University Press.
Diamond, Larry Jay, Linz, Juan J, and Lipset, Seymour Martin. 1989. Democracy in Developing Countries. Boulder, CO: Lynne Rienner Publishers Inc.
Fillieule, Olivier, and Blanchard, Philippe. 2012. ‘Fighting Together. Assessing Continuity and Change in Social Movement Organizations Through the Study of Constituencies’ Heterogeneity’. In Kauppi Niilo (ed.), A Political Sociology of Transnational Europe, 79–110. Colchester, UK: European Consortium for Political Research Press.
Gauthier, Jacques-Antoine, Eric, D. Widmer., Bucher, Philip, and Notredame, Cédric. 2010. ‘Multichannel Sequence Analysis Applied to Social Science Data’. Sociological Methodology 40(1):138.
Granger, Clive W. J. 1969. ‘Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-Spectral Methods’. Econometrica 37(3):424438.
Heise, David R. 1989. ‘Modelling Event Structures’. Journal of Mathematical Sociology 14:139169.
Heise, David R. 1991. ‘Event Structure Analysis: A Qualitative Model of Quantitative Research’. In N. Fielding and R. Lee (eds.), Using Computers in Qualitative Research, 136–163. Newbury Park, CA: Sage.
Lindberg, Staffan I. 2016. ‘Ordinal Versions of V-Dem’s Indices: When Interval Measures Are Not Useful for Classification, Description, and Sequencing Analysis Purposes’. Geopolitics, History, and International Relations 8(2):76111.
Munck, Gerardo L. 2001. ‘The Regime Question: Theory Building in Democracy Studies’. World Politics 54(1):119144.
Pemstein, Daniel, Tzelgov, Eitan, and Wang, Yi-ting. 2015. ‘Evaluating and Improving Item Response Theory Models for Cross-National Expert Surveys’. V-Dem Working Paper 2015:1, Varieties of Democracy Institute, Gothenburg: University of Gothenburg.
Ragin, Charles C. 1987. The Comparative Method: Moving Beyond Qualitative and Quantitative Strategies. Berkeley and Los Angeles: University of California Press.
Ranganathan, Shyam, Spaiser, Viktoria, Mann, Richard P., and Sumpter, David J. T.. 2014. ‘Bayesian Dynamical Systems Modelling in the Social Sciences’. PloS One 9(1):e86468.
Rihoux, Benoît, and Ragin, Charles C. (eds) 2009. ‘Configurational Comparative Methods: Qualitative comparative analysis (QCA) and Related Techniques’. London: Sage.
Sartori, Giovanni. 1987. The Theory of Democracy Revisited. London: Chatham House Publishers.
Schmitter, Philippe C., and Karl, Terry L.. 1991. ‘What Democracy Is… and Is Not’. Journal of Democracy 2(3):7588.
Schumpeter, Joseph Alois. 1947. Capitalism, Socialism and Democracy. Whitefish: Kessinger Publishing, LLC.
Sillen-Tullberg, Birgitta. 1993. ‘The Effect of Biased Inclusion of Taxa on the Correlation Between Discrete Characters in Phylogenetic Trees’. Evolution 47:11821191.
Spaiser, Viktoria, Ranganathan, Shyam, Mann, Richard P., and Sumpter, David J. T.. 2014. ‘The Dynamics of Democracy, Development and Cultural Values’. PloS One 9(6):e97856.
Wilson, Matthew Charles. 2014. ‘Governance Built Step-by-Step: Analysing Sequences to Explain Democratization’. In Philippe Blanchard, Felix Bühlmann and Jacques-Antoine Gauthier (eds), Advances in Sequence Analysis: Theory, Method, Applications, 213227. New York: Springer International Publishing.
Recommend this journal

Email your librarian or administrator to recommend adding this journal to your organisation's collection.

Political Science Research and Methods
  • ISSN: 2049-8470
  • EISSN: 2049-8489
  • URL: /core/journals/political-science-research-and-methods
Please enter your name
Please enter a valid email address
Who would you like to send this to? *
×
Type Description Title
UNKNOWN
Supplementary materials

Lindenfors et al. Dataset
Dataset

 Unknown
WORD
Supplementary materials

Lindenfors et al. supplementary material
Lindenfors et al. supplementary material 1

 Word (782 KB)
782 KB

Metrics

Altmetric attention score

Full text views

Total number of HTML views: 4
Total number of PDF views: 124 *
Loading metrics...

Abstract views

Total abstract views: 396 *
Loading metrics...

* Views captured on Cambridge Core between 5th March 2018 - 16th August 2018. This data will be updated every 24 hours.