Hostname: page-component-78c5997874-m6dg7 Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-11-07T20:18:42.247Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false

A Geographic Incremental Theory of Democratization: Territory, Aid, and Democracy in Postcommunist Regions

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  13 June 2011

Tomila V. Lankina
Affiliation:
De Montfort University
Lullit Getachew
Affiliation:
Pacific Economics Group in Madison
Get access

Abstract

The article examines the impact of geographical proximity to the West and of Western aid on democracy in Russia's regions and advances a geographic incrementalist theory of democratization. Even when national politicians exhibit authoritarian tendencies, diffusion processes and targeted foreign aid help advance democratization at the subnational level in postcommunist states and other settings. The authors make this case by conducting process-tracing case studies of democratic institution building in two northwestern border regions and statistical analysis of over one thousand projects that the European Union carried out in Russia's localities over fourteen years. They find that the EU shows commitment to democratic reform particularly in, but not limited to, regions located on its eastern frontier. Over time, this, as well as diffusion processes from the West, positively affects the democratic trajectory of the respective regions even if they had been more closed to begin with compared to other regions.

Type
Research Article
Copyright
Copyright © Trustees of Princeton University 2006

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

1 Kopstein, Jeffrey S. and Reilly, David A., “Geographic Diffusion and the Transformation of the Postcommunist World,” World Politics 53 (October 2000)CrossRefGoogle Scholar.

2 Freedom House, Nations in Transit, 2004, http://www.freedomhouse.org/template.cfm?page=17&year=2004 (accessed September 20, 2006).

3 Mendelson, Sarah E. and Glenn, John K., eds., The Power and Limits ofNGOS: A Critical Look at Building Democracy in Eastern Europe and Eurasia (New York: Columbia University Press, 2002)CrossRefGoogle Scholar.

4 Kopstein and Reilly (fn. 1).

5 Pipes, Richard, “Flight from Freedom: What Russians Think and Want,” Foreign Affairs 83 (May-June 2004), 13, 15CrossRefGoogle Scholar.

6 Snyder, Richard, “Scaling Down: The Subnational Comparative Method,” Studies in Comparative International Development 36 (Spring 2001)CrossRefGoogle Scholar.

7 On external-domestic actor interactions, see Risse-Kappen, Thomas, “Introduction,” in Bringing Transnational Relations Back In: Non-State Actors, Domestic Structures, and International Institutions (New York: Cambridge University Press, 1995)CrossRefGoogle Scholar; and Putnam, Robert D., “Diplomacy and Domestic Politics: The Logic of Two-Level Games,” International Organization 42 (Summer 1988)CrossRefGoogle Scholar.

8 O'Donnell, Guillermo, Schmitter, Philippe C., and Whitehead, Laurence, “Tentative Conclusions about Uncertain Democracies,” in O'Donnell, Guillermo, Schmitter, Philippe C., and Whitehead, Laurence eds., Transitions from Authoritarian Rule (Baltimore: Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars and Johns Hopkins University Press, 1986), 18Google Scholar.

9 See, for example, Brown, Archie, “Transnational Influences in the Transition from Communism,” Post-Soviet Affairs 16 (April 2000)Google Scholar; Whitehead, Laurence, ed., The International Dimensions of Democratization: Europe and the Americas (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2001)CrossRefGoogle Scholar; Giuseppe di Palma, “Legitimation from the Top to Civil Society: Politico-Cultural Change in Eastern Europe,” World Politics 44 (October 1991); Grzegorz Ekiert and Jan Kubik, “Contentious Politics in New Democracies: East Germany, Hungary, Poland, and Slovakia, 1989–93,” World Politics 50 (July 1998), 550.

10 Nye, Joseph Jr., “The Decline of America's Soft Power: Why Washington Should Worry,” Foreign Affairs 83 (May 2004)CrossRefGoogle Scholar; Anheier, Helmut, Glasius, Marlies, and Kaldor, Mary, eds., Global Civil Society (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2002)Google Scholar; Thomas, Daniel C., The Helsinki Effect: International Norms, Human Rights and the Demise of Communism (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 2001)Google Scholar; Keck, Margaret E. and Sikkink, Kathryn, Activists Beyond Borders: Advocacy Networks in International Politics (Ithaca, N.Y.: Cornell University Press, 1998)Google Scholar; Risse-Kappen, Thomas, Ropp, Stephen C., and Sikkink, Kathryn, eds., The Power ofHuman Rights: International Norms and Domestic Change (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1999)CrossRefGoogle Scholar; Moravcsik, Andrew, “The Origins of Human Rights Regimes: Democratic Delegation in Postwar Europe,” International Organization 54 (Spring 2000)CrossRefGoogle Scholar.

