There is now a relatively well-developed critique of the application of cost-benefit analysis (CBA) to environmental problems. Theories of deliberative democracy have been invoked which question the individualistic, preference-based calculus of CBA. While the critique of CBA is well developed, the positive accounts of the virtues of deliberation appear relatively sketchy. This is a very large task, but the paper argues one important aspect of it can be captured by the following question: What are the relative merits of public deliberation about the environment, vis-a-vis private reporting of individual judgements? The paper addresses this question by seeking to analyse in detail the virtues of discussion in one widely debated deliberative institution, the citizens' jury. Throughout, the paper draws on the experience of a citizens' jury on an environmental problem: a jury on wetland restoration in East Anglia, UK, co-organized by the author.

Implementing a Precautionary Principle can mean different things to different people. Policy analysts may believe that finding a quantitative approach to the Principle would remove ambiguity over fundamental issues. We demonstrate that one approach to quantifying the Precautionary Principle does not necessarily solve what we call the ‘continuation framing problem’. That problem is based in the competing perspectives of stakeholders when they view their own activity as the status quo and a change in that activity as causing irreversible costs. Even a shared analytic framework, here that of real options analysis, does not remove the need for political decisions about property rights in differing uses of the atmosphere.

The influence of the probabilistic set-up (i.e., formal aspects of the presented probability information) and of the task domain on the active search for probability information in quasi-natural risky decision tasks was investigated. In each of four tasks (domains: business, medicine, social, epidemic control) 72 subjects chose between a risky alternative and one without risk. There were three conditions in relation to the probabilistic set-up: (a) In the single condition the decision concerned a single case (e.g., one person). In the two multiple conditions (b and c) the decision was for many cases (e.g., 100 persons). In (b) the decision maker had to make an either-or decision (same alternative for all cases). In (c) the subject could assign a proportion of cases to one alternative and the rest to the other one. While the probabilistic set-up had no effect on the search for probabilistic information, the task domain had a strong impact.

The aim of this research is to determine whether people in the UK associate genetically modified food (GM food) with the ‘mad cow’ disease (or BSE) issue, and explain any such association in terms of analogical reasoning. Further, to test whether a lack of perceived ‘control over exposure’ to GM food accounts for the heightened vulnerability it is typically associated with. Two consecutive questionnaires were administered in various regions of the UK. The first asked 200 participants to indicate whether they regarded GM food as a health risk, and to spontaneously identify issues similar to GM food. The second asked a further 200 to rate the similarity between GM food and BSE, Salmonella, and food irradiation, and to give personal and general risk ratings for consuming GM food, and tolerance ratings for its availability and availability if ‘always clearly labelled’. The results indicate GM food is overwhelmingly identified as a health risk, and that BSE is widely held to be analogous with GM food. However, BSE was rated as less similar to GM food than food irradiation. The widespread identification of BSE as an analogue is explained in terms of it representing a ‘worst-case scenario’. The risk ratings are consistent with the heightened sense of vulnerability associated with GM food; the tolerance ratings are greater for the availability of GM food if ‘always clearly labelled’, indicating a perceived lack of control over exposure to GM food accounts, in part, for GM food risk perceptions. However, the results also indicate that, in terms of practical risk management, labelling may only be effective with respect to a younger age group.

This article presents a method for the management of catastrophic risks generated by industrial activities. The multi-criteria decision-making tool which we have developed does not suffer from the same limitations as decision theory or the standard approach to risk assessment and management. Our quantitative risk analysis takes into account three factors: (1) the analysis of the relative acceptability of risks to society; (2) the minimization of the mathematical expectation of financial losses using a catastrophe aversion coefficient; and (3) the preference for flexibility expressed by industrial managers. This method has been applied to the comparison between two catastrophic risks on a French chemical site.

The notion of residual obligations can be used as a tool to overcome, at least in part, the conflict between the individual's prima facie right not to be exposed to involuntary risks, and the rights of industries and other large organisations to carry out activities that are associated with risks. A typology of residual obligations is developed, and it is applied in a discussion of the moral obligations of those who impose risks on others. The major types are obligations to compensate, to communicate, to improve, to search for knowledge, and to have an appropriate attitude. It is argued that conscientious compliance with risk-related residual obligations is an essential component of what makes it morally acceptable to expose others to risk.

