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A Probabilistic Approach to the Drag-Based Model

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  24 July 2018

Gianluca Napoletano ,
Roberta Forte ,
Dario Del Moro ,
Ermanno Pietropaolo ,
Luca Giovannelli  and
Francesco Berrilli
Gianluca Napoletano
Affiliation:
Dipartimento di Scienze Fisiche e Chimiche, Università degli studi dell’Aquila, Via Vetoio snc 67100, L’Aquila (AQ), Italy email: gianluca.napoletano@graduate.univaq.it
Roberta Forte
Affiliation:
Department of Physics, University of Rome Tor Vergata, IT-00133, Rome, Italy
Dario Del Moro
Affiliation:
Department of Physics, University of Rome Tor Vergata, IT-00133, Rome, Italy
Ermanno Pietropaolo
Affiliation:
Dipartimento di Scienze Fisiche e Chimiche, Università degli studi dell’Aquila, Via Vetoio snc 67100, L’Aquila (AQ), Italy email: gianluca.napoletano@graduate.univaq.it
Luca Giovannelli
Affiliation:
Department of Physics, University of Rome Tor Vergata, IT-00133, Rome, Italy
Francesco Berrilli
Affiliation:
Department of Physics, University of Rome Tor Vergata, IT-00133, Rome, Italy
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Abstract

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Forecasting the time of arrival of a Coronal Mass Ejection at Earth is of critical importance for our high-technology society and for any future manned exploration of the Solar System. As critical as the forecast accuracy is the knowledge of its precision, i.e. the error associated to the estimate. Here a statistical approach to the computation of the time of arrival using the Drag-Based Model is proposed through the introduction of probability distributions, rather than exact values, as input parameters, thus allowing the evaluation of the uncertainty on the forecast.

Keywords

Sun: coronal mass ejections (CMEs)

References

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