11 For transitology debates, see Schmitter, Philippe C. and Karl, Terry Lynn, “The Conceptual Travels of Transitologists and Consolidologists: How Far to the East Should They Attempt to Go?” Slavic Review 53 (Spring 1994)CrossRefGoogle Scholar; Schmitter, Philippe C. and Karl, Terry Lynn, “From an Iron Curtain to a Paper Curtain: Grounding Transitologists or Students of Postcommunism?” Slavic Review 54 (Winter 1995)Google Scholar; Cohen, Stephen F., “Russian Studies without Russia,” Post-Soviet Affairs 15 (January 1999)Google Scholar; Brown (fn. 9); Bunce, Valerie, “Comparative Democratization: Big and Grounded Generalizations,” Comparative Political Studies 33 (August 2000)CrossRefGoogle Scholar; idem, “Lessons of the First Postsocialist Decade,” East European Politics and Societies 13 (Spring 1999)Google Scholar; idem, “The Political Economy of Postsocialism,” Slavic Review 58 (Winter 1999)Google Scholar; idem, “Regional Differences in Democratization: The East versus the South,” Post-Soviet Affairs 14 (July 1998)Google Scholar; idem, “Rethinking Recent Democratization: Lessons from the Postcommunist Experience,” World Politics 55 (January 2003)Google Scholar; Shin, Doh Chull, “On The Third Wave of Democratization: A Synthesis and Evaluation of Recent Theory and Research,” World Politics 47 (October 1994)CrossRefGoogle Scholar; Bunce, Valerie, “Should Transitologists be Grounded?” Slavic Review 54 (Spring 1995)CrossRefGoogle Scholar; Wiarda, Howard J., “Southern Europe, Eastern Europe, and Comparative Politics: ‘Transitology’ and the Need for New Theory,” East European Politics and Societies 15 (Fall 2001)CrossRefGoogle Scholar; Diamond, Larry and Plattner, Mark F., eds., Democracy after Communism (Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press, 2002)Google Scholar; King, Charles, “Post-Postcommunism: Transition, Comparison, and the End of ‘Eastern Europe,’” World Politics 53 (October 2000)CrossRefGoogle Scholar; Carothers, Thomas, “The End of the Transition Paradigm,” Journal of Democracy 13 (January 2002)CrossRefGoogle Scholar; Gans-Morse, Jordan, “Searching for Transitologists: Contemporary Theories of Post-Communist Transitions and the Myth of a Dominant Paradigm,” Post-Soviet Affairs 20 (October-December 2004)CrossRefGoogle Scholar.

12 Snyder (fn. 6).

13 The other elements in his typology being “control” and “consent.” Laurence Whitehead, “Three International Dimensions of Democratization,” in Whitehead (fn. 9), 15.

14 Philippe C. Schmitter, “The Influence of the International Context upon the Choice of National Institutions and Policies in Neo-Democracies,” in Whitehead (fn. 9).

15 Whitehead (fn. 13), 21.

16 Schmitter (fn. 14), 35.

17 Ibid., 38.

18 Ibid., 28.

19 Linz, Juan J. and Stepan, Alfred, Problems of Democratic Transition and Consolidation: Southern Europe, South America, and Post-Communist Europe (Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press, 1996), 74Google Scholar.

20 Wiarda (fn. 11), 487.

21 Przeworski, Adam, Democracy and the Market (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1991), 191CrossRefGoogle Scholar. With respect to Eastern Europe, though, he writes that geography is the main reason why it should succeed in joining the West (p. 190).

22 Przeworski, Adam, Alvarez, Michael A., Cheibub, Jose Antonio, and Limongi, Fernando, “What Makes Democracies Endure?” in Diamond, Larry and Plattner, Marc F., eds., The Global Divergence of Democracies (Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press, 2000), 171Google Scholar.

23 For theories of postcommunist democracy, see Anderson, Richard, Postcommunism and the Theory of Democracy (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 2001)Google Scholar.

24 Fish, M. Steven, “Post-Communist Subversion: Social Science and Democratization in East Europe and Eurasia,” Slavic Review 58 (Winter 1999), 794CrossRefGoogle Scholar.

