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The Religious Roots of Modern International Relations

  • Daniel Philpott (a1)

The Protestant Reformation was a crucial spring of modern international relations. Had it lever occurred, a system of sovereign states would not have arrived, at least not in the form or at he time that it did at the Peace of Westphalia. This is the counterfactual the author seeks to sustain. He first advances an elaborated but qualified defense of the conventional wisdom that Westphalia is the origin of modern international relations. He then accounts for how Protestant deas exerted influence through transforming identities and exercising social power. Structural heories, emphasizing changes in material power, are skeptical of this account. The author roots lis empirical defense of ideas in the strong correlation between Reformation crises and polities' interests in Westphalia. A description of the historical causal pathways running from ideas to political interest then follows. Germany and France are brought as cases to illustrate two of these pathways. Finally, the author shows the evidentiary weakness of alternative structural material explanations.

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1 These include Kratochwil, Friedrich, “Of Systems, Boundaries, and Territoriality: An Inquiry into the Formation of the States System,” World Politics 39 (October 1986); Ruggie, John Gerard, “Territoriality and Beyond: Problematizing Modernity in International Relations,” International Organization 47 (Winter 1993); Bartelson, Jens, A Genealogy of Sovereignty (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1995); and Hall, Rodney Bruce, National Collective Identity: Social Constructs and International Systems (New York: Columbia University Press, 1999). On the works of the constructivists more generally, see Wendt, Alexander, “The Agent-Structure Problem in International Relations Theory,” International Organization 41 (Summer 1987); idem, “Anarchy Is What States Make of It: The Social Construction of Power Politics,” International Organization 46 (Spring 1992); idem, “Collective Identity Formation and the International State,” American Political Science Review 88 (June 1994); Ruggie, John Gerard, “What Makes the World Hang Together? Neo-utilitarianism and the Social Con-structivist Challenge,” International Organization 52 (Autumn 1998); Finnemore, Martha and Sikkink, Kathryn, “International Norm Dynamics and Political Change,” International Organization 52 (Autumn 1998); Checkel, Jeffrey T, “The Constructivist Turn in International Relations Theory,” World Politics 50 (January 1998). For works on sovereignty and its history, see Ruggie, John Gerard, “Continuity and Transformation in the World Polity: Toward a Neorealist Synthesis,” in Keohane, Robert O., ed., Neorealism and Its Critics (New York: Columbia University Press, 1986); Ruggie (fn. 1,1993); Kra-tochwil (fn. 1); Bierksteker, Thomas J. and Weber, Cynthia, eds., State Sovereignty as Social Construct (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1996); Bartelson (fn. 1); Philpott, Daniel, “Sovereignty: An Introduction and Brief History,” Journal of International Affairs 48 (Winter 1995); Krasner, Stephen D., “Sovereignty: An Institutional Perspective,” Comparative Political Studies 21 (April 1988); Hins-ley, F. H., Sovereignty, 2d ed. (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1986); James, Alan, Sovereign State hood (London: Allen and Unwin, 1986); Spruyt, Hendrik, The Sovereign State and Its Competitors (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1994); Thomson, Janice, “State Sovereignty in International Relations: Bridging the Gap between Theory and Empirical Research,” International Studies Quarterly 39 (June 1995); Fowler, Michael Ross and Bunck, Julie Marie, Law, Power, and the Sovereign State (University Park: Penn State Press, 1995); Buzan, Barry, “The Idea of'International System': Theory Meets History,” International Political Science Review 15 (July 1994); Krasner, Stephen, Sovereignty: ganized Hypocrisy (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1999).

2 I refer to these works in fnn. 47–50.

3 Krasner, , “Westphalia and All That,” in Goldstein, Judith and Keohane, Robert O., eds., Ideas and Foreign Policy: Beliefs, Institutions, and Political Change (Ithaca, N.Y.: Cornell University Press, 1993)

4 Gross, Leo, “The Peace of Westphalia, 1648–1948,” American Journal of International Law 42 (January 1948); Morgenthau, Hans, Politics among Nations: The Strugglefor Power and Peace, 6th ed. (New York: Alfred A. Knopf, 1985), 328–30.

