Skip to main content
×
×
Home

Voter uncertainty, political institutions, and legislative turnover

  • Yanna Krupnikov (a1) and Charles R. Shipan (a2)
Abstract

The level of legislative turnover in a polity can have significant political consequences. Low turnover may increase the number of legislators who are out of touch with constituents, while high turnover can limit a legislature’s ability to fulfill its duties. Focusing on separation of powers arrangements, a factor overlooked by previous studies, we identify institutional conditions that affect turnover. When the executive and legislature are equally responsible for budgetary outcomes, we argue, this creates ambiguous contexts, leaving voters more likely to re-elect incumbents, thereby lowering turnover. We test our predictions using US state-level data.

Copyright
Corresponding author
*Corresponding author. Email: yanna.krupnikov@stonybrook.edu
References
Hide All
Anderson, C (2000) Economic Voting and Political Context: A Comparative Perspective. Electoral Studies 19, 151170.
Anderson, C (2003) The Psychology of Doing Nothing: Forms of Decision Avoidance Result from Reason and Emotion. Psychological Bulletin 129, 139166.
Berry, WD, Berkman, MB Schneiderman, S (2000) Legislative Professionalism and Incumbent Reelection: The Development of Institutional Boundaries. American Political Science Review 94(4), 859874.
Brace, P Ward, D (1999 The Institutionalized Legislature and the Rise of the Antipolitics Era. In Weber R and Brace P (eds), American State and Local Politics , 7196. New York: Chatham House.
Breaux, D Jewell, M (1992) Winning Big: The Incumbency Advantage in State Legislative Races. In Moncrief G and Thompson J (eds), Changing Patterns in State Legislative Careers , 87106. Ann Arbor, MI: University of Michigan Press.
Carey, JM, Niemi, RG Powell, LW(2000) Incumbency and the Probability of Reelection in State Legislative Elections. Journal of Politics 62, 671700.
Clynch, EJ Lauth, TP (eds) (1991) Budgeting in the American States – Conflict and Diversity. Governors, Legislatures and Budgets: Diversity Across the American States . New York: Greenwood.
Crain, WM (1977) On the Structure and Stability of Political Markets. The Journal of Political Economy 85, 829842.
Dilger, RJ, Krause, GR Moffett, RR (1995) State Legislative Professionalism and Gubernatorial Effectiveness, 1978-1991. Legislative Studies Quarterly 20(4), 553571.
Dometrius, NC Wright, DS (2009) State-Level Measures of Institutional Budgetary Influence From the American State Administrators Project (ASAP): 1964-1998. Paper presented at the Ninth Annual Conference on State Politics and Policy, Chapel Hill, NC, 22–23 May.
Druckman, JN Bolsen, T (2011) Framing, Motivated Reasoning and Opinions About Emergent Technologies. Journal of Communication 61(4), 659688.
Ehrlich, S Maestas, C (2010) Risk Orientation, Risk Exposure and Policy Opinions: The Case of Free Trade. Political Psychology. 31(5), 657684.
Fiorina, M (1994) Divided Government in the American States: A Byproduct of Legislative Professionalism. American Political Science Review 88, 304316.
Francis, WL Kenny, LW (1997) Equilibrium Projections of the Consequences of Term Limits Upon Expected Tenure, Institutional Turnover, and Membership Experience. Journal of Politics 59, 240252.
Ghirardato, P Katz, JN (2006) Indecision Theory: Weight of Evidence and Voting Behavior. Journal of Public Economic Theory 8, 379399.
Greene, K (1993) An Economic Investigation of Interstate Variation in Legislative Turnover. Public Finance Quarterly 21, 8499.
Heinsohn, T (2014) Institutional Determinants of Legislative Turnover in the German State Parliaments: 1947–2012. The Journal of Legislative Studies 20(4), 473494.
Heinsohn, T Freitag, M (2012) Institutional Foundations of Legislative Turnover: A Comparative Analysis of the Swiss Cantons. Swiss Political Science Review 18(3), 352370.
Huber, JD Shipan, CR (2002) Deliberate Discretion? New York: Cambridge University Press.
Huber, JD, Shipan, CR Pfahler, M (2001) Legislatures and Statutory Control of Bureaucracy. American Journal of Political Science 45, 330345.
Jewell, ME Breaux, D (1988) The Effect of Incumbency on State Legislative Elections. Legislative Studies Quarterly 13, 495514.
Kahneman, D Tversky, A (1979) Choices, Values and Frames. American Psychologist 39, 341350.
Kahneman, D, Knestch, J Thaler, R (1991) The Endowment Effect, Loss Aversion and Status Quo Bias. Journal of Economic Perspectives 5, 193206.