25 Bunce (fn. 11, 2003).

26 Bunce (fn. 11, 1999), 759, 767.

27 McFaul, Michael, “The Fourth Wave of Democracy and Dictatorship: Noncooperative Transitions in the Postcommunist World,” World Politics 54 (January 2002), 242CrossRefGoogle Scholar. On East-West variations in civil society development, see Kubik, Ian, “How to Study Civil Society: The State of the Art and What to do Next,” East European Politics and Societies 19 (Winter 2005), 100CrossRefGoogle Scholar.

28 Kopstein and Reilly (fn. 1).

29 Fish, M. Steven, “Democratization's Requisites: The Postcommunist Experience,” Post-Soviet Affairs 14 (July 1998), 233, 228Google Scholar.

30 Fish (fn. 24), 794.

31 Ibid., 797, emphasis added. On assessing the impact of external factors, see also Breslauer, George W., “The Impact of the International Environment: Theoretical and Methodological Considerations,” in Dawisha, Karen, ed., The International Dimension ofPost-Communist Transitions in Russia and the New States of Eurasia (Armonk, N.Y.: Sharpe, 1997), 7Google Scholar.

32 But see Cecilia Chessa, “State Subsidies, International Diffusion, and Transnational Civil Society: The Case of Frankfurt-Oder and Subice,” East European Politics and Societies (February 2004); Hughes, James, Sasse, Gwendolyn, and Gordon, Claire, “Saying ‘Maybe’ to the ‘Return to Europe’: Elites and the Political Space for Euroscepticism,” European Union Politics 3 (2002)CrossRefGoogle Scholar; and Hale, Henry E. and Taagepera, Rein, “Russia: Consolidation or Collapse?” Europe-Asia Studies 54 (November 2002)CrossRefGoogle Scholar. For scholarship on geography as it relates to other aspects of postcommunist transformation, see Bradshaw, Michael and Prendergrast, Jessica, “The Russian Heartland Revisited: An Assessment of Russia's Transformation,” Eurasian Geography and Economics 46 (March 2005)CrossRefGoogle Scholar; Treivish, Andrei, “A New Russian Heartland: The Demographic and Economic Dimension” Eurasian Geography and Economics 46 (March 2005)CrossRefGoogle Scholar; Lynn, Nicholas J., “Geography and Transition: Reconceptualizing Systemic Change in the Former Soviet Union,” Slavic Review 58 (Winter 1999)CrossRefGoogle Scholar; and Hill, Fiona and Gaddy, Clifford G., The Siberian Curse: How Communist Planners Left Russia out in the Cold (Washington, D.C.: Brookings Institution Press, 2003)Google Scholar.

33 Rustow, Dunkwart A., “Transitions to Democracy: Toward a Dynamic Model,” Comparative Politics 2 (April 1970)CrossRefGoogle Scholar.

34 Roeder, Philip G., “People and States after 1989: The Political Costs of Incomplete National Revolutions,” Slavic Review 58 (Winter 1999)CrossRefGoogle Scholar; Bahry, Donna, “The New Federalism and the Paradoxes of Regional Sovereignty in Russia,” Comparative Politics 37 (January 2005)CrossRefGoogle Scholar; Beissinger, Mark R., “How Nationalisms Spread: Eastern Europe Adrift the Tides and Cycles of Nationalist Contention,” Social Research 63 (Spring 1996)Google Scholar; idem, “Nationalist Violence and the State: Political Authority and Contentious Repertoires in the Former USSR,” Comparative Politics 30 (July 1998)Google Scholar; Leff, Carol Skalnik, “Democratization and Disintegration in Multinational States: The Breakup of the Communist Federations,” World Politics 51 (January 1999)CrossRefGoogle Scholar; Gorenburg, Dmitry, “Not with One Voice: An Explanation of Intragroup Variation in Nationalist Sentiment,” World Politics 53 (October 2000)CrossRefGoogle Scholar; Laitin, David D., Identity in Formation: The Russian-Speaking Populations in the Near Abroad (Ithaca, N.Y.: Cornell University Press, 1998)Google Scholar; Treisman, Daniel, “Russia's 'Ethnic Revival': The Separatist Activism of Regional Leaders in a Postcommunist Order',” World Politics 49 (January 1997)CrossRefGoogle Scholar; Bunce, Valerie, Subversive Institutions: The Design and the Destruction of Socialism and the State (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1999)CrossRefGoogle Scholar; King, Charles, “The Benefits of Ethnic War: Understanding Eurasia's Unrecognized States,” World Politics 53 (July 2001)CrossRefGoogle Scholar; Hale, Henry E., “Divided We Stand: Institutional Sources of Ethnofederal State Survival and Collapse,” WorldPolitics 56 (January 2004)Google Scholar; Giuliano, Elise, “Who Determines the Self in the Politics of Self-Determination: Identity and Preference Formation in Tatarstan's Nationalist Mobilization,” Comparative Politics 32 (April 2000)CrossRefGoogle Scholar; Gorenburg, Dmitry, Minority Ethnic Mobilization in the Russian Federation (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2003)CrossRefGoogle Scholar.