5 Sharing my general definition of sovereignty are, among others, Spruyt (fn. 1), 34–36; Ruggie (fn. 1,1993), 148–52; James (fn. 1); Hinsley (fn. 1), 158; Morgenthau (fn. 4), 32–38; Keohane, Robert O., “Sovereignty, Interdependence, and International Institutions,” in Miller, Linda B. and Smith, Michael Joseph, eds., Ideas and Ideals: Essays on Politics in Honor of Stanley Hoffmann (Boulder, Colo.: Westview Press, 1993), 9293; Brierly, J. L., The Law of Nations (New York: Oxford University Press, 1963), 13; Waltz, Kenneth, Theory of International Politics (Lexington, Mass.: Addison-Wesley, 1979), 96. For skeptics of attempts to define sovereignty, see Bartelson (fn. 1); Carr, E. H., The Twenty Years' Crisis (New York: Harper and Row, 1964); Benn, Stanley, “Sovereignty,” Encyclopedia of Philosophy 7 (1967); Oppenheim, L., International Law, vol. 1 (London: Longmans, Green, 1905); Falk, Richard, “Sovereignty,” in Oxford Companion to Politics of the World (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1993).

6 See especially Krasner (fn. 3), 235–64.

7 For a similar view, see Wight, Martin, Systems of States (London: Leicester, 1977); and Tilly, Charles, Coercion, Capital, and European States, AD 990–1992 (Oxford: Basil Blackwell, 1992), 161–83.

8 Reynolds, Susan, Kingdoms and Communities in Western Europe, 900—1300 (Oxford: Clarendon Press, 1984); Poggi, Gianfranco, The Development of the Modern State:A Sociological Introduction (Stan ford, Calif: Stanford University Press, 1978); Duby, Georges, La societe aux XI' etXII' siecles dans la gion maconnaise (Paris: Ecole Pratique des Hautes Etudes, 1953). For a challenge to the consensus among medieval historians that the Middle Ages generally lacked sovereignty, see Fischer, Markus, “Feudal Europe, 800—1300: Communal Discourse and Conflictual Practices,” International Organization 46 (Spring 1992). For responses to Fischer, see Hall, Rodney Bruce and Kratochwil, Friedrich, “Medieval Tales: Neorealist 'Science' and the Abuse of History,” International Organization 47 (Summer 1993); Hall, Rodney Bruce, “Moral Authority as a Power Resource,” International Organization 51 (Autumn 1997). On the nature of political authority during the Middle Ages, see Strayer, J. R., The Medieval Origins of the Modern State (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1970); Strayer, J. R. and Munro, Dana, Middle Ages, 395–1500 (New York: Appleton-Century-Crofts, 1959); Tierney, Brian, Crisis of Church and State (Englewood Cliffs, N.J.: Prentice-Hall, 1964); Mundy, John H., Europe in High Middle Ages, 1150–1309 (New York: Basic Books, 1973); Ullman, Walter, Principles of Govern ment and Politics in the Middle Ages (New York: Barnes and Noble, 1974); Kantorowicz, Ernst, The King's Two Bodies (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1957); Ruggie (fn. 1,1986), 141–48; Spruyt (fn. 1), 34–36; Wilks, Michael, The Problem of Sovereignty in the Middle Ages (Cambridge, U.K.: At the University Press, 1964).

9 Ozment, Steven, The Age of Reform, 1220–1550: An Intellectual and Religious History of Late Mt-dieval and Reformation Europe (New Haven: Yale University Press, 1980), 48; Kann, Robert A., A History of the Habsburg Empire (Berkeley: University of California Press, 1974), 124; Koenigsberger, H. G., The Habsburgs and Europe, 1516–1560 (Ithaca, N.Y.: Cornell University Press, 1971); Berenger, Jean, History of the Habsburg Empire (London: Longman, 1994).

10 On the implosion of the Italian states system, see Wight (fn. 7); Tilly (fn. 7), 77–78. On Charles V's powers, see Kann (fn. 9), 1–24; Koenigsberger (fn. 9); Berenger (fn. 9); Israel, Jonathan, The Dutcb Republic: Its Rise, Greatness, and Fall, 1477–1806 (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1995), 940; Geyl, , The Revolt of the Netherlands, 1555–1609 (London: Williams and Norgate, 1932); Strauss, Gerald, Law, Resistance, and the State: The Opposition to Roman Law in Reformation Germany (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1986); Holborn, Hajo, A History of Modern Germany, vol. 1 (New York: Alfred A. Knopf, 1959); Gagliardo, John, Germany under the Old Regime, 1600–1790 (London: Long mans, 1991); Barraclough, Geoffrey, The Origins of Modern Germany (Oxford: Basil Blackwell, 1947).

