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Estimating local need for mental healthcare to inform fair resource allocation in the NHS in England: cross-sectional analysis of national administrative data linked at person level

  • Laura Anselmi (a1) (a2), Anna Everton (a3), Robert Shaw (a4), Wataru Suzuki (a5), Jeremy Burrows (a2), Richard Weir (a6), Roman Tatarek-Gintowt (a7), Matt Sutton (a8) and Stephen Lorrimer (a9)...

Abstract

Background

Equitable access to mental healthcare is a priority for many countries. The National Health Service in England uses a weighted capitation formula to ensure that the geographical distribution of resources reflects need.

Aims

To produce a revised formula for estimating local need for secondary mental health, learning disability (intellectual disability) and psychological therapies services for adults in England.

Method

We used demographic records for 43 751 535 adults registered with a primary care practitioner in England linked with service use, ethnicity, physical health diagnoses and type of household, from multiple data-sets. Using linear regression, we estimated the individual cost of care in 2015 as a function of individual- and area-level need and supply variables in 2013 and 2014. We sterilised the effects of the supply variables to obtain individual-need estimates. We aggregated these by general practitioner practice, age and gender to derive weights for the national capitation formula.

Results

Higher costs were associated with: being 30–50 years old, compared with 20–24; being Irish, Black African, Black Caribbean or of mixed ethnicity, compared with White British; having been admitted for specific physical health conditions, including drug poisoning; living alone, in a care home or in a communal environment; and living in areas with a higher percentage of out-of-work benefit recipients and higher prevalence of severe mental illness. Longer distance from a provider was associated with lower cost.

Conclusions

The resulting needs weights were higher in more deprived areas and informed the distribution of some 12% (£9 bn in 2019/20) of the health budget allocated to local organisations for 2019/20 to 2023/24.

Declaration of interest

None.

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Copyright

This is an Open Access article, distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution licence (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted re-use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

Corresponding author

Correspondence: Laura Anselmi, Health Organisation, Policy and Economics (HOPE), Centre for Primary Care and Health Services Research, University of Manchester, Manchester M13 9PL, UK. Email: laura.anselmi@manchester.ac.uk

References

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Estimating local need for mental healthcare to inform fair resource allocation in the NHS in England: cross-sectional analysis of national administrative data linked at person level

  • Laura Anselmi (a1) (a2), Anna Everton (a3), Robert Shaw (a4), Wataru Suzuki (a5), Jeremy Burrows (a2), Richard Weir (a6), Roman Tatarek-Gintowt (a7), Matt Sutton (a8) and Stephen Lorrimer (a9)...
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