35 Snyder (fn. 6), 101, 98.

36 Snyder, Richard, “After Neoliberalism:The Politics of Reregulation in Mexico,” World Politics 51 (January 1999), 202CrossRefGoogle Scholar.

37 Fox, Jonathan, “Latin America's Emerging Local Politics,” Journal of Democracy 5 (April 1994)CrossRefGoogle Scholar; O'Donnell, Guillermo, Counterpoints: Selected Essays on Authoritarianism and Democratization (Notre Dame, Ind.: University of Notre Dame Press, 1999)Google Scholar.

38 Heller, Patrick, “Degrees of Democracy: Some Comparative Lessons from India,” World Politics 52 (July 2000), 517CrossRefGoogle Scholar.

39 Putnam, Robert, Making Democracy Work: Civic Traditions in Modern Italy (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1993)Google Scholar. See also Linz, Juan J. and Miguel, Amando de, “Within-Nation Differences and Comparisons: Th e Eight Spains,” in Merritt, R. L. and Rokkan, S., eds., Comparing Nations: The Use of Quantitative Data in Cross-National Research (New Haven: Yale University Press, 1966)Google Scholar.

40 Golosov, Grigorii, Political Parties in the Regions ofRussia: Democracy Unclaimed (Boulder, Colo.: Lynne Rennier, 2004)Google Scholar; Hale, Henry, “Why Not Parties? Electoral Markets, Party Substitutes, and Stalled Democratization in Russia,” Comparative Politics 37 (January 2005)CrossRefGoogle Scholar; Lankina, Tomila V., Governing the Locals: Local Self-Government and Ethnic Mobilization in Russia (Lanham, Md.: Rowman and Littlefield, 2004)Google Scholar; Stoner-Weiss, Kathryn, Local Heroes: The Political Economy ofRussian Regional Governance (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1997)Google Scholar; Hahn, Jeffrey W., “How Democratic Are Local Russian Deputies?” in Saivetz, Carol R. and Jones, Anthony, eds., In Search ofPluralism: Soviet and Post-Soviet Politics (Boulder, Colo.: Westview, 1994)Google Scholar; Henderson, Sarah L., Building Democracy in Contemporary Russia: Western Supportfor Grassroots Organizations (Ithaca, N.Y.: Cornell University Press, 2003)Google Scholar; Orttung, Robert W., From Leningrad to St. Petersburg: Democratization in a Russian City (New York: St. Martin's, 1995)Google Scholar; Mendras, Marie, “How Regional Elites Preserve Their Power,” Post-SovietAffairs 15 (1999)Google Scholar; Petrov, Nikolai, “Regional Models of Democratic Development,” in McFaul, Michael, Petrov, Nikolai, and Ryabov, Andrei, eds., Between Dictatorship and Democracy: Russian Post-Communist PoliticalReform (Washington, D.C.: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 2005)Google Scholar; Gelman, Vladimir, Ryzhenkov, Sergei, Brie, Michael, Ovchinnikov, Boris, and Semenov, Igor, Making and Breaking Democratic Transitions: The Comparative Politics ofRussia's Regions (Lanham, Md.: Row man and Littlefield, 2003)Google Scholar; Petro, Nicolai N., Crafting Democracy: How NovgorodHas Copedwith Rapid Social Change (Ithaca, N.Y: Cornell University Press, 2004)Google Scholar.

41 Petrov (fn. 40).

42 On external and subnational interactions, see Duchacek, Ivo D., “Perforated Sovereignties: Towards a Typology of New Actors in International Relations,” in Michelmann, Hans J. and Soldatos, Panayotis, eds., Federalism and International Relations: The Role of Subnational Units (Oxford: Claren-don, 1990)Google Scholar. On how regionalism relates to globalization, see also Hooghe, Liesbet and Marks, Gary, “Multi-Level Governance and European Integration,” in Marks, Gary, ed., Governance in Europe (Lanham, Md.: Rowman and Littlefield, 2001)Google Scholar.