11 Koenigsberger (fn. 9); Barraclough (fn. 10), 355–405; Holborn (fn. 10), 284–338.

12 Holborn (fn. 10), 243–46; Barraclough (fn. 10), 371.

13 Osiander, Andreas, The States System of Europe, 1640–1990 (Oxford: Clarendon Press, 1994), 72. For the text of the Treaty of Miinster, see Israel, Fred, ed., Major Peace Treaties in Modern History, 1648–1967 (New York: Chelsea House Publishers, 1967); for the Treaty of Osnabriick, see Parry, Clive, ed., The Consolidated Treaty Series (Dobbs Ferry, N.Y.: Oceana Publications, 1981). On the settlement in general, see Dickmann, Fritz, “Rechtsgedanke und Machtpolitik bei Richelieu: Studienen neu en- deckten Quellen,” Historische Zeitschrift 196 (April 1963); idem, Der Westphaelische Frieden (Münster: Aschendorff, 1965); Dickmann, Fritz et al. , eds., Acta Pads Westphalicae (Münster: Aschendorff Ver lagsbuchhandlung, 1962); Pages, George, The Thirty Years War, trans. Maland, David (New York: Harper and Row, 1970); Parker, Geoffrey, The Thirty Years' War (London: Routledge, Kegan, and Paul, 1997); Polisensky, J. V., The Thirty Years' War, trans. Evans, Robert (Berkeley: University of California Press, 1971); and Rabb, T. K., ed., The Thirty Years' War: Problems of Motive, Extent, and Effect (Boston: D. C. Heath and Company, 1964).

14 On the settlement in general, see Dickmann et al. (fn. 13); Dickmann (fn. 13, 1965 and 1963); {Jages (fn. 13); Parker (fn. 13); Polisensky (fn. 13); and Rabb (fn. 13).

15 Israel (fn. 13), 27; Osiander (fn. 13), 46–47.

16 On the views of the diplomats, see Osiander (fn. 13), 27,41, 77–89; Church, William F., Richelieu and Reason of State (Princeton: Princeton University Press. 1972), 283349; Roberts, Michael, Gustavus Adolphus, 2 vols. (London: Longmans, Green, 1958); idem, Essays in Swedish History (London: Wei denfeld and Nicolson, 1967), 82110; Burckhardt, Carl J., Richelieu and His Age (New York: Harcourt, Brace, and World, 1970); Knecht, Robert, Richelieu (London: Longman, 1991); du Plessis Richelieu, Armand-Jean, The Political Testament of Cardinal Richelieu: The Significant Chapters and Selections, trans. Hill, Henry Bertram (Madison: University of Wisconsin Press, 1981).

17 Exceptional were the imperial circles, regional organizations of princely states that revived in the late seventeenth century and whose members would at times combine their military forces under a single command. But this exception was limited: the strong form of military cooperation was limited largely to the circles of Franconia and Swabia, composed only of small German states, and it lasted only from 1697 to 1714, when states defended themselves against the invasions of Louis XIV. See Wines, Roger, “Imperial Circles, Princely Diplomacy, and Imperial Reform, 1681—1714,” Journal Modern History 39 (March 1967), 2729. More generally, see Kann (fn. 9), 52, 54; Osiander (fn. 13), 46; Barraclough (fn. 10), 381–87; and Gagliardo (fn. 10).

18 Osiander (fn. 13), 40; Holborn (fn. 10), 368–69.

19 Osiander (fn. 13), 40–42.

20 Parker (fn. 13), 196–97; Holborn (fn. 10); Barraclough (fn. 10); Rabb (fn. 13); Maland, David, Europe in the Seventeenth Century (London: Macmillan, 1966); Holsti, Kalevi, Peace and War: Armed Conflicts and International Order, 1648–1989 (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1991), 4659.

21 Holsti (fn. 20), 46–59; Osiander (fn. 13), 49; Barraclough (fn. 10), 381–87.

22 On recognition practices, see Lauterpacht, H., Recognition in International Law (Cambridge, U.K.: At the University Press, 1947).

23 See Vincent, R. J., Non-intervention in International Order (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1974).

24 For historians, see Holborn (fn. 10); and Barraclough (fn. 10). For social scientists who acknowledge the influence of the Reformation and treat it briefly, see Porter, Bruce, War and the Rise of the State (New York: Free Press, 1994), 6869; and Hall (fn. 1), 51–67. Other scholars mention the role of other nonmaterial factors such as philosophical discourses, property rights, and the rise of Roman law. See Ruggie (fn. 1,1993); and Bartelson (fn. 1).

