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Real exchange rates and real interest rates : a nonlinearperspective

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  17 August 2016

Frédérique Bec ,
Mélika Ben Salem  and
Ronald MacDonald
Frédérique Bec
Affiliation:
CREST-ENSAE
Mélika Ben Salem
Affiliation:
OEP, Université de Marne-la-Vallée, France
Ronald MacDonald
Affiliation:
University of Glasgow, Scotland
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Summary

In this paper we use a Threshold AutoRegressive (TAR) model to capture thenonlinear dynamics of monthly real effective exchange rate data for the G7countries. The novelty of our approach relates to the use of the realinterest differential as the switching variable. This choice allows us toconsider jointly the nonlinearity and nonstationarity issues using recentadvances in asymptotic theory. We find that the null of linearity is easilyrejected against the nonlinear model for all currencies considered. Further,for five out of the seven countries, where the null of unit root isrejected, we report evidence of quite rapid mean reversion.

Résumé:

Résumé:

Dans cet article, nous retenons un modèle auto-régressif à seuils de typeTAR afin de capturer la dynamique non linéaire des taux de change réelseffectifs des pays du G7. L'originalité de notre approche provient del'utilisation du différentiel de taux d'intérêt réel comme variable detransition entre les régimes. Ce choix nous permet de considérer leshypothèses de non-linéarité et de non-stationarité conjointement, enexploitant les avancées récentes de la théorie économétrique. L'hypothèsenulle de linéarité est fortement rejetée en faveur du modèle à seuils pourtoutes les devises étudiées. De plus, pour cinq des sept pays considérés,l'hypothèse de racine unitaire est aussi rejetée et les demi-vies du taux dechange réel sont inférieures à un an et demi.

Keywords

Taux de change réelmodèle auto-régressif à seuilracine unitaireF41C22real exchange ratethreshold autoregressive modelunit-rootF41C22

Information

Type
Research Article
Information
Recherches Économiques de Louvain/ Louvain Economic Review , Volume 72 , Issue 2 , 2006 , pp. 177 - 194
Copyright
Copyright © Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de recherches économiques et sociales 2006 

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Footnotes

*

We wish to thank, with usual disclaimers, two anonymous referees for very useful comments on a previous version of this work. Frédérique Bee is grateful to the funding by Danish Social Sciences Research Council (2114-04-0001).

**

CREST-ENSAE, 3 avenue Pierre Larousse, 92245 Malakoff Cedex, France. Email: bec@ensae.fr

***

Email: melika.bensalem@univ-mlv.fr

****

Email: r.macdonald@socsci.gla.ac.uk

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