43 For a discussion, see Keating, Michael, “Regions and International Affairs: Motives, Opportunities and Strategies,” in Aldecoa, Francisco and Keating, Michael, eds., Paradiplomacy in Action: The Foreign Relations ofSubnational Governments (London: Frank Cass, 1999)Google Scholar.

44 Deutsch, Karl W., Political Community at the International Level: Problems ofDefinition and Measurement (Garden City, N.Y.: Doubleday, 1954)Google Scholar. See also Habermas, Jürgen, “Toward a Cosmopolitan Europe,” Journal ofDemocracy 14 (October 2003)Google Scholar.

45 Vachudova, Milada, Europe Undivided: Democracy, Leverage, and Integration after Communism (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2005)CrossRefGoogle Scholar.

46 Kopstein and Reilly (fn. 1). Kopstein and Reilly also include a reference to “circumstance,” which in addition to “choice” has an impact on flows.

47 Ibid., 13.

48 Ibid., 15.

49 Ibid., 18.

50 Ibid., 21.

51 Data on international tourism for the regions were not available from Goskomstat.

52 This is based on Moscow Carnegie Center's project on sociopolitical monitoring of the regions and modeled on Freedom House surveys of democracy Petrov (fn. 40), 242–47. Results compiled by Nikolay Petrov and Aleksey Titkov are available from the Web site of the Independent Institute of Social Politics, http://atlas.socpol.ru/indexes/index_democr.shtml (accessed September 20, 2006). The moving-average time periods were also selected to correspond with the federal electoral cycles for the periods of 1999–2003 and 2000–2004.

53 Fan, Jianquing and Yao, Qiwei, Nonlinear Time Series: Nonparametric andParametric Methods (New York: Springer, 2003), 217CrossRefGoogle Scholar; http://members.aol.com/wsiler/chap13.htm (accessed July 15, 2006).

54 The scores for democratization or democracy as applied to regional contexts were used in relative terms. Petrov's method does not imply that regions at the top of the ranking are necessarily democracies, but that relative to other regions they have higher levels of political pluralism, electoral competitiveness, media freedom, economic liberalization, civil society, judicial independence, elite turnover, and so forth. “Competitive authoritarianism” may capture well the political processes in many of Russia's regions. Levitsky, Steven and Way, Lucan A., “Competitive Authoritarianism: Hybrid Regime Change in Peru and Ukraine in Comparative Perspective,” Studies in Public Policy 355 (Glasgow: University of Strathclyde, 2001)Google Scholar.

55 I.e., allowing a one-year lag. For summary statistics, see Appendix 3. The bivariate correlation matrix with all variables used in the analysis in the paper is in Appendix 5.

56 Kopstein and Reilly (fn. 1), 28–30.

57 Colton, Timothy J. and McFaul, Michael, Popular Choice and Managed Democracy: The Russian Elections of1999 and2000 (Washington, D.C.: Brookings Institution Press, 2003)Google Scholar.

58 See Communication from the Commission to the Council and the European Parliament on Relations with Russia, February 9, 2004, http://ec.europa.eu/comm/extemal_relations/russia/russia_docs/com04_106_en.pdf (accessed September 20, 2006). See also Gowan, David, How the EU Can Help Russia (London: Centre for European Reform, 2000), 4344Google Scholar. “The EU spends a large share of overall aid on democratic assistance. In 1990–99, it amounted to 19 percent. Mendelson and Glenn (fn. 3), 6.

60 See http://europa.eu.int/comm/external_relations/russia/intro/ (accessed February 15, 2006). See Appendix 7 for a discussion of the democracy component of EU aid.

61 Haukkala, Hiski, “The Relevance of Norms and Values in the EU's Russia Policy,” Working Paper 5 (Helsinki: Finnish Institute of International Affairs, 2005), 5Google Scholar.

62 Concept employed in Henrikson, Alan, “Facing across Borders: The Diplomacy of Bon Voisin-age,” International Political Science Review 21 (April 2000)CrossRefGoogle Scholar. For a list of top-10 EU regional projects participant countries, refer to Appendix 8.