25 On these criteria, see Tetlock, Philip E. and Belkin, Aaron, “Counterfactual Thought Experiments in World Politics,” in Tetlock, Philip E. and Belkin, Aaron, eds., Counterfactual Thought Experiments World Politics (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1996), 2125. With regard to the “minimal rewrite-of-history rule,” I will ultimately argue that even structural material forces were themselves shaped in part by the Reformation and were thus not independent of it. I claim here only that a world in which they were independent is plausibly imagined and indeed posited by most of the social scientists whom I address.

26 See Tilly (fn. 7).

27 Spruyt (fn. 1), 153–80.

28 On counterfactuals, see Fearon, James D., “Counterfactuals and Hypothesis Testing in Political Science,” World Politics 43 (January 1991); and Tetlock and Belkin (fn. 25).

29 Gary King, Robert O. Keohane, and Sidney Verba refer to this strategy as “making many observations from the few”; see King, , Keohane, , and Verba, , Designing Social Inquiry: Scientific Inference Qualitative Research (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1994), 217–28. Tetlock and Belkin (fn. 25) propose that this method can be used compatibly with and within counterfactuals (pp. 30–31). It meets what they call the “projectability” criterion.

30 March, James G. and Olsen, Johan P., “The Institutional Dynamics of International Political Orders,” International Organization 52 (Autumn 1998), 958.

31 For general accounts of the trend, see Judith Goldstein and Robert O. Keohane, “Ideas and Foreign Policy: An Analytical Framework,” in Goldstein and Keohane (fn. 3); Katzenstein, Peter, ed., The Culture of National Security: Norms and Identity in World Politics (New York: Columbia University, 1996); Hall, Peter, ed., The Political Power of Economic Ideas (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1989); Wendt (fn. 1, 1994 and 1992); Blyth, Mark, “Any More Bright Ideas? The Ideational Turn of Comparative Political Economy,” Comparative Politics 29 (January 1997); Jacobsen, John Kurt, “Much Ado about Ideas: The Cognitive Factor in Economic Policy,” World Politics 47 (January 1995); Mann, Michael, The Sources of Social Power, vol. 1 (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1986). 321 propose my framework as a useful one for explaining the revolution at hand, not as the only process by which ideas operate. For portfolios of pathways and mechanisms, see Goldstein and Keo-hane (fn. 31), 8–26; and Katzenstein (fn. 31), 52—65.1 am not proposing a general theory that denotes the conditions under which ideas will have influence; rather, the argument is a theory of the causes of revolutions in sovereignty (revolutions in ideas) and not one of what causes revolutions in ideas.

33 For a definition of identity, see Ronald L. Jepperson, Alexander Wendt, and Peter J. Katzenstein, “Norms, Identity, and Culture in National Security,” in Katzenstein (fn. 31): “the images of individuality and distinctiveness ('selfhood') held and projected by an actor and formed (and modified over time) through relations with significant 'others'” (p. 59).

34 Shepsle, Kenneth, “Comment,” in Noll, R., ed., Regulatory Policy and the Social Sciences (Berkeley: University of California Press, 1985).

35 Goldstein and Keohane (fn. 31), 16.

36 See Ripley, Brian, “Psychology, Foreign Policy, and International Relations Theory,” Political Psychology 14 (September 1993).

37 On processes of social construction, see Berger, Peter L. and Luckmann, Thomas, The Social Construction of Reality (New York: Doubleday, 1966); Finnemore and Sikkink (fn. 1), 913.

38 Goldstein and Keohane (fn. 31), 17–20; Geoffrey Garrett and Barry R. Weingast, “Ideas, Interests, and Institutions: Constructing the European Community's Internal Market,” in Goldstein and Keohane (fn. 3); Shepsle (fn. 34); for a key source on social power, see also Mann (fn. 31).

