Skip to main content
×
Home

Parties are No Civic Charities: Voter Contact and the Changing Partisan Composition of the Electorate*

Abstract

In contrast to non-partisan Get Out the Vote (GOTV) campaigns, political parties do not aim to increase turnout across the board. Instead, their principal goal is to affect the outcome of an election in their favor. To find out how they realize this aim, we carried out a randomized field experiment to evaluate the effect of campaign visits and leafleting by Conservative Party canvassers on turnout in a marginal English Parliamentary constituency during the 2014 European and Local Elections. Commonly-used campaign interventions, leaflets and door-knocks, changed the composition of the electorate in favor of the Conservative Party, but did not increase turnout overall. Supporters of rival parties, particularly Labour self-identifiers, were significantly less likely to mobilize in response to Conservative campaign contact than Conservative supporters. In contrast to the non-partisan GOTV literature, we show that impersonal campaign leaflets were as effective in shaping the local electorate in the Conservative’s favor as personal visits. The common practice of contacting all constituents irrespective of their party preferences was effective as a campaign tactic, but had no civic benefits in the aggregate.

Copyright
Footnotes
Hide All
*

Florian Foos, Postdoctoral Researcher Department of Political Science, University of Zurich, Affolternstrasse 56, 8050 Zurich (foos@ipz.uzh.ch). Peter John, Professor of Political Science and Public Policy, Department of Political Science, University College London, The Rubin Building, 29/31 Tavistock Square, London WC1H 9QU (peter.john@ucl.ac.uk). The authors are very grateful to Jacob Rees-Mogg MP for agreeing to host the study in North East Somerset, and to the constituency workers and canvassers for delivering the intervention and collecting the data so efficiently. The article was first presented at the Midwest Political Science Association Conference, Chicago, April 2015, Panel 23-6 ‘What Works Best? Field Experiments Comparing Mobilization Tactics.’ We thank the participants, in particular the discussant, Lisa Bryant, for their comments. The authors also thank Don Green for his valuable comments on an earlier draft of the paper and Alex Coppock for advice on the statistical analysis. The authors are also grateful to three anonymous reviewers and the editor for their close attention to the manuscript. To view supplementary material for this article, please visit http://dx.doi.org/10.7910/DVN/EWISS3