63 Diez, Thomas, “Europe as a Discursive Battleground: Discourse Analysis and European Integration Studies,” Cooperation and Conflict 36 (March 2001), 11CrossRefGoogle Scholar. On Nordicness, see Jukarainen, Pirjo, “Norden Is Dead—Long Live the Eastwards Faced Euro-North: Geopolitical Remaking of Nor-den in a Nordic Journal,” Cooperation and Conflict 34 (December 1999)CrossRefGoogle Scholar. On Nordic discourse, see Browning, Christopher S., “Coming Home or Moving Home?” Westernizing Narratives in Finnish Foreign Policy and the Reinterpretation of Past Identities,” Cooperation and Conflict 37 (March 2002)CrossRefGoogle Scholar; Viatcheslav Morozov, “Russia in the Baltic Sea Region: Desecuritization or Deregionalization?” Cooperation and Conflict 39 (September 2004). On the role of Nordic states in world affairs, see Ingebritsen, Christine, “Norm Entrepreneurs: Scandinavia's Role in World Politics,” Cooperation and Conflict 37 (March 2002)CrossRefGoogle Scholar.

64 While border is “an unambiguous concept referring to territorial, geographic and recognizable borders of the union denned by membership,” the “boundaries differ as the extension of boundaries does not require widening the union but application of governance patterns below the membership line.” Filtenborg, Mette Sicard, Gaenzle, Stefan, and Johansson, Elisabeth, “An Alternative Theoretical Approach to EU Foreign Policy: ‘Network Governance’ and the Case of the Northern Dimension Initiative,” Cooperation and Conflict 37 (December 2002), 394, 389CrossRefGoogle Scholar.

65 Reference to an article that appeared in Helsingin Sanomat. Browning (fn. 63), 57. “The Wild East” reference also appeared in the book by Sergeev, Victor M., The Wild East: Crime and Lawlessness in Post-Communist Russia (London: Sharpe, 1998)Google Scholar.

66 See http://europa.eu.int/comm/world/enp/policy_en.htm (accessed February 11,2005). On the Northern Dimension, see Christopher S. Browning, “Competing or Complementary Policies? Understanding the Relationship between the NEI and NDI,” Working Paper, (Copenhagen: Copenhagen Peace Research Institute, 2002); and Lange, Peer H., “Die Nordliche Dimension: Europaische Energie Versorgung und Sicherheit,” Internationale Politik 1 (January 2001)Google Scholar. The U.S. under Clinton came up with a similar initiative. See Browning, Christopher S., “A Multi-Dimensional Approach to Regional Cooperation: The EU States and the Northern European Initiative,” European Security 10 (Winter 2001)CrossRefGoogle Scholar. On approaches to security in the region, see Archer, Clive, “Nordic Swans and Baltic Cygnets,” Cooperation and Conflict 34 (March 1999)CrossRefGoogle Scholar; Mouritzen, Hans, “Security Communities in the Baltic Sea Region,” Security Dialogue 32 (September 2001)CrossRefGoogle Scholar; Spanger, Hans-Joachim, “Moral versus Interesse? Die Ambivalenz westlicher Demokratiehilfe fur Rufiland,” Osteuropa 52 (July 2002)Google Scholar.

67 http://europa.eu.int/comm/external_relations/consultations/cswp_tacis.htm (accessed February 15,2006). For an in-depth analysis of EU aid motives in Russia's regions as they relate to other factors, such as foreign investment, see Lankina, Tomila V., “Explaining European Union Aid to Russia,” Post-SovietAffairs 21 (December 2005)Google Scholar.

68 On geographic conceptions of Europe, see Webber, Mark, ed., Russia and Europe: Conflict or Cooperation? (London: Macmillan, 2000)CrossRefGoogle Scholar; Newmann, Iver B., Russia and the Idea ofEurope:A Study in Identity and International Relations (London: Routledge, 1996)CrossRefGoogle Scholar; idem, Uses of the Other: The “East” in European Identity Formation (Minneapolis: University of Minnesota Press, 1999)Google Scholar; Wallace, William, “From the Atlantic to the Bug, from the Arctic to the Tigris? The Transformation of the EU and NATO,” InternationalAffairs 76 (July 2000)Google Scholar; Baranovsky, Vladimir, “Russia: A Part of Europe or Apart from Europe?” International Affairs 76 (July 2000)CrossRefGoogle Scholar.