39 On intellectual communities, see Adler, Emanuel and Haas, Peter, “Conclusion: Epistemic Communities, World Order, and the Creation of a Reflective Research Program,” International Organization 46 (Winter 1992). On transnational networks, see Sikkink, Kathryn, “Human Rights, Principled Issue Networks, and Sovereignty in Latin America,” International Organization 47 (Summer 1993); and Keck, Margaret and Sikkink, Kathryn, Activists beyond Border's:Advocacy Networks in International Politics (Ithaca, N.Y.: Cornell University Press, 1998). For an example of the influence of publics, see Lumsdaine, David, Moral Vision in International Politics (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1993)

40 On causal pathways, see Goldstein and Keohane (fn. 31), 24–26; and Katzenstein (fn. 31), 52–65 .

41 In the first category, see Bukovansky, Mlada, “American Identity and Neutral Rights from Independence to the War of 1812,” International Organization 51 (Summer 1997); Price, Richard, “Reversing the Gun Sights: Transnational Civil Society Targets Land Mines,” International Organization 52 (Summer 1998); Richard Price and Nina Tannenwald, “Norms and Deterrence: The Nuclear and Chemical Weapons Taboo,” in Katzenstein (fn. 31); Klotz, Audie, Norms in International Relations: The Struggle againstApartheid (Ithaca, N.Y.: Cornell University Press, 1995); Finnemore and Sikkink (fn 1), 898. In the second category, see, for examples, the essays in Goldstein and Keohane (fn. 3); and most of the essays in Katzenstein (fn. 31).

42 See Jepperson, Wendt, and Katzenstein (fa. 33), 58–60.

43 Such versions adopt a variety of strategies, ranging from showing how utility functions are specified by ideas, culture, or psychological schema, to asserting the rationality of the attempts of “norms entrepreneurs” to construct common knowledge and alter others' utility functions in accordance with their commitments, to devising models of how ideas modify the pursuit of rational action as “focal points” or “resolvers of uncertainty,” and to charting the social context of rational action. See Finne-more and Sikkink (fn. 1), 909–15; Goldstein and Keohane (fn. 31), 3–30; Kahler, Miles, “Rationality in International Relations,” International Organization 52 (Autumn 1998), 933–38; March and Olsen (fh. 30), 952–54; Elster, Jon, Nuts and Boltsfor the Social Sciences (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1989); idem, Political Psychology (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1993). For a more skeptical view of the reconcilability of constructivist and rationalist traditions, see Ruggie (fn. 1,1998), 883–85.

44 See the essays in Biersteker and Weber (fn. 1); Jepperson, Wendt, and Katzenstein (fn. 33), 45–46; Ruggie (fn. 1,1993); Ruggie (fn. 1,1998), 870; Wendt (fn. 1,1992), 412–15.

45 Hall (fn. 1), 51–58.

46 Checkel (fn. 1), 340—42; Thomson (fn. 1). See also John Gerard Ruggie's comment that “[s]ocial constructivists in international relations have not yet managed to devise a theory of constitutive rules”; Ruggie (fn. 1,1998), 872.

47 Hintze, Otto, The Historical Essays of Otto Hintze (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1975); Bean, Richard, “War and the Birth of the Nation-State” Journal of Economic History 33 (March 1973); Porter (fn. 24); Tilly (fn. 7). The exception is Hall (fn. 1), who treats the Reformation as an important source of territorial sovereignty. Porter is also a qualified exception here, for he acknowledges the partial explanatory role of the Reformation. See Porter (fn. 24), 68–69. The locus classicus on the military revolution is Roberts (fn. 16,1967), 195—225. An impressive recent work on the long-term political sults of the military revolution is Downing, Brian, The Military Revolution and Political Change (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1992), esp. 56–74. For a critique of the military revolution thesis, see Parker, Geoffrey, “The ‘Military Revolution,’ 1550–1660: A Myth?” Journal of Modern History 48 (June 1976); and idem, The Military Revolution (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1988).

48 North, Douglass C. and Thomas, R. P., The Rise of the Western World (Cambridge: Cambridge Uni versity Press, 1973); Spruyt (fn. 1).

49 Wallerstein, Immanuel, The Modern World System: Capitalist Agriculture and the Origins of the ropean World-Economy in the Sixteenth Century (New York: Academic Press, 1974); Anderson, N. K., “The Reformation in Scandinavia and the Baltic,” in Elton, G. R., ed., The New Cambridge Modern History (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1958).

50 See Kennedy, Paul, The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers: Economic Change and Military Conflict from 1500 to 2000 (New York: Random House, 1987), 3173; Zolberg, Aristide R., “Origins of the Modern World System: A Missing Link,” World Politics 33 (January 1981), 253–58; Dehio, Ludwig, The Precarious Balance, trans. Fulman, Charles (New York: Knopf, 1962); S. H. Steinberg, “The Years War and the Conflict for European Hegemony,” in Rabb (fn. 13); Gilpin, Robert, War and Change in World Politics (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1981).