Kam, CD Simas, EN (2012) Risk Attitudes, Candidate Characteristics and Vote Choice. Public Opinion Quarterly 76(4), 747760.
Kerby, M Blidook, K (2011) It’s Not You, It’s Me: Determinants of Voluntary Legislative Turnover in Canada. Legislative Studies Quarterly 36(4), 621643.
Kiewiet, DR (1981) Policy-Oriented Voting in Response to Economic Issues. American Political Science Review 75, 448459.
Kousser, T (2004) Term Limits and the Dismantling of State Legislative Professionalism. New York: Cambridge University Press.
Kousser, T Phillips, JH (2012) The Power of American Governors. New York: Cambridge University Press.
Krupnikov, Y Shipan, CR (2012) Measuring Gubernatorial Budgetary Power: A New Approach”. State Politics & Policy Quarterly 12, 438455.
Lewis-Beck, MS Stegmaier, M (2000) Economic Determinants of Electoral Outcomes. Annual Review of Political Science 3, 183219.
Leyden, KM Borrelli, SA (1995) The Effect of State Economic Conditions on Gubernatorial Elections: Does Unified Government Make a Difference? Political Research Quarterly 48, 275290.
Maestas, C (2000) Professional Legislatures and Ambitious Politicians: Policy Responsiveness of State Institutions. Legislative Studies Quarterly 25, 663690.
Matland, RE Studlar, DT (2004) Determinants of Legislative Turnover: A Cross-National Analysis. British Journal of Political Science 34(1), 87108.
McCann, PC, Shipan, CR Volden, C (2015) Top-Down Federalism: State Policy Responses to National Government Discussion. Publius 45(4), 495525.
Moncrief, GF (1998) Terminating the Provincial Career: Retirement and Electoral Defeat in Canadian Provincial Legislatures, 1960cy Re. Canadian Journal of Political Science 31(2), 359372.
Moncrief, G, Niemi, R Powell, L (2004) Time, Term Limits and Turnover: Trends in Membership Stability in U.S. State Legislatures. Legislative Studies Quarterly 29, 357381.
Mooney, C (1994) Measuring U.S. State Legislative Professionalism: An Evaluation of Five Indices. State & Local Government Review 26, 7078.
Mutz, DC (1992) Mass Media and the Depoliticization of Personal Experience. American Journal of Political Science 36, 483508.
Niemi, R Winsky, L (1987) Membership Turnover in U.S. State Legislatures: Trends and the Effects of Districting. Legislative Studies Quarterly 12, 115123.
Persson, T, Roland, G Tabellini, G (1997) Separation of Powers and Political Accountability. Quarterly Journal of Economics 112, 11631202.
Powell, GB Whitten, G (1993) A Cross-National Analysis of Economic Voting: Taking Account of the Political Context. American Journal of Political Science 37, 391414.
Rabin, M Thaler, R (2001) Anomalies: Risk Aversion. Journal of Economic Perspectives 15, 219232.
Rosenthal, A (1974) Turnover in State Legislatures. American Journal of Political Science 18, 609616.
Rosenthal, A (1998) The Decline of Representative Democracy. Washington DC: CQ Press.
Rudolph, TJ (2003a) Institutional Context and the Assignment of Political Responsibility”. Journal of Politics 65, 190215.
Rudolph, TJ (2003b) Who’s Responsible for the Economy? The Formation and Consequences of Responsibility Attributions. American Journal of Political Science 47, 698713.
Samuels, D (2000) Ambition and Competition: Explaining Legislative Turnover in Brazil. Legislative Studies Quarterly 25(3), 481497.
Samuelson, W Zeckhauser, R (1988) Status Quo Bias in Decision Making. Journal of Risk and Uncertainty 1, 759.
Shor, B McCarty, N (2011) The Ideological Mapping of American Legislatures. American Political Science Review 105, 530551.
Squire, P (2000) Uncontested Seats in State Legislative Elections. Legislative Studies Quarterly 25, 131146.
Recommend this journal

Email your librarian or administrator to recommend adding this journal to your organisation's collection.

Political Science Research and Methods
  • ISSN: 2049-8470
  • EISSN: 2049-8489
  • URL: /core/journals/political-science-research-and-methods
Please enter your name
Please enter a valid email address
Who would you like to send this to? *
×
Type Description Title
WORD
Supplementary materials

Krupnikov and Shipan supplementary material
Krupnikov and Shipan supplementary material 1

 Word (2.5 MB)
2.5 MB

Metrics

Altmetric attention score

Full text views

Total number of HTML views: 0
Total number of PDF views: 0 *
Loading metrics...

Abstract views

Total abstract views: 0 *
Loading metrics...

* Views captured on Cambridge Core between <date>. This data will be updated every 24 hours.

Usage data cannot currently be displayed