69 The first projects were conducted in 1992. Numbers of projects conducted by year: 1992: 31; 1993: 49; 1994: 81; 1995: 88; 1996: 90; 1997: 108; 1998: 135; 1999: 91; 2000: 53; 2001: 119; 2002: 124; 2003: 89; 2004: 58; and 2005: 2. Source: compiled by author from project data available from http://62.38.207.105/tacis/en/index.asphttp://www.tacis-lso-rf.org/en/objectives.asp (accessed No -vember 15, 2005). Project data for 2003–5 suggest that there have been fewer projects. Alexander Berdino, head of the Petrozavodsk LSO maintained that there is often a time lag before data on projects i n a given LSO are added to the TACIS Web site database. His data for the Petrozavodsk LSO show that projects running in 2004—5 (18) are consistent with averages for the last years. TACIS funding instruments for Russia are currently being restructured; however, these changes would not be reflected in the 2003—5 data because the projects had been approved earlier. Author interview with Alexander Berdino, Petrozavodsk, January 18, 2006

70 Petrov (fn. 40). Aspects of democratic development, such as openness and capacity of NGOs, are often themselves products of Western aid. Henderson (fn. 40); Mendelson and Glenn (fn. 3); Lisa Mclntosh Sundstrom, “Strength from Without? Transnational Actors and NG O Development i n Russia” (Ph.D. diss., Stanford University, 2001); author interview wit h Venedikt Dostovalov and Nadezhda Donovskaya, NGO Veche, Pskov, August 27,2004. Other studies also found similar patterns of aid going to areas that are relatively well off. Biekart, Kees, The Politics of Civil Society Building: European Private Aid Agencies and Democratic Transitions in Central America (Utrecht, Netherlands: International Books, 1999), 298Google Scholar.

71 On aid motives, see Jupille, Joseph, Caporaso, James A., and Checkel, Jeffrey T., “Integrating Institutions: Rationalism, Constructivism, and the Study of the European Union,” Comparative Political Studies 36 (February-March 2003)CrossRefGoogle Scholar; Schimmelfennig, Frank, “Strategic Interaction in a Community Environment: The Decision to Enlarge the EU to the East,” Comparative Political Studies 36 (February-March 2003)CrossRefGoogle Scholar; and Schraeder, Peter J., Hook, Steven W., and Taylor, Bruce, “Clarifying the Foreign Aid Puzzle: A Comparison of American, Japanese, French, and Swedish Aid Flows,” World Politics 50 (January 1998)CrossRefGoogle Scholar.

72 Petrov (fn. 40). On Islam and political authority patterns worldwide, see Fish, M. Steven, “Islam and Authoritarianism,” World Politics 55 (October 2002)CrossRefGoogle Scholar.

73 Aginsk-Buryatsk, Komy-Permyak, Nenetsk, Taymyr-Dolgano-Nenetsk, Ust-Orda-Buryat, Evenk, Yamalo-Nenetsk, Khanty-Mansiysk, Koryak Autonomous Districts.

74 Glenn W. Harrison, “House Money Effects in Public Good Experiments: Comment,” Experimental Economics, forthcoming (April 2006), 6, fn. 7.

75 The two-year lag with moving average aid has the highest coefficient among our aid measures. This bolsters our finding that aid allocated in later years might be a better predictor of democratic outcomes than that allocated in earlier years. Likewise, later openness indicators might be better predictors of democracy than measures going back further in time, though due to data limitations stemming from only two time points for the democracy score, caution should be exercised in making inferences about the respective temporal lags. For illustrative purposes, results from an OLS regression with two-year lags are presented in Appendix 4.

76 Parts of what is now the Republic of Karelia formerly belonging to Finland were incorporated into the USSR during the 1939–44 Soviet-Finnish wars.

77 After St. Petersburg and Sverdlovsk oblasts. Petrov (fn. 40). It was also found to have some of the lowest reported occurrence of corruption among Russian regions. Dminio, Phyllis and Orttung, Robert, “Explaining Patterns of Corruption in the Russian Regions,” World Politics 57 (July 2005)Google Scholar.

78 http://www.gov.karelia.ru/gov/News/2004/02/0224_11.html (accessed February 21,2005).

79 Biography available at http://www.gov.karelia.ru/gov/Power/Ministry/Relations/shlamin_e.html (accessed February 21, 2005).

80 The ministry was disbanded subsequently and Shlyamin now works in Finland.

81 Ilkka Liikanen, “Euregio Karelia: A Model for Cross-Border Cooperation with Russia?” Karelian Institute, University ofjoensuu. http://www.iiss.org/rrpfreepdfs.php?scID=65 (accessed June 5, 2005).

82 Henderson (fn. 40), 152.

83 It also has representative offices of the Nordic Council of Ministers, the Swedish-Karelian Business and Information Centre, and TACIS.

84 http://www.gov.karelia.ru (accessed May 15, 2005).