51 Luther, Martin, The Freedom of a Christian, trans. Lambert, W. A. and ed. Grimm, H. J., in Luther's Works, vol. 31 (Philadelphia: Westminster Press, 1957); idem, Bondage of the Will, trans. Watson, S. and Drewery, Benjamin and ed. Watson, P. S., in Luther's Works, vol. 33 (Philadelphia: Westminster Press, 1972); Skinner, Quentin, The Foundations of Modern Political Thought, vol. 2 (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1978); Cameron, Euan, The European Reformation (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1991), 99198; Oberman, Heiko, Luther: Man between God and the Devil (New Haven: Yale University Press, 1989); Ozment, Steven, Protestants: The Birth of a Revolu tion (New York: Doubleday, 1992), 4386; Bouyer, Louis, The Spirit and Forms of Protestantism (London: Harville Press, 1955).

52 Cameron (fn. SI), 145–55.

53 Ibid., 152–53; Luther, Martin, Whether Soldiers, Too, Can Be Saved, trans. Jacobs, Charles M. and ed. Schultz, Robert C., in Luther's Works, vol. 46 (Philadelphia: Westminster Press, 1967); idem, Temporal Authority: To What Extent It Should Be Obeyed, trans. Schindel, JJ. and ed. Brandt, W. I., in Luther's Works, vol. 45 (Philadelphia: Westminster Press, 1967); Ozment (fn. 51), 122–40; Skinner (fn. 51), Romans 13.

54 Cameron (fn. 51), 70–78.

55 Ibid., 99–110.

56 Wuthnow, Robert, Communities of Discourse (Cambridge: Harvard University Press, 1989), 131.

57 Ibid., 129–40. On the importance of print media, see Eisenstein, Elizabeth, “The Advent of Printing and the Protestant Revolt: A New Approach to the Disruption of Western Christendom,” Annales, E.S.C. 26 (1971); Cole, Richard G., “Propaganda as a Source of Reformation History,” Lutheran Quarterly 22 (1970); Davies, C. S. L., Peace, Print, and Protestantism (London: Paladin, 1977).

58 Ozment, Steven, The Age of Reform, 1220–1550: An Intellectual and Religious History of Late Me dieval and Reformation Europe (New Haven: Yale University Press, 1980), 222–23; Ozment (fn. 51), 9–86; Cameron (fn. 51), 20–37, 79–93.

59 McGrath, Alistair, The Intellectual Origins of the European Reformation (Oxford: Basil Blackwell, 1987); idem, Reformation Thought: An Introduction (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1988); Oberman, Heiko, The Harvest of Medieval Theology: Gabriel Biel and Late Medieval Nominalism (Cambridge: Harvard University Press, 1963); idem, Masters of the Reformation: The Emergence of a New Intellectual Climate in Europe, trans. Martin, Dennis (New York: Cambridge University Press, 1981).

60 Wuthnow (fn. 56), 25–51; Pettegree, Andrew, The Early Reformation in Europe (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1991); Moeller, Bernd, Imperial Cities and the Reformation, trans. Middlefort, H. C. Erik and Edwards, Mark U. Jr. (Philadelphia: Fortress Press, 1972); Brady, Thomas, “In Search of the Godly City: The Domestication of Religion in the German Urban Reformation,” in Hsia, R. P.-C., ed., The German People and the Reformation (Ithaca, N.Y.: Cornell University Press, 1988).

61 On Reformation historiography, see Ozment, Steven E., ed., Reformation Europe: A Guide to Re search (St. Louis, Mo.: Center for Reformation Research, 1982); Hsia (fn. 60); Wuthnow (fn. 56), 25–51; Pettegree (fn. 60); and Scribner, Bob, Porter, Roy, and Teich, Mikulcs, eds., The Reformation in National Context (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1994).

62 Cameron (fn. 51), 99–110,199–318; Ozment (fn. 51), 43–86.

63 For an example of the influence of a ruling elite, in this case Gorbachev, who himself converts to and empowers new ideas, see Robert G. Herman, “Identity, Norms, and National Security: The Soviet Foreign Policy Revolution and the End of the Cold War,” in Katzenstein (fn. 31).