Footnotes
References
Hide All
Adams William C., and Smith Dennis J.. 1980. ‘Effects of Telephone Canvassing on Turnout and Preferences: A Field Experiment’. Public Opinion Quarterly 44(3):389395.
Arceneaux Kevin. 2007. ‘I’m Asking for Your Support: The Effects of Personally Delivered Campaign Messages on Voting Decisions and Opinion Formation’. Quarterly Journal of Political Science 1:4365.
Arceneaux Kevin, and Kolodny Robin. 2009. ‘Educating the Least Informed: Group Endorsements in a Grassroots Campaign’. American Journal of Political Science 53(4):755770.
Bailey, Michael A., Daniel J. Hopkins, and Todd Rogers. 2016. “Unresponsive and Unpersuaded: The Unintended Consequences of a Voter Persuasion Effort.” Political Behavior 38(3):713746. Accessed 5 November 2016.
Barton Jared, Castillo Marco, and Petrie Ragan. 2014. ‘What Persuades Voters? A Field Experiment on Political Campaigning’. The Economic Journal 124(574):293326.
Berelson Bernard, Lazarsfeld Paul Felix, and McPhee William N.. 1954. Voting: A Study of Opinion Formation in a Presidential Campaign. Midway reprint ed. Chicago, IL: University of Chicago Press.
Coppock Alexander. 2015. ‘12 Things You Need to Know About Multiple Comparisons’. EGAP. Available at http://egap.org/resources/guides/10-things-you-need-to-know-about-multiple-comparisons/, accessed 5 November 2016.
Dale Allison, and Strauss Aaron. 2009. ‘Don’t Forget to Vote: Text Message Reminders as a Mobilization Tool’. American Journal of Political Science 53(4):787804.
Doherty David, and Adler E. Scott. 2014. ‘The Persuasive Effects of Partisan Campaign Mailers’. Political Research Quarterly 59:203210.
Enos Ryan D., Fowler Anthony, and Vavreck Lynn. 2014. ‘Increasing Inequality: The Effect of GOTV Mobilization on the Composition of the Electorate’. The Journal of Politics 76(1):273288.
Festinger Leon. 1957. A Theory of Cognitive Dissonance. Evanston, IL: Row, Peterson.
Fiorina Morris P. 1976. ‘The Voting Decision: Instrumental and Expressive Aspects’. The Journal of Politics 38:390413.
Foos Florian. 2015. ‘Bringing the Party Back in: Mobilization and Persuasion in Constituency Election Campaigns’. PhD Thesis, University of Oxford.
Foos Florian, and de Rooij Eline A.. 2016. ‘The Role of Partisan Cues in Voter Mobilization Campaigns: Evidence from a Randomized Field Experiment’. Working Paper.
Gerber Alan. 2004. ‘Does Campaign Spending Work?: Field Experiments Provide Evidence and Suggest New Theory’. American Behavioral Scientist 47(5):541574.
Gerber Alan, Green Donald, and Larimer Christopher. 2008. ‘Social Pressure and Voter Turnout: Evidence from a Large-Scale Field Experiment’. American Political Science Review 102(1):3348.
Green Donald P. 2004. ‘Results from a Partisan Phone and Canvassing Mobilization Campaign in Pennsylvania Primary Election’. Institution for Social and Policy Studies, Yale University. Available at http://gotv.research.yale.edu/.
Green Donald P., and Gerber Alan S.. 2008. Get Out the Vote: How to Increase Voter Turnout, 2nd ed. Washington, DC: Brookings Institution Press.
Green Donald P., Aronow Peter M., and McGrath Mary C.. 2013. ‘Field Experiments and the Study of Voter Turnout’. Journal of Elections, Public Opinion & Parties 23(1):2748.
Hillygus Sunshine D., and Shields Todd G.. 2008. The Persuadable Voter: Wedge Issues in Presidential Campaigns. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.
Hirschman Albert O. 1970. Exit, Voice, and Loyalty: Responses to Decline in Firms, Organizations, and States. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press.
Holbrook Thomas M., and McClurg Scott D.. 2005. ‘The Mobilization of Core Supporters: Campaigns, Turnout and Electoral Composition in United States Presidential Elections’. American Journal of Political Science 49(4):689703.
Huber Gregory A., and Arceneaux Kevin. 2007. ‘Identifying the Persuasive Effects of Presidential Advertising’. American Journal of Political Science 51(4):961981.
Kendall, Chad, Tomasso Nannicini, and Francesco Trebbi (2014). How do voters respond to information? Evidence from a randomized campaign. The American Economic Review 105(1):322353.
Lazarsfeld Paul Felix, Berelson Bernard, and Gaudet Hazel. 1948. The Peoples Choice: How the Voter Makes Up his Mind in a Presidential Campaign . New York: Columbia University Press.
Lupia Arthur, and McCubbins Mathew D.. 1998. The Democratic Dilemma: Can Citizens Learn What they Need to Know? Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
McNulty John E. 2005. ‘Phone-Based GOTV – What’s on the Line? Field Experiments With Varied Partisan Components, 2002-2003’. The Science of Voter Mobilization. Special Editors: Donald P. Green and Alan S. Gerber’. The Annals of the American Academy of Political and Social Science 601:4165.
Nickerson David W. 2005. ‘Partisan Mobilization Using Volunteer Phone Banks and Door Hangers’. The Annals of the American Academy of Political and Social Science 601(1):1027.
Nickerson David W. 2006. ‘Forget Me Not? The Importance of Timing in Voter Mobilization’. Paper presented at the annual meeting of the American Political Science Association. August 31-September 2 2006, Pennsylvania Convention Center, Philadelphia, PA.
Nickerson David W. 2007. ‘Quality is Job One: Volunteer and Professional Phone Calls’. American Journal of Political Science 51(2):269282.
Nickerson David W., Friedrichs Ryan D., and King David C.. 2006. ‘Partisan Mobilization Campaigns in the Field: Results from a Statewide Turnout Experiment in Michigan’. Political Research Quarterly 59(1):8597.
Nyhan Brendan, and Reifler Jason. 2010. ‘When Corrections Fail: The Persistence of Political Misperceptions’. Political Behavior 32:303330.
Pons Vincent. 2014. ‘The Determinants of Political Behavior : Evidence from Three Randomized Field Experiments’. PhD Thesis, Massachusetts Institute of Technology.
Pons, Vincent. 2016. Will a Five-Minute Discussion Change Your Mind? Harvard Business School Working Paper 16-079: http://www.hbs.edu/faculty/Publication%20Files/16-079_a06efc8e-7efa-400c-b983-4fe56e042394.pdf
Pons Vincent, and Liegey Guillaume. 2016. ‘Increasing the Electoral Participation of Immigrants. Experimental Evidence from France’. Harvard Business School Working Paper 16-094. Available at http://www.hbs.edu/faculty/Publication%20Files/16-094_93541826-4ec0-41b2-b0a9-0640a8841a66.pdf
Ramiro Luis, Morales Laura, and Jimenez-Buedo Maria. 2012. ‘The Effects of Party Mobilization on Electoral Results. An Experimental Study of the 2011 Spanish Local Elections’. Paper prepared for the IPSA conference, July.
Rogers Todd, Fox Craig R., and Gerber Alan S.. 2012. ‘Rethinking Why People Vote: Voting as Dynamic Social Expression’. In Shafir Eldar (ed.). The Behavioral Foundations of Policy. Princeton: Princeton University Press.
Shaw Daron R., Green Donald P., Gimpel James G., and Gerber Alan S.. 2012. ‘Do Robotic Calls from Credible Sources Influence Voter Turnout or Vote Choice? Evidence from a Randomized Field Experiment’. Journal of Political Marketing 11:231245.
Shi Ying. 2015. ‘Cross-Cutting Messages and Voter Turnout: Evidence from a Same-Sex Marriage Amendment’. Political Communication (forthcoming) 10.1080/10584609.2015.2015.1076091.
Zaller John. 1992. The Nature and Origins of Mass Opinion. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
Recommend this journal

Email your librarian or administrator to recommend adding this journal to your organisation's collection.

Political Science Research and Methods
  • ISSN: 2049-8470
  • EISSN: 2049-8489
  • URL: /core/journals/political-science-research-and-methods
Please enter your name
Please enter a valid email address
Who would you like to send this to? *
×
Type Description Title
PDF
Supplementary Materials

Foos and John supplementary material
Foos and John supplementary material 1

 PDF (195 KB)
195 KB

Metrics

Altmetric attention score

Full text views

Total number of HTML views: 1
Total number of PDF views: 57 *
Loading metrics...

Abstract views

Total abstract views: 589 *
Loading metrics...

* Views captured on Cambridge Core between 21st November 2016 - 19th November 2017. This data will be updated every 24 hours.