85 Author interview with Tat'yana Klekachova, executive director, Swedish-Karelian Business and Information Center, Petrozavodsk, July 9, 2004.

86 Vladimir Gel'man, Sergei Ryzhenkov, Yelena Belokurova, and Nadezhda Borisova, Avtonomiya Hi kontrol'? Reforma mestnoy vlasti v gorodakh Rossii, 1991–2001 [Autonomy or control? Reform of local power in cities of Russia], (St. Petersburg: Letniy sad, 2002), 245, 230, 231. On civil society in Karelia, see Yelena Belokurova and Natalya Yargomskaya, “Do i posle Grazhdanskogo foruma: grazh-danskoye obshchestvo v regionakh Severo-Zapada,” in Nikolay Petrov, ed., Grazhdanskoye obshchestvo i politicheskiyeprotsessy v regionakh, Working Paper 3 (Moscow: Moscow Carnegie Center, 2005).

87 Author interview with Andrey Patsinkovskiy, head of administration, Prionezhskiy rayon, Petro-zavodsk, January 17, 2006.

88 RFE/RL Newsline, November 9,1998.

89 Pskov also differed from its other neighbor Novgorod, since the mid-1990s a magnet for investors and donors.

90 Gulnara Roll, Tatiana Maximova, and Eero Mikenberg, “The External Relations of the Pskov Region of the Russian Federation,” Working Paper 63 (Kiel, Germany: Schleswig-Holstein Institute for Peace Research) http://www.schiff.uni-kiel.de/pdf_files/063.pdf (accessed February 15,2006).

91 Author interview with Olga Vassilenko, chairperson, NGO Chudskoe Project, Pskov, August 26, 2004. Another unsuccessful applicant in 1998 was the Fund for Support of Civic Initiative. Author interview with Dmitriy Antoniuk, Pskov, August 26, 2004.

92 Author interview with Andrey Balandin, consultant, Committee for Foreign Affairs, Pskov Region Administration, August 26, 2004.

93 http://www.pskov.ru/en/economics/external_constraint (accessed February 15, 2006).

94 Author interview with Valentina Chaplinskaya, EC delegation in St. Petersburg, July 13, 2004.

95 Belokurova and Yargomskaya (fn. 86) 27.

96 http://invest.pskov.ru/i_prac.php?action=show&id=1078dang=en (accessed February 15,2006). See also “Baltiyskoye napravleniye: god spustya posle vstupleniya Estonii i Latvii v YeEs,” April 27, 2005, http://pln-pskov.ru/arhiv/pragmatika/22290.html (accessed September 20, 2006).

97 “Interv'yu s gubernatorom,” official Web site of the Pskov oblast administration, November 1, 2005, http://www.pskov.ru/ru/interview/governor/26 (accessed September 20, 2006). These economic processes are linked to broader patterns of economic interaction in the region influenced by EU expansion, such as a surge in Finnish investments into Estonia in the 1990s and competition and labor costs eventually leading Estonian businesses to invest into Pskov.

98 Ibid.

99 Krasnoyarsk also has an eight-point increase in the democracy score, http://atlas.socpol.ru/indexes/index_democr.shtml (accessed September 20, 2006).

100 Kopstein and Reilly (fn. 1), 24.

101 Vachudova (fn. 45); Kopstein and Reilly (fn. 1).

102 Schraeder, Hook, and Taylor (fn. 71).

103 Admittedly, not every Western aid project achieves its intended goals. Carothers, Thomas, Aiding Democracy Abroad: The Learning Curve (Washington, D.C.: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 1999)Google Scholar; Wedel, Janine, Collision and Collusion: The Strange Case of Western Aid to Eastern Europe (New York: St. Martin's Press, 1998)Google Scholar; Henderson, Sarah L., “Selling Civil Society: Western Aid and the Non-Governmental Organization Sector in Russia,” Comparative Political Studies 35 (March 2002)CrossRefGoogle Scholar; Mendelson and Glenn (fn. 3); Weigle, Marcia A., Russia's Liberal Project: State-Society Relations in the Transitionfrom Communism (University Park: Penn State University Press, 1999)Google Scholar.

104 The reference is to a federal law regulating funding to NGOs, adopted in December 2005.

105 This issue has been a subject of conflict between the Karelian government and federal agencies.

106 Huntington, Samuel P., The Clash of Civilizations and the Remaking of World Order (New York: Simon and Schuster, 1996), 139Google Scholar.

107 Mouritzen (fn. 66), 306