64 Cameron (fn. 51), 199–318.

65 The method here corresponds to the technique of “process tracing” in Alexander George's method of structured focused comparison; see George, , “Case Studies and Theory Development: The Method of Structured, Focused Comparison,” in Lauren, Paul G., ed., Diplomacy: New Approaches in History, Theory, and Policy (New York: Free Press, 1979).

66 Holborn (fn. 10), 37–51, 137–39, 158, 162, 374; Chadwick, Owen, The Reformation (London: Penguin, 1964); Todd, John M., Reformation (New York: Doubleday, 1971), 230–39; Dickens, A. G., Reformation and Society in Sixteenth Century Europe (London: Thames and Hudson, 1966), 87106; Elton, R., Reformation Europe, 1517–1559 (London: Collins, 1963); Barraclough (fn. 10), 262–67.

67 Elton (fn. 66), 56; Chadwick (fn. 66), 67–71; Todd (fn. 66).

68 Barraclough (fn. 10), 374.

69 Cameron (fn. 51), 199–318.

70 Ibid., 210–92; on threat theory, see Walt, Stephen, The Origin of Alliances (Ithaca, N.Y.: Cornell University Press, 1987).

71 Holborn (fn. 10), 137–39, 158, 162, 284–95, 374; Chadwick (fn. 66), 67–71; Todd (fn. 67), 230–39; Dickens (fn. 66), 87–106; Elton (fn. 66); Barraclough (fn. 10); Gagliardo (fn. 10), 14; Cameron (fn. 51), 210–91.

72 Holborn (fn. 10), 37–51; Barraclough (fn. 10), 363–67; Gagliardo (fn. 10), 2–4.

73 See Cameron (fn. 51), 199–313.

74 Ibid., 101–3.

75 Ibid., 294–99; Carsten, F. L., Princes and Parliaments in Germanyfrom the Fifteenth to the Eight eenth Century (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1959); Dickens, A. G., The German Nation and Martin Luther (London: Edward Arnold, 1974); Brady (fn. 60).

76 McGrath (fn. 59); Oberman (fn. 59).

77 Lynch, John, Spain under the Habsburgs (New York: Oxford University Press, 1965); Koenigsberger, H. G. and Mosse, George L., Europe in the Sixteenth Century (New York: Holt, Rinehart, and Winston, 1968); Elliott, J. H., Europe Divided, 1559–1598 (London: Collins, 1968), 1129; Osiander (fn. 13), 27—29; Meinecke, Friedrich, Machiavellianism: The Doctrine of Raison d'Etat and Its Place Modern History, trans. Scott, Douglas (Boulder, Colo.: Westview Press, 1984), 1; Church (fn. 16), 283–340, 480–82; Richelieu (fn. 16).

78 Porter (fn. 24), 73.

79 Dickens (fn. 66), 164–87; Elliott (fn. 77), 116–25.

80 On the religious wars in France, see Thompson, James Westfall, The Wars of Religion in France, 1559–1576 (New York: Frederick Ungar, 1909). On the politiques, see Skinner (fn. 51), 249–54; and Church, William Farr, Constitutional Thought in Sixteenth-Century France (Cambridge: Harvard University Press, 1941), 194271. On Bodin, see Bodin, Jean, On Sovereignty: Four Chaptersfrom Six Books of the Commonwealth (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1992); and Franklin, Julian, Jean Bodin and the Rise of Absolutist Theory (Cambridge, U.K.: At the University Press, 1973).

81 Richelieu (fn. 16); Church (fn. 16).

82 Parker, Geoffrey, The Dutch Revolt (Ithaca, N.Y.: Cornell University Press, 1977), 126–68; idem, Spain and the Netherlands, 1559–1659 (Glasgow: Fontana Press, 1990), 5253; Lynch (fn. 77); Geyl (fn. 10); Israel (fn. 10), 106–230.

83 Parker (fn. 13), 155.

84 Roberts, Michael, The Early Vasas:A History of Sweden, 1523–1611 (Cambridge: Cambridge Uni versity Press, 1968), 6870; Anderson, N. K., The Reformation in Scandinavia and the Baltic, in Elton, G. R., ed., The New Cambridge Modern History (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1958), 146–53; Roberts (fn. 16,1967), 78.