Climatological and agricultural research has shown that El Nino cycles in the Pacific Ocean are a good predictor of maize yields in southern Africa, particularly Zimbabwe. However, forecasters can only offer probabilistic predictions, rather than saying with certainty whether Zimbabwe will experience wet or dry conditions. In an effort to avoid confusing farmers, extension service officers translate the forecast into deterministic terms. This approach conflicts with the literature in risk communication, which suggests that participatory discussions of the full forecast content is necessary to maintain credibility over time. But most of the research on which this literature is based has taken place in industrialized countries, and it is unclear whether the lessons apply as well in places like rural Zimbabwe. To test for this, an experiment was conducted with farmers in villages throughout Zimbabwe, in which they revealed their ability to make decisions under situations of uncertainty. The results are qualitatively similar to those of similar experiments conducted in industrialized countries. This suggests that improvements could be made to current forecast communication practices in Zimbabwe.

Recent droughts in Spain have triggered interest in behavioural responses to drought risk due to climate change. This paper models the sharing of irrigation water from a joint reservoir as a game between farmers, since farmers' demand comprises the major share of water demands. Empirical data from a dynamic recursive mathematical programming model for three case studies are used to test the hypothesis that the present institutional structure provides farmers proper incentives to minimise their water requirement for irrigation.

The analysis with both an estimated static game and an empirically calibrated repeated game shows that most farmers are unlikely to conserve water used for irrigation purposes. In the case where climate change induces a higher drought risk, incentives emerge for farmers to become conservative in their demand for irrigation water, provided that proper institutional arrangements emerge which protect the share of the water saved by farmers for future use.

The regulation of risk is high on the political agenda and viewed as an important component of modernizing government. The Environment Agency of England and Wales has responsibilities for regulating and managing a wide range of risks to and from the environment. In some areas of regulation, a structured and explicit treatent of risk is required; in other areas, the approach is more implicit and reliant on professional judgement. This paper presents an overview of the application of risk assessment in the Environment Agency and a summary of recent policy and regulatory drivers. It introduces some emerging issues with respect to current practice in environmental risk assessment.

A Simplified Conjoint Expected Risk (SCER: Holtgrave and Weber, 1993) model-based approach was used to explore differences in the perceived risk of a variety of financial and health activities among Caucasians, African-Americans, Mexican-Americans, and Taiwanese-Americans. The SCER model postulates that the perceived risk of an activity is a function of five dimensions: the subjective probability of harm, benefit, and status quo, and the subjective expected harm and benefit. This model offers a framework in which to apply qualitative and quantitative approaches in order to identify and to assess the generality of ethnic group differences in the relative weight attached to probability and expected outcome information, the subjective valuation of probabilities and expected outcomes, and the perceived harms and benefits. Results demonstrated that the primary and most generalised locus of ethnic group perceived risk differences is the relative importance attached to probability and expected outcome information. As predicted, these differences tended to mirror ethnic group differences in orientation toward uncertainty. By decomposing differences in terms of the elements of the SCER model, these results demonstrate that risk communication and policy efforts in ethnically diverse countries should recognise the role of the relative weight attached to the likelihood and magnitude of harm and benefit in risk perception. Clarifying the bases for differences in perceived risk among ethnic groups may provide a better understanding of conflict over environmental or other issues and aid in the development of effective strategies for communicating about risk and negotiating solutions to important policy problems.

This paper examines the effect of characteristics of the decision situation and of the decision maker on decision processes and outcomes in the context of risky choice. Male and female undergraduate students were presented with decisions from different domains of life. For each decision they indicated the likelihood with which they would use each of five decision modes (i.e., ways of making the decision): by following someone's advice, by weighing pros and cons, by following their intuition, etc. They also chose between two courses of action described for each decision and rated the perceived riskiness of both alternatives. We found that the content domain of the decision and/or the gender (or the interaction of both) of the decision maker influenced decision mode usage, and risk perception, behavior, and preference (derived within a risk-return model of risky choice). These results have implications for educational interventions and decision aids that attempt to influence or change the risky decisions of target populations.