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Fact or fiction: reducing the proportion and impact of false positives

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  27 November 2017

D. Stahl  and
A. Pickles
D. Stahl
Affiliation:
Department of Biostatistics and Health Informatics, Institute of Psychiatry, Psychology and Neuroscience, King's College London, London, UK
A. Pickles*
Affiliation:
Department of Biostatistics and Health Informatics, Institute of Psychiatry, Psychology and Neuroscience, King's College London, London, UK
*
Author for correspondence: A. Pickles, E-mail: andrew.pickles@kcl.ac.uk
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Abstract

False positive findings in science are inevitable, but are they particularly common in psychology and psychiatry? The evidence that we review suggests that while not restricted to our field, the problem is acute. We describe the concept of researcher ‘degrees-of-freedom’ to explain how many false-positive findings arise, and how the various strategies of registration, pre-specification, and reporting standards that are being adopted both reduce and make these visible. We review possible benefits and harms of proposed statistical solutions, from tougher requirements for significance, to Bayesian and machine learning approaches to analysis. Finally we consider the organisation and methods for replication and systematic review in psychology and psychiatry.

Keywords

Bayes' factorcross-validationexternal validationfalse positivesmeta-analysesreplication crisisresearcher degrees-of-freedomstatistical learning
Type
Invited Review
Information
Psychological Medicine , Volume 48 , Issue 7 , May 2018 , pp. 1084 - 1091
Copyright
Copyright © Cambridge University Press 2017 

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