85 Cameron (fn. 51), 381–88.

86 Ibid., 272–74.

87 For histories of the Thirty Years' War, see fn. 13.

88 See Tetlock and Belkin (fn. 25), 21–25.

89 Spruyt (fn. 1), 22–33.

90 Kaiser, David, Politics and War: European Conflictfrom Philip II to Hitler (Cambridge: Harvard University Press, 1990); Parker, Geoffrey, Europe in Crisis, 1598–1648 (Ithaca, N.Y.: Cornell University Press, 1979); Aston, Trevor, ed., Crisis in Europe, 1560–1660: Essaysfrom Past and Present (London: Routledge and Kegan Paul, 1965); Elliott, J. H., “The Decline of Spain,” in Aston; Kautsky, John H., The Politics of Aristocratic Empires (Chapel Hill: University of North Carolina Press, 1982), 341–46.

91 Downing (fn. 47).

92 Ibid.; Gagliardo (fn. 10); Barraclough (fn. 10), 376–80; Cipolla, Carl, ed., The Fontana Economic History of Europe: The Sixteenth and Seventeenth Centuries (Glasgow: William Collins Sons, 1974); Strauss, Gerald, Law, Resistance, and the State: The Opposition to Roman Law in Reformation (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1986); Moeller (fn. 60); Carsten (fn. 75), 165–78.

93 Parker (fn. 47,1976), 206; Roberts (fn. 16,1967), 78.

94 Parker (fn. 47,1976), 206; Israel (fn. 10), 106–230; DeVries, Jan, The Dutch Rural Economy in Golden Age, 1500—1700 (New Haven: Yale University Press, 1974); Pirenne, Henri, Early Democracies the Low Countries: Urban Society and Political Conflict in the Middle Ages and Renaissance (New Harper and Row, 1963); Smit, J. W., “The Netherlands Revolution,” in Forster, R. and Greene, J. P., eds., Preconditions of Revolution in Early Modern Europe (Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press, 1970); Geyl (fn. 10).

95 Parker (fn. 47, 1976), 206; Bonney, Richard, Political Change in France under Richelieu and Mazarin, 1624—1661 (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1978); idem, The King's Debts: Finance Politics in France, 1589—1661 (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1981); idem, Society and Government France under Richelieu andMazarin, 1624–1661 (London: Collier-Macmillan, 1988); Church (fn. 16), 81–102, 283–340; Elliott (fn. 77), 11–29; Wolfe, Martin, The Fiscal System of Renaissance France Haven: Yale University Press. 1972); Porter (fn. 24), 74; Tapie, Victor L., France in the Age of Louis XIII and Richelieu, trans. Lockie, D. McN. (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1984); Briggs, Robin, Early Modern France, 1560–1715 (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1977); Buisseret, David, Sully and the Growth of Centralized Government in France, 1598–1610 (London: Eyre and Spottiswoode, 1968).

96 Parker (fn. 47,1976), 206.

97 Elliott, H., Imperial Spain, 1469–1716 (London: Edward Arnold, 1963); Elliott (fn. 90); Kamen, Henry, Spain 1469–1714: A Society in Conflict (London: Longman, 1983); Elliott, J. H., Richelieu Olivares (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1984).

98 See Huntington, Samuel, The Clash of Civilizations and the Remaking of World Order (New York Simon and Schuster, 1996); Juergensmeyer, Mark, The New Cold War? Religious Nationalism the Secular State (Berkeley: University of California Press, 1993); Barber, Benjamin, Jihad vs. McWorld (New York: Times Books, 1995).

* Previous versions of this article were delivered at the John M. Olin Institute for Strategic Studies, Harvard University, 1994, the Watson Institute, Brown University, 1995, the Center of International Studies, Princeton University, 1996, the annual meeting of the American Political Science Association, San Francisco, 1996, and the Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation, La Jolla, California, May 1997. For providing fellowship support and facilities to conduct the research for the article, I thank the Center for International Affairs, Harvard University, the John M. Olin Institute for Strategic Studies, Harvard University, the Research Program on International Security at the Center of International Studies, Princeton University, and the Erasmus Institute, University of Notre Dame. For helpful comments on the manuscript, I thank Aaron Belkin, Vikram Chand, Jarat Chopra, Benjamin Cohen, Colin Elman, Peter Gourevitch, Rodney Bruce Hall, Bryan Hehir, Stanley Hoffmann, Robert Keohane, Elizabeth Kier, Stephen Krasner, Friedrich Kratochwil, Andrew Moravcsik, Henry Nau, John Owen, Timothy Shah, Daniel Thomas, and Barbara Walter.

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